06 November 2016

NEVADA: early voting complete statistics (preliminary) compared to 2012 - very likely Clinton "lock" on the state

Friday, November 4th, 2016, was exactly 4 days before the General Election on November 8, 2016 and it was the last day for early voting in the great state of Nevada,

Jon Ralston, of Ralston Reports, noted in both 2008 and in 2012 the D-edge in early voting and used it as a correct predictor of who would win the state, in those cases, Obama, both times.

The stats have come in for weeks 1 and 1 of early voting. Note: the week one stats have also been updated and likely the week two stats will be as well. So, for the sake of posterity, I have screenshotted everything also also input the data into an EXCEL table, which you can read HERE

HERE is the link to the NV website for early voting statistics in general.

HERE is the link to the document for week 1. It was update last on 11/5 at 2 PM, local time.

HERE is the link to the document for week 2. It was updated on 11/4 at 11:30 pm local time and is sure to be updated again, which is why I call these statistics preliminary.

And HERE is the link to the comparative (and cumulative) data from the 2012 GE.

Here are three screenshots that would be helpful:






Again, HERE is the Excel table that I put together, using the data from the website. There is a variance of exactly one vote in one Clark County category. See if you can find it.

Here are screenshots of the EXCEL table as well, with an explanation below:








This means that in the early voting in NV, which is probably about 75% of the total vote to be counted, the registered Ds have a +48,563 raw vote edge in the early voting (+6.94%), the registered R's have an edge of +2,543 votes in the absentee ballots (+3.76%), making for a total D edge of +46,020 raw votes, or exactly +6.00% in margin. These statistics, as predicted, track very closely to 2012. It should be noted that the topline percentages for the Ds and the Rs have both gone down somewhat, while Independent early voting rose just a bit. Overall, the registered D edge is down 0.84% from four years ago, a sure sign that Clinton has the edge here, because only about 25% of the vote is yet to come in and Trump would actually have to win big in the election day vote, which neither Romney nor McCain did. President Obama won NV in 2012 by +6.68%, which is very close to the +6.84% margin he enjoyed in the early vote overall.

Jon Ralston of Ralston reports, twittered this.




I am simply going to point to my politics blog posting from HERE (2012) and an WSJ article HERE (2008) to show that this metric has been an effective way to predict the race in Nevada in the past.

Hillary has a LOCK on Nevada. She has won the state, regardless of how tight the polls look right now. With Latino voter registration out the roof in NV this year and also Latino Voter participation way up, no one can say with any credibility that Trump is going to get a lot of crossover vote. He is not. He already has his problems with the Mormon corridor that also goes through this state and also with real Libertarians who are going to stick with Johnson no matter what.

I can safely call it now: HILLARY HAS a near "LOCK" on Nevada. It is possible for Trump to win the state, but in order to do so, he must perform a statistical feat we have not seen in this state in quite a long time.  Wait and see.

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