04 November 2016

Battleground/National Report, 03 November, 2016 - T-minus 5 days (Clinton 317/ Trump 191 / Tossup 30)

Thursday, November 3rd, 2016, was exactly 5 days before the General Election on November 8, 2016. 

Complete polling results for all states for 2016 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 11/03/2016 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked.

So, my methodology for doing averages in this wild-and-wooly-sometimes-3-way election was explained in the first Battleground Report, from 11 October, 2016.

The Battleground table is pretty darned detailed. The LEGEND for said table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the Battleground tab. However, I have changed the format a little bit - I think you will see how and why.

There were 10 national polls and 12 states received polls: AZ (2), AR (1), CA (1), CO (3), FL (3), GA (1), MI (1), NH (5), OH (1), PA (1), TX (3), UT (3).

The polls, especially from NH, have resulted in some significant statistical shifts in the battleground table but have not to-date affected the projected electoral outcome:

NH has entered the battlegrounds and is also very close to the tossups. OH has moved back into the tossups within the battlegrounds. UT-4 way has left the battlegrounds. And for the first time since this battleground report was started, the national average has moved into the battlegrounds. More about this later.

Based on these statistics, the electoral map without tossups is identical to the map from 11/2:

However, the map with tossups changes:

Clinton's topline EV remains stable at 317, for now, but the polling out of New Hamshire should be a warning sign for team Blue, to say the least.

Here the current PENUMBRA TAB, both for Clinton and Trump:

So, putting aside states like California and Arkansas, completely safe states, I see the polls from Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania as key to seeing where things are going, if at all.

New Hampshire received a huge infusion of 5 polls all in one day, all of it bad news for Clinton in a state she though was locked up. Four of those five are statistical ties, but the ARG shows Trump up by +5 in this state. Now, it could be a fluke, but maybe not. The real problem for Clinton here is that New Hampshire does not allow early voting, so she has not been able to "bank" early votes as has been the case in other critical states.  Now, officially, New Hampshire is not part of the Blue Wall of 242 EV - those are the states that have voted DEM for six cycles in a row. But it is supposed to be very close to the BLUE WALL and would bring it to 247. She has lost more than 4 points on aggregate practically overnight. Wait and see how this further develops.

On the other hand, polling from Colorado, especially from a Republican pollster with a hard right mathematical bias, is showing that that state is really still leaning very strongly toward Clinton. Magellan (R) has her up +6 on Trump in this state and U Colorado (Boulder) has her up by +10. However, another U shows a mathematical tie. Still, Clinton is running ahead of Obama's end-polling aggregate from 2012.

In Pennsylvania, the IPSOS/Reuters from 11/3 is showing the same results as the Qunnipiac from the day before: Clinton at roughly +6 when you look at all four calculations. Obama won nationally by +3.86 in 2012 (which is exactly where Clinton's national aggregate is right now) and he won PA by +5.4, so the stats are tracking pretty closely to each other right now.

In Georgia, before too many people want to declare the state as locked-up for Trump, he actually lost on aggregate. The Peach State is still very much in the battleground zone and Trump is nowhere close to 50 on aggregate, which means a likely runoff election in Georgia in December. I will remind that the Marist polls are of decidedly higher quality than the Emerson college polls, because Emerson does landline only polling. Nuff said.

But on balance, the pollling is also showing a strengthening for Trump in Utah and Texas, two states we should not even have to talk about were he winning.

Soon, we will all be bombarded with the final wave of polls and then we will all have a clearer picture of how things are shaping up.


The tracking list:

12 October 2016, Clinton +5.52, -0.21
13 October 2016, Clinton +6.61, +1.08*
14 October 2016, Clinton +6.75, +0.14
15 October 2016 - no battleground report posted
16 October 2016, Clinton +6,44, -0.31
17 October, 2016Clinton +7.35, +0.92*
18 October, 2016, Clinton +6.91, -0.45
19 October 2016, Clinton +6.64, -0.27
20 October 2016 - no battleground report posted
21 October 2016, Clinton +6.74, +0.10
23 October 2016, Clinton +6.02, -0.72
24 October 2016, Clinton +6.25, +0.23
25 October 2016, Clinton +6.37, +0.23
26 October 2016, Clinton +6.73, +0.36
27 October 2016, Clinton +6.55, -0.18
28 October 2016 - no battleground report posted
29 October 2016, Clinton +5.91, -0.64
30 October 2016, Clinton +5.81, -0.10

31 October 2016, Clinton +5.93, +0,12
01 November 2016 - no battleground report posted
02 November 2016, Clinton +5.02, -0.91
03 November 2016,  Clinton +3.86, -1.16
*Due to rounding, the difference is off by 0.01

On this corresponding day in 2012the national aggregate was Obama +0.22, so Clinton is currently +3.64 points ahead of where Obama was four years ago. On 11/02, she was +5.11 ahead, so she has dropped one entire point on this statistic over 2 days time. That is a statistically significant drop, for the second day in a row

If you look at the margins, you see a gentle rising and falling - often called the sinus-curve effect. I fully expected to see this.

And some end-statistics: I first started collecting 2016 presidential polls at the beginning of October 2013 and since then I have logged 4,706 matchups from 2,543 individual polls. You can find the breakdown to this stuff at the EXCEL table, in the tab that says "poll totals".

For past reference, here is the BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 11/01/2012, t-minus 5 days. And here is also the corresponding report from 10/30/2008.

One more thing: early voting has begun and there are lots of stats coming out of many states. The early vote report will be published on Sunday.


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