24 February 2016

2016 polling round-up, 15-29.02.2016: D-vs-R Presidential Matchups

D vs. R matchups: NATIONAL POLLING


Morning Consult (R), released 17.02.2016:
1,763 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Clinton 43 / Trump 42, margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 44 / Cruz 38, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 42 / Kasich 36, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 44 / Bush 37, margin = Clinton +7
Clinton 45 / Carson 37, margin = Clinton +8
Clinton 45 / Rubio 35, margin = Clinton +10
Clinton 37 / Trump 35 Bloomberg 13, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 38 / Cruz 30 Bloomberg 14, margin = Clinton +8

Sanders 47 / Trump 38, margin = Sanders +9
Sanders 47 / Carson 32, margin = Sanders +15
Sanders 46 / Kasich 29, margin = Sanders +17
Sanders 48 / Rubio 31, margin = Sanders +17
Sanders 48 / Bush 30, margin = Sanders +18
Sanders 50 / Cruz 32, margin = Sanders +18
Sanders 38 / Trump 36 / Bloomberg 10, margin = Sanders +2
Sanders 41 / Cruz 28 Bloomberg 12, margin = Sanders +13

Suffolk, released 17.02.2016:
1,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 38 / Kasich 49, margin = Kasich +11
Clinton 42 / Rubio 48, margin = Rubio +6
Clinton 43 / Trump 45, margin = Trump +2
Clinton 44 / Cruz 45, margin = Cruz +1
xxx

Sanders 42 / Rubio 46, margin = Rubio +4
Sanders 41 / Kasich 44, margin = Kasich +3
Sanders 42 / Cruz 44, margin = Cruz +2
Sanders 43 / Trump 44, margin = Trump +1

Quinnipiac, released 18.02.2016:
1,342 RV, MoE = +/-2.7

Clinton 39 / Kasich 47, margin = Kasich +8
Clinton 41 / Rubio 48, margin = Rubio +7
Clinton 43 / Cruz 46, margin = Cruz +3
Clinton 43 / Bush 44, margin = Bush +1
Clinton 44 / Trump 43, margin = Clinton +1

Sanders 45 / Kasich 41, margin = Sanders +4
Sanders 47 / Rubio 41, margin = Sanders +6
Sanders 48 / Trump 42, margin = Sanders +6
Sanders 49 / Cruz 39, margin = Sanders +10
Sanders 49 / Bush 39, margin = Sanders +10
Sanders 39 / Cruz 33 Bloomberg 14, margin = Sanders +6
Sanders 38 / Trump 38 Bloomberg 12, margin = TIE

Fox News Poll, released 18.02.2016:
1,031 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 44 / Rubio 48, margin = Rubio +4
Clinton 44 / Kasich 47, margin = Kasich +3
Clinton 45 / Cruz 46, margin = Cruz +1
Clinton 45 / Bush 46, margin = Bush +1
Clinton 47 / Trump 42, margin = Clinton +5
Clinton 39 / Trump 37 Bloomberg 17, margin = Clinton +2

Sanders 53 / Trump 38, margin = Sanders +15
Sanders 46 / Trump 35 Bloomberg 12, margin = Sanders +11


Ipsos/Reuters, released 19.02.2016:
1,213 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 44 / Trump 37, margin = Clinton +7
Clinton 46 / Cruz 29, margin = Clinton +17
Clinton 38 / Trump 34 Bloomberg 11, margin = Clinton +4
Clinton 40 / Cruz 25 Bloomberg 11, margin = Clinton +15

Sanders 47 / Cruz 29, margin = Sanders +18
Sanders 44 / Trump 35, margin = Sanders +9
Sanders 39 / Trump 33 Bloomberg 11, margin = Sanders +6
Sanders 44 / Cruz 24 Bloomberg 10, margin = Sanders +20


CNN/ORC, released 01.03.2016:
920 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 47 / Rubio 50, margin = Rubio +3
Clinton 48 / Cruz 49, margin = Cruz +1
Clinton 52 / Trump 44, margin = Clinton +8
Clinton 38 / Trump 37 Bloomberg 23, margin = Clinton +1

Sanders 53 / Rubio 45, margin = Sanders +8
Sanders 55 / Trump 43, margin = Sanders +12
Sanders 57 / Cruz 40, margin = Sanders +17
Sanders 44 / Trump 36 Bloomberg 18, margin = Sanders +8

D vs. R matchups: STATE POLLING



North Carolina:

SUSA/TWC News, released 17.02.2016:
1,250 LV, MoE = +/-2.8

Clinton 42 / Cruz 49, margin = Rubio +7
Clinton 43 / Cruz 48, margin = Cruz +5
Clinton 43 / Trump 45, margin = Trump +2

Sanders 44 / Trump 44, margin = TIE
Sanders 45 / Rubio 44, margin = Sanders +1
Sanders 46 / Cruz 42, margin = Sanders +4

Elon University, released 22.02.2016:
1,530 LV, MoE = +2.51

Clinton 45 / Rubio 48, margin = Rubio +3
Clinton 46 / Cruz 46, margin = TIE
Clinton 47 / Trump 41, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 37 / Trump 31 Bloomberg 17, margin = Clinton +6

Sanders 43 / Rubio 46, margin = Rubio +3
Sanders 47 / Cruz 43, margin = Sanders +3
Sanders 48 / Trump 40, margin = Sanders +8



PPP (D), released 22.02.2016:
1,291 RV, MoE = +/-2.7

Clinton 40 / Rubio 49, margin = Rubio +9
Clinton 43 / Cruz 46, margin = Cruz +3
Clinton 42 / Bush 44, margin = Bush +2
Clinton 43 / Trump 44, margin = Trump +1

Sanders 41 / Rubio 45, margin = Rubio +4
Sanders 43 / Cruz 43, margin = TIE
Sanders 43 / Bush 42, margin = Sanders +1
Sanders 44 / Trump 42, margin = Sanders +2





xxxx

2016 polling round-up, 15-29.02.2016: GOP Nomination

GOP NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING

Quinnipiac, released 17.02.2016:
1,342 RV, MoE = +/-2.7
of them, 602 RRV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 39
Rubio 19
Cruz 18
Kasich 6
Carson 4
Bush 4

Margin: Trump +20


Morning Consult (R), released 17.02.2016:
1,763 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 662 RRV

Trump 41
Rubio 14
Cruz 12
Carson 11
Bush 7
Kasich 3

Margin: Trump +20


Suffolk, released 17.02.2016:
1,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 358 RLV

Trump 35
Cruz 20
Rubio 17
Kasich 7
Bush 6
Carson 4

Margin: Trump +20


NBC/WSJ, released 17.02.2016:
800 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 400 RLV

Cruz 28
Trump 26
Rubio 17
Kasich 11
Carson 10
Bush 4

Margin: Cruz +2

CBS News, released 18.02.2016:
2,007 Adults
of them, 581 RLV

Trump 35
Cruz 18
Rubio 12
Kasich 11
Carson 6
Bush 4

Margin: Trump +17

YouGov / The Economist, released 18.02.2016:
2,000 Adult, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, 472 RLV, MoE = unknown

Trump 39
Cruz 19
Rubio 16
Kasich 11
Carson 7
Bush 6

Margin: Trump +20

IPSOS/Reuters, released 18.02.2016:
1,473 Adults, MoE = +/-2.9
of them, 579 RRV, MoE = +/-4.9

Trump 40
Cruz 17
Rubio 11
Carson 10
Kasich 9
Bush 9

Margin: Trump +23

Fox News Poll, released 18.02.2016:
1,031 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 404 RLV

Trump 36
Cruz 19
Rubio 19
Bush 9
Carson 9
Kasich 8

Margin: Trump +17

Ipsos/Reuters, released 19.02.2016:
1,213 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 476 RRV

Trump 40
Cruz 17
Rubio 11
Carson 10
Bush 9
Kasich 9

Margin: Trump +23

NBC/Survey Monkey, released 23.02.2016:
11,662 Adults, MoE = +/-1.0
of them, 3,368 RRV, MoE = less than +/-1.5

Trump 36
Cruz 19
Rubio 16
Carson 8
Kasich 8
(Bush 4)

Margin: Trump +17

Rasmussen, released 23.02.2016:
697 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 36
Rubio 21
Cruz 17
Kasich 12
Carson 8

Margin: Trump +15

RMU (Robert Morris University), released 24.02.2016 (taken 11-15.02.2016):
1,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 252 RLV, MoE = +/-7.0

Trump 37
Cruz 19
Rubio 14
Carson 13
Bush 6
Kasich 4

Margin: Trump +18



xxx

GOP NOMINATION: STATE POLLING


Arizona: 

MBQF Consulting (R), released 23.02.2016:
736 RLV, MoE = +/-3.61

Trump 35
Rubio 23
Cruz 14
Kasich 7

Margin: Trump +12


Georgia:

Landmark Communications /Rosetta Stone / WSB TV, released 22.02.2016:
500 RLV, MoE = +/-4.5

Trump 32
Rubio 23
Cruz 19
Kasich 8
Carson 8

Margin: Trump +9

Opinion Savvy / FOX 5 Atlanta, released 23.02.2016:
745 RLV, MoE = +/-3.6

Trump 34
Rubio 22
Cruz 20
Kasich 9
Carson 8

Margin: Trump +12



Illinois:

SIU: Simon Poll, released 22.02.2016:
691 LV, MoE = +/-3.7

Trump 28
Cruz 15
Rubio 14
Kasich 13
Bush 8
Carson 6

Margin: Trump +13


Massachusetts:

Emerson College, released 22.02.2016:
289 RLV, MoE = +/-5.7

Trump 50
Rubio 16
Kasich 13
Cruz 10
Carson 2

Margin: Trump +34

Michigan:

Mitchell Research (R) / Fox News Detroit, released 18.02.2016:
394 RLV, MoE = +/-4.94

Trump 41
Cruz 11
Kasich 11
Rubio 10
Carson 7
Bush 5

Margin: Trump +10


Glengariff / Detroit News, released 19.02.2016:
600 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 25
Cruz 15
Rubio 12
Kasich 11
Carson 9
Bush 5

Margin: Trump +10

ARG, released 20.02.2016:
400 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 37
Kasich 17
Cruz 12
Rubio 12
Carson 9
Bush 4

Margin: Trump +10



Nevada:

CNN/ORC, released 17.02.2016:
1,006 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 245 RLV, MoE = ?

Trump 45
Rubio 19
Cruz 17
Carson 7
Kasich 5
Bush 1

Margin: Trump +26

Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN, released 18.02.2016:
687 RLV, MoE = +/-3.0

Trump 39
Cruz 23
Rubio 19
Kasich 9
Carson 5
Bush 5

Margin: Trump +16

New Jersey:

Rutgers / Eagleton, released 23.02.2016:
227 RRV, MoE = +/-7.0

Trump 38
Rubio 11
Cruz 10
Kasich 8
Bush 7
Carson 5

Margin: Trump +27


New Mexico:

Albequerque Journal / Research and Polling, released 20.02.2016:
403 RLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Cruz 25
Trump 24
Rubio 19
Carson 6
Bush 5
Kasich 4

Margin: Cruz +1


North Carolina:

SUSA/TWC News, released 17.02.2016:
1,650 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 437 RLV, MoE = +/-4.38

Trump 36
Cruz 18
Rubio 18
Carson 10
Kasich 7
Bush 5

Margin: Trump +18


Elon University, released 22.02.2016:
1,530 LV, MoE = +2.51
of them, 733 RLV

Trump 28
Cruz 19
Rubio 16
Carson 10
Kasich 7
Bush 4

Margin: Trump +9


PPP (D), released 22.02.2016:
1,291 RV, MoE = +/-2.7
of them, 597 RLV

Trump 29
Cruz 19
Rubio 16
Kasich 11
Carson 9
Bush 7


Margin: Trump +10



Ohio:

Quinnipiac, released 23.02.2016:
759 RLV, MoE = +/-3.6

Trump 31
Kasich 26
Cruz 21
Rubio 13
Carson 5

Margin: Trump +5


South Carolina:

Gravis (R) / OANN, released 15.02.2016:
1788 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,281 RLV, MoE = +/-3.0



Margin: Trump +14

PPP (D), released 16.02.2016:
897 RLV, MoE = +/-3.3

Trump 35
Rubio 18
Cruz 18
Kasich 10
Bush 7
Carson 7

Margin: Trump +17

Hypothetical 4,3 and 2-way races:

Trump 39
Rubio 21
Cruz 20
Bush 12
Margin: Trump +18

Trump 40
Rubio 28
Cruz 22
Margin: Trump +12

Trump 50 / Bush 40, Trump +10
Trump 48 / Cruz 38, Trump +10
Rubio 47 / Cruz 37, Rubio +10
Trump 46 / Rubio 45, Trump +1

There were also some interesting internal questions:



Interesting, but not all that surprising.

CNN/ORC, released 17.02.2016:
1,006 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 404 RLV, MoE = ?

Trump 38
Cruz 22
Rubio 14
Bush 6
Carson 6
Kasich 4

Margin: Trump +16

ARG, released 17.02.2016:
400 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 33
Rubio 16
Cruz 14
Kasich 14
Bush 9
Carson 3

Margin: Trump +13

Monmouth, released 17.02.2016:
400 RLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Trump 35
Cruz 19
Rubio 17
Kasich 9
Bush 8
Carson 7

Margin: Trump +16

Bloomberg /Selzer, released 17.02.2016:
502 RLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Trump 36
Cruz 17
Rubio 15
Bush 13
Carson 9
Kasich 7

Margin: Trump +19

Emerson College, released 17.02.2016:
375 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 33
Cruz 20
Rubio 19
Bush 9
Kasich 9
Carson 5

Margin: Trump +13

FOX News Poll, released 18.02.2016:
759 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 32
Cruz 19
Rubio 15
Bush 9
Kasich 9
Carson 6

Margin: Trump +13

Harper Polling (R), released 18.02.2016:
599 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 29
Cruz 17
Rubio 15
Bush 14
Kasich 13
Carson 8

Margin: Trump +12

ARG, released 18.02.2016:
400 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 33
Rubio 20
Kasich 15
Cruz 13
Bush 8
Carson 3

Margin: Trump +13

ARG, released 19.02.2016:
400 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 34
Rubio 22
Kasich 14
Cruz 13
Bush 9
Carson 4

Margin: Trump +12

NBC/WSJ/Marist, released 19.02.2016:
2,567 Adults, MoE = +/-1.9
of them, 722 RLV

Trump 28
Crush 23
Rubio 15
Bush 13
Kasich 9
Carson 9

Margin: Trump +5

Emerson College, released 19.02.2016:
418 RLV, MoE = +/-4.7

Trump 36
Rubio 19
Cruz 18
Bush 10
Kasich 10
Carson 6

Margin: Trump +13

Opinion Savvy, released 19.02.2016:
780 RLV, MoE = +/-3.5

Trump 27
Rubio 24
Cruz 19
Bush 11
Kasich 8
Carson 7

Margin: Trump +3

Clemson University Palmetto Poll, released 19.02.2016:
650 RLV, MoE = +/-3.0

Trump 28
Cruz 19
Rubio 15
Bush 10
Kasich 9
Carson 6

Margin: Trump +9

National Research, Inc (R), released 19.02.2016:**
500 RRV, MoE = not listed

Trump 32
Cruz 19
Rubio 18
Bush 8
Kasich 7
Carson 6

Margin: Trump +9

Texas:

UT / Texas Tribune, released 22.02.2016:
324 DLV, MoE = +/-5.44

Cruz 37
Trump 29
Rubio 15
Kasich 5
Carson 4
(others who long dropped out, generally 1)

Margin: Cruz +8

Emerson College, released 24.02.2016:
446 RLV, MoE = +/-4.6

Cruz 29
Trump 28
Rubio 25
Kasich 9
Carson 4

Margin: Cruz +1


Utah:

Dan Jones and Associates (R), released 22.02.2016:
625 Adults, MoE = +/-3.92
of them, 305 RRV

Rubio 24
Cruz 22
Trump 18
Bush 9
Carson 9
Kasich 4

Margin: Rubio +2

Vermont:

Castleton University / Vermont Public Radio, released 22.02.2016:
895 Adults, MoE = +/-3.27
of them, 115 RLV (this polling group is way too small to be effective)

Trump 33
Rubio 15
Kasich 14
Cruz 8
Bush 6
Carson 4

Margin: Trump +18


Virginia:

Christopher Newport University, released 16.02.2016:
735 RV, MoE = +/-4.3
of them, 368 RLV, MoE = +/-5.6

Trump 28
Rubio 22
Cruz 19
Kasich 7
Carson 7
Bush 4

Margin: Trump +6

West Virginia:

R.L. Repass, released 22.02.2016:
411 LV, MoE = +/-4.9
of them, 159 RLV, MoE = +7 or more


Trump 40
Cruz 20
Rubio 15
Carson 10
Kasich 6
Bush 5

Margin: Trump +20


xxx

2016 polling round-up, 15-29.02.2016: DEM Nomination

DEM NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING


Quinnipiac, released 17.02.2016:
1,342 RV, MoE = +/-2.7
of them, 563 DRV, MoE = +/-4.1

Clinton 44
Sanders 42

Margin: Clinton +2

Morning Consult (R), released 17.02.2016:
1,763 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 829 DRV

Clinton 47
Sanders 39

Margin: Clinton +8



Suffolk, released 17.02.2016:
1,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 319 DLV

Clinton 50
Sanders 40

Margin: Clinton +10


YouGov / The Economist, released 18.02.2016:
2,000 Adult, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, D72 DLV, MoE = unknown

Clinton 53
Sanders 39

Margin: Clinton +14

IPSOS/Reuters, released 18.02.2016:
1,473 Adults, MoE = +/-2.9

of them, 628 DRV, MoE = +/-4.5

Clinton 53
Sanders 42

Margin: Clinton +11

NBC/WSJ, released 18.02.2016:
800 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 400 DLV

Clinton 53
Sanders 42

Margin: Clinton +11

Fox News Poll, released 18.02.2016:
1,031 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 404 DLV

Sanders 47
Clinton  44

Margin: Sanders +3

CBS News, released 19.02.2016:
2,007 Adults, of them, 264 DLV (polling group is FAR too small, this is shameful)

Clinton 47
Sanders 39

Margin: Clinton +8

Ipsos/Reuters, released 19.02.2016:
1,213 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 543 DRV

Clinton 53
Sanders 42

Margin: Clinton +11


NBC/Survey Monkey, released 23.02.2016:
11,662 Adults, MoE = +/-1.0
of them, 3,338 DRV, MoE = less than +/-1.5

Clinton 51
Sanders 40

Margin: Clinton +11


RMU (Robert Morris University), released 24.02.2016 (taken 11-15.02.2016):
1,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 287 DLV, MoE = +/-7.0

Clinton 57
Sanders 36

Margin: Clinton +21

xxxx


DEM NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Alabama:

PPP (D) / American Family Voices, released 17.02.2016:
500 DLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Clinton 59
Sanders 31

Margin: Clinton +28



Arkansas:

PPP (D) / American Family Voices, released 17.02.2016:
523 DLV, MoE = +/-4.3

Clinton 57
Sanders 32

Margin: Clinton +25

Georgia:

PPP (D) / American Family Voices, released 17.02.2016:
500 DLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Clinton 60
Sanders 26

Margin: Clinton +34

Landmark Communications /Rosetta Stone / WSB TV, released 22.02.2016:
700 DLV, MoE = +/-3.7

Clinton 72
Sanders 20

Margin: Clinton +52

Opinion Savvy / Fox 5 Atlanta, released 23.02.2016:
491 DLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Clinton 57
Sanders 29

Margin: Clinton +38


Illinois:

SIU: Simon Poll, released 22.02.2016:
691 LV, MoE = +/-3.7
of them, 422 DLV

Clinton 51
Sanders 32

Margin: Clinton +19


Louisiana:

PPP (D) / American Family Voices, released 17.02.2016:
548 DLV, MoE = +/-4.2

Clinton 60
Sanders 29

Margin: Clinton +31

Maryland:

Groucher Poll, released 24.02.2016:
307 DLV, MoE = +/-5.6

Clinton 58
Sanders 28

Margin: Clinton +30


Massachusetts:

PPP (D) / American Family Voices, released 17.02.2016:
538 DLV, MoE = +/-4.2

Sanders 49
Clinton 42

Margin: Sanders +7


Emerson College, released 22.02.2016:
417 DLV, MoE = +/-4.75

Sanders 46Clinton 46

Margin: TIE

Michigan:

PPP (D) / American Family Voices, released 17.02.2016:
500 DLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Clinton 50
Sanders 40

Margin: Clinton +10

Mitchell Research (R) / Fox News Detroit, released 19.02.2016:
430 DLV, MoE = +/-4.69

Clinton 60
Sanders 27

Margin: Clinton +33

ARG, released 20.02.2016:
400 DLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Clinton 53
Sanders 40

Margin: Clinton +13


Mississippi:

PPP (D) / American Family Voices, released 17.02.2016:
515 DLV, MoE = +/-4.3

Clinton 60
Sanders 26

Margin: Clinton +34


Nevada:

CNN/ORC, released 17.02.2016:
1,006 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 282 DLV, MoE = ?

Clinton 48
Sanders 47

Margin: Clinton +1

Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN, released 18.02.2016:
516 DLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 53
Sanders 47

Margin: Clinton +6

New Jersey:

Rutgers / Eagleton, released 23.02.2016:
304 DRV, MoE = +/-6,2

Clinton 55
Sanders 32

Margin: Clinton +23


North Carolina:

SUSA/TWC News, released 17.02.2016:
1,650 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 449 DLV, MoE = +/-4.7

Clinton 51
Sanders 36

Margin: Clinton +15

Elon University, released 22.02.2016:
1,530 LV, MoE = +2.51
of them, 728 DLV

Clinton 47
Sanders 37

Margin: Clinton +10

PPP (D), released 22.02.2016:
1,291 RV, MoE = +/-2.7
of them, 575 DLV

Clinton 52
Sanders 35


Margin: Clinton +17

Ohio:

Quinnipiac, released 23.02.2016:
518 DLV, MoE = +/-4,3

Clinton 55
Sanders 40

Margin: Clinton +15



Oklahoma:

PPP (D) / American Family Voices, released 17.02.2016:
542 DLV, MoE = +/-4.2

Clinton 46
Sanders 44

Margin: Clinton +2


South Carolina:

Gravis (R) / OANN, released 15.02.2016:
1788 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 5,07 DLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Margin: Clinton +18



PPP (D), released 16.02.2016:
525 DLV, MoE = +/-4.3

Clinton 55
Sanders 34

Margin: Clinton +21


CNN/ORC, released 17.02.2016:
1,006 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 280 DLV, MoE = ?

Clinton 56
Sanders 38

Margin: Clinton +18

ARG, released 17.02.2016:
400 DLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Clinton 61
Sanders 31

Margin: Clinton +30

Monmouth, released 18.02.2016:
403 DLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Clinton 59
Sanders 30

Margin: Clinton +29

ARG, released 18.02.2016:
400 DLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Clinton 59
Sanders 33

Margin: Clinton +26

Bloomberg / Selzer, released 18.02.2016:
403 DLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Clinton 53
Sanders 31

Margin: Clinton +22

Fox News, released 18.02.2016:
1,401 LV, MoE =
of them, 642 DLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 56
Sanders 28

Margin: Clinton +27

ARG, released 19.02.2016:
400 DLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Clinton 61
Sanders 32

Margin: Clinton +29

NBC/WSJ/Marist, released 19.02.2016:
2,567 Adults, MoE = +/-1.9
of them, 425 DLV

Clinton 60
Sanders 32

Margin: Clinton +28


xxx

Tennessee:

PPP (D) / American Family Voices, released 17.02.2016:
500 DLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Clinton 58
Sanders 32

Margin: Clinton +26

UT / Texas Tribune, released 22.02.2016:
324 DLV, MoE = +/-5.44

Clinton 54
Sanders 44

Margin: Clinton +10


Texas:

PPP (D) / American Family Voices, released 17.02.2016:
515 DLV, MoE = +/-4.3

Clinton 57
Sanders 34

Margin: Clinton +23

Emerson College, released 24.02.2016:
328 DLV, MoE = +/-5.4

Clinton 56
Sanders 40

Margin: Clinton +16


Utah:

Dan Jones and Associates (R), released 22.02.2016:
625 Adults, MoE = +/-3.92
of them, 305 RRV

Clinton 51
Sanders 44

Margin: Clinton +7



Vermont:

PPP (D) / American Family Voices, released 17.02.2016:
693 DLV, MoE = +/-3.7

Sanders 86
Clinton 10

Margin: Sanders +76

Castleton University / Vermont Public Radio, released 22.02.2016:
895 Adults, MoE = +/-3.27
of them, 344 DLV

Sanders 78
Clinton 13

Margin: Sanders +65


Virginia:

Christopher Newport University, released 16.02.2016:
735 RV, MoE = +/-4.3
of them, 286 DLV, MoE = +/-7.3

Clinton 52
Sanders 40

Margin: Clinton +12

The MoE for the Democratic portion of this poll is WAY too high. This is simply not acceptable in any real polling world.


PPP (D) / American Family Voices, released 17.02.2016:
500 DLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Clinton 56
Sanders 34

Margin: Clinton +22



West Virginia:

R.L. Repass, released 22.02.2016:
411 LV, MoE = +/-4.9
of them, 159 RLV, MoE = +7 or more


Sanders 57
Clinton 29

Margin: Sanders +28






15 February 2016

Polling Wrap-Up, 01-14.02.2016 (except New Hampshire)

So, here is all of the polling for the first two weeks of February, 2016, excepting New Hampshire, for which I put out a special polling round-up HERE, on 09.02.2016, about one week ago. Not quite the blizzard of polls from the end of January, it was still a huge amount: 159 (or more) matchups.

The state polling has brought us once again some interesting state polls. Here again a map of the USA, with the states for which polled were released between 01-01.02.2016:



All of the states you see colored in green are states where polls were released in the first two weeks of February. All of them except one were polled for either the GOP nomination, the DEM nomination, or both. Virginia was polled only for D-vs-R presidential GE matchups.

And away we go:

GOP NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING

Baseline from the end of January: Trump +20.12

Morning Consult (R), released 01.02.2016: Trump +29
NBC News, Survey Monkey, released 02.02.2016: Trump +19
PPP (D), released 04.02.2016: Trump +4
IPSOS/Reuters, released 04.02.2016Trump +22 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +22 (RRV only), Trump +24 (IRV, R-leaning only)
Quinnipiac, released 05.02.2016: Trump +9
Week 1 margin: Trump +16.6

Rasmussen, released 08.02.2016: Trump +10
Morning Consult, released 09.02.2016: Trump +19 (big drop from the Morning Consult from the week before)
NBC / News Monkey, released 09.11.2016: Trump +15
IPSOS/Reuters, released 10.02.2016Trump +13 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +13 (RRV only), Trump +16 (IRV, R-leaning only)
Morning Consult (R), released 12.02.2016: Trump +27
Week 2 Margin (w/o repeaters):  Trump +16.25

That makes for 10 national polls in 2 weeks, four of them being repeaters.  Trump's weekly aggregate moved down from +20.1 at the end of January to +16.6 in the first week of February and to +16.3 in the second week.  The PPP (D) poll, in very stark contrast to the 2 polls before it, looks like a mathematical outlier, but the Quinnipiac poll that followed also shows Trump in a single digit lead. In all but one poll (Rasmussen), Texas Senator Ted Cruz is in second place.

So, although we see the race tightening statistically somewhat in national polling, Donald Trump is still very much in the lead across the board.


GOP NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Alabama:
Overtime Politics, released 04.02.2016: Trump +16

Arkansas:
Hendrix College / Talk Business, released 07.02.2016: Cruz +4 (3-way tie)

Florida:
Florida Southern College Center (FSCS), released 09.02.2016: Trump +7 (Rubio in 2nd)

Georgia:
Landmark Communications (R), Rosetta Stone / WSB TV-2/4, released 05.02.2016: Trump +9

Iowa:
Quinnipiac, released 01.02.2016 (on the day of the IA caucuses): Trump +7
(This poll came in just before the caucuses actually began that day)

Massachusetts:
Overtime Politics, released 12.02.2016: Trump +31

Michigan:
"Target Insyght" / MRS / IMP, released 05.02.2016: Trump +14
Mitchell Research (R) / Fox 2, released 08.02.2016: Trump +21
Average: Trump +17.5

New York:
Siena, released 08.02.2016: Trump +18

North Carolina:

High Point University, released 08.02.2016 Trump +4 (statistical 2-to-3 way tie)

Oklahoma:
Sooner Poll, released 09.02.2016: Trump +5

South Carolina:

Opinion Savvy / Augusta Chronicle / FOX 5, released 12.02.2016: Trump +16.7
CBS News / YouGov, released 14.02.2016: Trump +22
ARG, released 12.02.2016: Trump +20
Average: Trump +19.6

That makes for 14 polls from 11 states, plus the 29 polls from New Hampshire, already recorded HERE, for a  total of 43 GOP state polls from 12 states. Trump has won 41 of those 43 and two of them are statistical ties. The huge margin out of Massachusetts (Trump +31) is worth noting, also the lean margin for him out of Oklahoma (The Sooner Poll is the "gold standard" for that state).

The long and short of it is: so long as there are many anti-Trumps in the mixt, he is going to sail easily to the nomination.  However, the latest ARG shows Kasich in 2nd. ARG was also the pollster who showed Kasich in 2nd in New Hampshire.  If Bush drops out and his support goes to Kasich, who may continue picking up delegates, and Cruz will certainly be picking up delegates, this could become a 3-4 man race, at least for a while. After Rubio crashed in New Hampshire, his important testing ground is South Carolina, where the demographic cards are stacked against him.

GOP grand total: 43 state polls + 10 national polls = 53 matchups (at least).

All of the toplines, survey sizes, MoEs and some important internals and crosstabs for the GOP polling can be found HERE.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------


DEM NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING

Baseline from the end of January, 2016: Clinton +15.8

Morning Consult (R), released 01.02.2016: Clinton +16
NBC News, Survey Monkey, released 02.02.2016: Clinton +11
PPP (D), released 04.02.2016: Clinton +21
IPSOS/Reuters, released 04.02.2016Clinton +11 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +15 (DRV only), Sanders +5 (IRV, D-leaning only)
Quinnipiac, released 05.02.2016: Clinton +2
Rasmussen, released 05.02.2016: Clinton +18
Week 1 average: Clinton +13.8

Morning Consult, released 09.02.2016: Clinton +13
NBC / News Monkey, released 09.11.2016: Clinton +12
IPSOS/Reuters, released 10.02.2016Clinton +2 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +12 (DRV only), Sanders +29 (IRV, D-leaning only)
Morning Consult (R), released 12.02.2016: Clinton +7
Week 2 average: Clinton +10.3


That makes for 10 national polls over the last two week, of which Clinton has won all 10. We see two interesting parallels to the GOP national polling: first, we see a number that looks like an outlier. For the GOP, it was PPP (D). For the DEMS, it is Quinnipiac. We also see very varied numbers from the three Morning Consult polls, just as we saw on the GOP side.

There is no doubt that her margin over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is narrowing, or maybe not. Among registered and likely Democrats, she is still way on top. Among Independents who are likely to vote in the D primaries in states that have semi-open primaries/caucuses, Sanders dominates.

But no matter how you slice it, Clinton is still in the driver's seat.



DEM NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Alabama:
Overtime Politics, released 04.02.2016: Clinton +11

Arkansas:
Hendrix College / Talk Business, released 07.02.2016: Clinton +32

Florida:
Florida Southern College Center (FSCS), released 09.02.2016: Clinton +17

Georgia:
Landmark Communications (R), Rosetta Stone / WSB TV-2/4, released 05.02.2016: Clinton +41.8

Iowa:
Quinnipiac, released 01.02.2016 (on the day of the Iowa Caucuses): Sanders +3
(was released shortly before the caucuses began that day)

Maine:
Overtime Politics, released 06.02.2016: Sanders +15

Massachusetts:
Overtime Politics, released 12.02.2016: Clinton +6

Michigan:
"Target Insyght" / MRS / IMP, released 05.02.2016: Clinton +32
Mitchell Research (R) / Fox 2, released 08.02.2016: Clinton +29
Average: Clinton +25.5

Nevada:

TargetPoint / Washington Free Beacon, released 12.02.2016: -TIE- (45/45)
analysis below

New York:

Siena, released 08.02.2016: Clinton +21

North Carolina:

High Point University, released 08.02.2016: Clinton +26

Oklahoma:

Sooner Poll, released 09.02.2016: Clinton +16

South Carolina:

CBS News / YouGov, released 14.02.2016: Clinton +19
ARG, released 14.02.2016: Clinton +38
Average: Clinton +28.5


That makes for 15 polls from 13 states, plus the 26 DEM polls from New Hampshire, which you can see HERE. Total: 41 polls from 14 states on the Democratic side.

Excluding Iowa, as the poll literally came in just hours before the caucuses began, Sanders is leading in one state: Maine (according to Overtime Politics, a scenario I see as very plausible). It is also a lean margin for Clinton in Massachusetts, also understandable, considering the hard-Left tilt of the state over all. But everywhere else, save Nevada (at least for now), Clinton is dominating.  Especially noteworthy are the margins in Michigan and both Carolinas. In South Carolina, it is actually quite impossible to have two margins from polls released the very same day, where one margin is double the size of the other margin and both of them are massive landslide margins.  In most all polling, Clinton has been at about +40 here and I suspect that her landslide in SC will be larger than Sanders' was in New Hampshire.

Now, to this quirky little poll from Nevada, here is some food for thought:

TargetPoint is a Republican polling firm and many of the extra questions they asked in the poll come dangerously close to being "push-poll" questions. Also, the Washington Free Beacon is a hard Right leaning news publication. In fact, it is so hyperpartisan that you can find this on the permanent front page right now:


So, why a so unbelievably hard-Right publication would want to sign up with a Republican pollster to test a Democratic race is somewhat of a mystery to me.  But THIS data point tells me how off kilter the poll is:



Considerably more than just 17% of NV Democrats belong to a Union. In fact, the Culinary Union vote from Las Vegas will be the deciding factor in the NV primary, and that majority of the Culinary Union workers from Las Vegas are Latinos, who are swinging extraordinarly heavily for Clinton.

Also, the poll lied about "likely Democrats". Only 67% of the poll respondents are definitely going to caucus, and only 72% of all of the survey respondents are Democrats.


I would really like to know exactly WHO paid for this poll. And I would put good money on the table that it was either the Trump or the Cruz campaign. Anyone wanna bet?

Facit: Sanders is making a dent in Clinton's margins in some places and he may actually have an advantage in some caucus states, but Clinton is absolutely dominating in ALL of the South, on the Atlantic seaboard and at least in one critical Midwest state.  My feeling is still that former Secretary of State Clinton's path to the nomination is lighter than Trump's path to the GOP nomination.

Grand total: 51 DEM matchups, national and state polling combined. Running subtotal, D + R together: 104 matchups (at least).

All of the toplines, survey sizes, MoEs and some important internals and crosstabs for the DEM polling can be found HERE.

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D vs. R matchups: NATIONAL POLLING

Morning Consult (R), released 01.02.2016:
waiting on PDF, but this link claims that both DEMS easily lead the GOP field.
Absent newer statistics, there is not much for me to say about this one. However, two more MC polls came out afterward.

Quinnipiac, released 05.02.2016: 8 matchups, 3 of them Clinton vs. GOP, 3 of the Sanders vs. GOP, 2 of them Sanders vs. GOP vs. Bloomberg. 4 D wins, 2 R wins, 2 ties. The poll claims absolute parity in voter party affiliation: D32/D32. Ain't gonna happen...

Morning Consult, released 09.02.2016: 9 matchups, 5 of them Clinton vs. GOP, 4 of them 3 way matchups, either Clinton or Sanders vs. GOP vs. Bloomber. 8 D wins, 1 GOP win. The survey reflects a D+5 party affiliation electorate, much closer to the actual stats from 2008 and 2012.

IPSOS/Reuters, released 10.02.2016: 8 matchups, 2 Clinton vs. GOP, 2 Clinton vs. GOP vs. Bloomberg, same scenario for Sanders. 8 D wins. The survey reflects a D+9 party affiliation electorate, is too far off to the Left in this case.

Morning Consult (R), released 12.02.2016: 4 matchups, all 3-ways: 2 Clinton vs. GOP vs. Bloomberg, same scenario for Sanders. 4 D wins.

That makes for 29 national matchups that I can verify in the last 14 days: 24 D wins, 2 ties, 3 R wins.


D vs. R matchups: STATE POLLING


Florida:
Florida Southern College Center (FSCS), released 09.02.2016: 8 matchups, 4 Clinton vs. GOP, 4 Sanders vs. GOP. 6 D wins, 2 GOP wins. The party affiliation screen is WAY, WAY, WAY off to the right in the poll. See: HERE.

New York:
Siena, released 08.02.2016: 12 matchups, 6 Clinton vs. GOP, 6 Sanders vs. GOP. 12 D landslide wins, and yet, the +17 over Rubio is disturbing. The last time a Democrat won NY State by "only" +18 was John Kerry, in 2004, and he lost to Pres. Bush (43).  The good news is that NY margins in polling tend to be smaller than they actually end up being on election night. Sanders beats Trump by +33 here. Were this to hold, it would be the largest D margin in this state since LBJ, 1964.

The most ominous warning sign for the GOP:

Virginia:
Roanoke College, released 03.02.2016:  6 matchups, 3 Clinton vs. GOP, 3 Sanders vs. GOP. The Ds win all 6 easily. Clinton and Sanders lead Trump by +15 and +22, respectively.  This is a sure sign thast this state is being cemented into the so-called "Blue Wall", unless the GOP does something about it. The only margin that is under Obama's +3.87% win in the Old Dominion from 2012 is Clinton's +3 over Rubio. Once again, in terms of actual state-to-state polling, Rubio comes out as the most viable opponent to Clinton.


This makes for 26 state matchups, 14 of them from two critical battleground states and makes for 55 national and state D-vs-R matchups from the first two weeks in February. This makes for a grand total of 159 (at least) matchups for this polling wrap-up.

Now, it is still a long time until November, but Obama never had these kinds of numbers in Virginia like what we see against Trump, Bush and Cruz.


All of the toplines, survey sizes, MoEs and some important internals and crosstabs for the D-vs-R polling can be found HERE.