04 November 2016

Battleground/National Report, 02 November, 2016 - T-minus 6 days (Clinton 317/ Trump 209 / Tossup 12)

Wednesday, November 2nd, 2016, was exactly 6 days before the General Election on November 8, 2016. This battleground report has the newest stats for 11/1 and 11/2. There was no battleground report for 10/31, but rather, Statistikengst's ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE No. 2.

Complete polling results for all states for 2016 to-date are here as an EXCEL table for 11/02/2016 in GOOGLE DOCS. All polls are hyperlinked.

So, my methodology for doing averages in this wild-and-wooly-sometimes-3-way election was explained in the first Battleground Report, from 11 October, 2016.

The Battleground table is pretty darned detailed. The LEGEND for said table is HERE. In fact, you need to read it in order to develop an "eye" for the Battleground tab. However, I have changed the format a little bit - I think you will see how and why.

Once again, every state plus DC received a poll because of the UPI/CVoter data. But a number of key states received a number of polls on top of that and therefore the polling "DNA" for those states is data-rich, most notably, SC and PA. Exactly 100 polls and a total of 116 matchups were added on November 1st and 2nd, 2016.

We saw some contrarian polls in key states as well: in FL and in VA, and yet, the statistic didn't change much. Michigan has moved out of the battlegrounds and both Arizona and Florida have moved out of the tossups but are still within the battlegrounds, leaving Iowa and Nevada as the lone +1 or less tossup states:

This results in a slightly altered EV map for Clinton with tossups:

And without tossups:

I am publishing this report on November 4th only because I have been buried under work, so I have already seen some of the polling that came in on November 3rd - but sticking strictly to the data that came in by the end of Day on November 2nd,  none of the DEM "blue wall" has been endangered. However, I did see some polling from New Hampshire from 11/3 that leads me to believe that this may change, perhaps.

Now, without going into great detail, and indeed, the main barrage of end-polling is about to begin, it looks more and more as if Ohio and North Carolina are the states most likely to switch sides in this election. Obama consistently polled better in Ohio than Clinton has in the last 2 months, but Clinton has polled considerably better in North Carolina that Obama ever did. If nothing else were to switch, that would be a net -3 EV for Clinton. Although some news outlets like NBC are predicting that Trump will also pick-up Iowa and Clinton will retain Nevada, I am simply going to let the numbers speak for themselves, well aware of how early voting is proceeding in all of the most bitter of battlegrounds. With aggregates this close, GOTV = EVERYTHING.

But no matter how you slice it, Hillary Clinton is still ahead, and comfortably so.

Here is also a look at the current PENUMBRA TAB, both for Clinton and for Trump:


The tracking list:

12 October 2016, Clinton +5.52, -0.21
13 October 2016, Clinton +6.61, +1.08*
14 October 2016, Clinton +6.75, +0.14
15 October 2016 - no battleground report posted
16 October 2016, Clinton +6,44, -0.31
17 October, 2016Clinton +7.35, +0.92*
18 October, 2016, Clinton +6.91, -0.45
19 October 2016, Clinton +6.64, -0.27
20 October 2016 - no battleground report posted
21 October 2016, Clinton +6.74, +0.10
23 October 2016, Clinton +6.02, -0.72
24 October 2016, Clinton +6.25, +0.23
25 October 2016, Clinton +6.37, +0.23
26 October 2016, Clinton +6.73, +0.36
27 October 2016, Clinton +6.55, -0.18
28 October 2016 - no battleground report posted
29 October 2016, Clinton +5.91, -0.64
30 October 2016, Clinton +5.81, -0.10

31 October 2016, Clinton +5.93, +0,12
01 November 2016 - no battleground report posted
02 November 2013, Clinton +5.02, -0.91
*Due to rounding, the difference is off by 0.01

On this corresponding day in 2012the national aggregate was Romney +0.09%, so Clinton is currently +5.11 points ahead of where Obama was four years ago. On 10/31, she was +6.11 ahead, so she has dropped one entire point on this statistic over 2 days time. That is a statistically significant drop.

If you look at the margins, you see a gentle rising and falling - often called the sinus-curve effect. I fully expected to see this.

And some end-statistics: I first started collecting 2016 presidential polls at the beginning of October 2013 and since then I have logged 4,678 matchups from 2,643 individual polls. You can find the breakdown to this stuff at the EXCEL table, in the tab that says "poll totals".

For past reference, here is the BATTLEGROUND REPORT from 10/31/2012, t-minus 6 days. And here is also the corresponding report from 10/29/2008.

One more thing: early voting has begun and there are lots of stats coming out of many states. The early vote report will be published on Sunday.


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