16 November 2015

2016 polling round-up, 16-30.11.2015: FAV/UNFAV, APPROVE/DISAPPROVE, major issues, etc...



Presidential Approval / Disapproval - NATIONAL


McClatchy / Marist, released 16.11.2015:
1,080 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Obama approve 48 / disapprove 48, +/-0


Morning Consult (R), released 17.11.2015:
2,001 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Obama approve 41 / disapprove 56, -15


PPP (D), released 19.11.2015:
1,360 LV, MoE = +/-2.7

Obama approve 43 / disapprove 52, -9


Bloomberg / Selzer, released 20.11.2015:
1,002 Adult, MoE = +/-3.9

Obama approve 44 / disapprove 51, -7

Rasmussen Reports, released 20.11.2015:
1,500 LV, MoE = +/-3.0

Obama approve 43 / disapprove 55, -12

ABC/ WAPO, released 23.11.2015:
1,003 Adults, MoE = +-3.5

Obama approve 46 / disapprove 50, -4
On the economy: Obama approve 48 / disapprove 48, +/-0

CBS News, released 23.11.2015:
1,205 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0

Obama approve 42 / disapprove 47, -5


The Economist / YouGov poll, released 25.11.2015:
2,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1

Obama approve 45 / disapprove 50, -5

Gravis (R) / OANN, released 25.11.2015:
1,051 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 528 DRV, MoE = +/-4.3

Obama approve 42 / disapprove 52, -10


IPSOS/Reuters, released 25.11.2015:
964 Adults, MoE = +/-3.6

Obama approve 42 / disapprove 53, -11

Presidential Approval / Disapproval - STATE

New Hampshire:

FOX News poll, released 19.11.2015:
804 RV, MoE = +/-3.5

Obama approve 43 / disapprove 50, -7

North Carolina:

High Point University, released 17.11.2015:
610 Adults, MoE = +/-4.0
of them, 508 RV, MoE = +/-4.3

Obama approve 43 / disapprove 49, -6 (among both adults and also among RV, identical numbers)

South Carolina:

PPP (D), released 17.11.2015:
1,290 RV, MoE = +/-2.7

Obama approve 40 / disapprove 54, -14


Virginia:

Princeton / UMW, released 16.11.2015:
656 LV, MoE = +/-4.3

Obama approve 47 / disapprove 48, -1
Obama FAV 50 / unfav 47, +3


Wisconsin:

Marquette University, released 20.11.2015:
803 RV, MoE = +/-4.2

Obama approve 47.4 / disapprove 47.3, +0.1 (+/-0)




Other POLS: Approval / Disapproval

National:

McClatchy / Marist, released 16.11.2015:
1,080 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Congessional Republicans approve 23 / disapprove 70, -47
Congessional Democrats approve 38 / disapprove 55, -17


PPP (D), released 19.11.2015:
1,360 LV, MoE = +/-2.7

Congress approve 12 / disapprove 76, -64
Speaker Ryan 41 FAV / 35 UNFAV +6


PRRI (Public Religion Relations Institute), released 23.11.2015:
1,010 Adults, MoE = +/-3.7


Trump FAV 26 / UNFAV 65, -39
Carson FAV 40 / UNFAV 31, +9

New Jersey:

Farleigh-Dickinson, released 17.11.2015:
830 RV, MoE = +/-3.9

Christie approve 34 / disapprove 56, -24

Virginia:

Princeton / UMW, released 16.11.2015:
656 LV, MoE = +/-4.3

US Congress approve 14 / disapprove 80, -66


Roanoke, released 19.11.2015:
601 "Residents", MoE = +/-4.0

Obama approve 43 / disapprove 43, +/-0



ISSUES:


North Carolina:

High Point University, released 17.11.2015:
610 Adults, MoE = +/-4.0
of them, 508 RV, MoE = +/-4.3

Right direction 24 / wrong direction 68, -44 (among adults)
Right direction 26 / wrong direction 67, -41 (among adults)



PRRI (Public Religion Relations Institute), released 23.11.2015:
1,010 Adults, MoE = +/-3.7

Immigration reform:



Speaks for itself.


ABC / WAPO / Langer Research, released 23.11.2015:
1,004 Adults, MoE = +/-3.5





Possibility of Terror-attacks on US soil:


CBS News, released 23.11.2015:
1,205 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0





Refugees from Syria:


Iowa:


Quinnipiac, released 25.11.2015:
543 DLV (Likely Democratic Caucus Participants), MoE = +/-4.2


Quinnipiac, released 24.11.2015:
600 RLV (Likely Republican Caucus Participants), MoE = +/-4.0


The two parties are pretty much mirror images of each other about this.

Massachusetts:

Suffolk University, released 24.11.2015:
500 LV, MoE = +/-4.4

Accept Syrian refugees 51.00 / not accept Syrian refugees 40.40, +10.6 



2016 polling round-up, 15-30.11.2015: Senatorial / Gubernatorial

2016 Arizona Senatorial GOP primary:

BRC / Rocky Mountain Poll, released 19.11.2015:
700 "Heads of Household", MoE = +/-3.8
of them, 577 RV, MoE = +/-4.2
of them, 226 RRV, MoE = not listed

McCain 41
Ward 11
Van Steenwyck 2
McClusky 1

Margin: McCain +30


2016 Arizona Senatorial GE:

BRC / Rocky Mountain Poll, released 19.11.2015:
700 "Heads of Household", MoE = +/-3.8
of them, 577 RV, MoE = +/-4.2
of them, 226 RRV, MoE = not listed

McCain 37 / Kirkpatrick 31, Margin = McCain +7

2015 Louisiana Gubernatorial Runoff (21.11.2015):

MRI (Market Research Insights), released 16.11.2015:
600 LV, MoE = +/-4.1

Edwards 53 / Vitter 38, Margin = Edwards +15

JMC Analytics, released 17.11.2015:
635 LV, MoE = +/-3.9

Edwards 51 / Vitter 35, Margin = Edwards +16
breakdown among undecideds, leaning toward*: Edwards 54 / Vitter 38, Margin = Edwards +16

*Some end-polls do this. If these numbers hold, then Vitter can expect little last-minute help from undecided voters.

The internals are interesting:


Red Racing Horses (R) / PMI (R), released 17.11.2015:
359 LV, MoE = +/-5.0

Edwards 48 / Vitter 42, Margin = Edwards +6

The internals are interesting:



MRI (Market Research Insights), released 19.11.2015:
900 LV, MoE = not listed

Edwards 52 / Vitter 40, Margin = Edwards +12

JMC Analytics, released 20.11.2015:
614 LV, MoE = +/-3.9

Edwards 47 / Vitter 43, Margin = Edwards +4

Univ. of New Orleans (UNO), released 20.11.2015:
614 LV, MoE = +/-4.0

Edwards 54 / Vitter 34, Margin = Edwards +20


2016 Maryland Senatorial Democratic Primary:

Baltimore Sun / U of Baltimore / Opinion Works, released 22.11.2015:
419 LV, MoE = +/-4.8

Van Hollen 45
Edwards 31
undecided 24

Margin: Van Hollen +14

If Cummings were to join the race, then:

Cummings 40
Van Hollen 28
Edwards 19
Undecided 13

Margin: Cummings +12

2016 Maryland Senatorial Republican Primary:

Baltimore Sun / U of Baltimore / Opinion Works, released 22.11.2015:
419 LV, MoE = +/-4.8

Undecided 59
Szeliga 15
Douglas 9
Glassman 8
Kefalas 5
Seda 4

Margin: Undecideds +44, Szeliga +6 (over Douglas)

2016 South Carolina Senatorial:

PPP (D), released 17.11.2015:
1,290 RV, MoE = +/-2.7

Scott (Inc) 53 / Dickerson 25, Margin = Scott +28

xxx

2016 polling round-up, 15-30.11.2015: Presidential D vs. R matchups

D vs. R matchups: NATIONAL POLLING


Morning Consult (R), released 17.11.2015:
2,001 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Clinton 42 / Carson 43, Margin = Carson +1
Clinton 44 / Trump 43, Margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 44 / Bush 37, Margin = Clinton +7
Clinton 44 / Rubio 36, Margin = Clinton +8
Clinton 45 / Fiorina 33, Margin = Clinton +11
Clinton 46 / Paul 34, Margin = Clinton +12

PPP (D), released 19.11.2015:
1,360 LV, MoE = +/-2.7

Clinton 43 / Rubio 45, Margin = Rubio +2
Clinton 45 / Trump 44, Margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 46 / Carson 45, Margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 43 / Bush 41, Margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 46 / Cruz 44, Margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 46 / Fiorina 41, Margin = Clinton +5


Sanders 40 / Fiorina 42, Margin = Fiorina +2
Sanders 39 / Bush 42, Margin = Bush +3
Sanders 41 / Trump 44, Margin = Trump +3
Sanders 39 / Cruz 44, Margin = Cruz +5
Sanders 38 / Rubio 44, Margin = Rubio +6
Sanders 39 / Carson 46, Margin = Carson +7



FOX NEWS poll, released 22.11.2015:
1,016 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 42 / Rubio 50, Margin = Rubio +8
Clinton 39 / Bush 45, Margin = Bush +6
Clinton 42 / Carson 47, Margin = Carson +5
Clinton 41 / Trump 46, Margin = Trump +5
Clinton 41 / Cruz 45, Margin = Cruz +4
Clinton 43 / Christie 46, Margin = Christie +3
Clinton 42 / Fiorina 42, Margin = TIE

Sanders 41 / Trump 46, Margin = Trump +5

Once again, this:



In 2008, it was D+8, in 2012, it was D+7 and it has not been R at 40% since 1972.

D vs. R matchups: STATE POLLING

Colorado:

Quinnipiac, released 18.11.2015:
1,262 RV, MoE = +/-2.8

Clinton 36 / Rubio 52, Margin = Rubio +16
Clinton 38 / Carson 52, Margin = Carson +14
Clinton 38 / Cruz 51, Margin = Cruz +13
Clinton 37 / Trump 48, Margin = Trump +11

Sanders 39 / Rubio 52, Margin = Rubio +13
Sanders 40 / Carson 52, Margin = Carson +12
Sanders 42 / Cruz 49, Margin = Cruz +7
Sanders 44 / Trump 46, Margin = Trump +2

I kept looking at these numbers and kept asking myself what could be so possibly off about them, so I checked the internals. This is what Quinnipiac claims is the partisan identification of the poll, from the methodology pdf:




So, Quinnipiac claims an R +7 advantage in this state and also claims that the white, non, hispanic population is 79%.  So, I checked the data.

Here are the very latest VR statistics from Colorado, from October 2015 (.pdf).
Add up the figures, and it comes to this:

Colorado VR 2015 – October


D: 1,074,723 (30.34%)
R: 1,101,253 (31.08%)
I/O/U: 1,366,680 (38.58%)
Total: 3,542,656 (Active, Inactive, New)

Margin: I/O/U +7.50%

Margin D/R: R +0.74% (statistical tie)

So, the partisan identification of the poll is 6 points to the right, compared to the ACTUAL, factual VR statistics for this state.

We go deeper. The EXIT POLL for Colorado 2012 showed:





In November 2012, at the General Election, the partisan breakdown in Colorado was actually D+5.

So, a Quinnnipiac poll showing R+7 now is therefore 12 points away from where the actual electorate in Colorado was in 2012.

Oh, and BTW, the actual VR statistics in CO right before the November election were:

Colorado VR 2012 – End of October

D: 1,150,527 (31.57%)
R: 1,157,083 (31.75%)
I/O/U: 1,336,734 (36.68%)
Total: 3,644,344 (Active, Inactive)

Margin: I/O/U +4.93%

Margin D/R: R +0.18% (statistical tie)

Right before the election in 2012, the R's had a similar very slight advantage over the Ds.

So, a 33 R / 26 D / 33 I model is WAY off.

Let's look at the Latino and White vote component.

Quinnipiac claims that the demographics of the poll are 79% White, 10% Latino.

Ok, let's fact check that as well. As of 2014:




So, the ACTUAL, factual demographics of Colorado are:

69 White / 20 Black. This means that this Quinnipiac, in relation to actual demographics, is 10% too rich on the White vote and 10% too poor on the Latino vote.

Let's also compare that to the actual VR statistics in CO right before the November election, which were:



According to the exit polls, 14% of Colorado's voters in 2012 were Latinos, tendency: rising. There is no reason in the world to think that the Latino vote is going to be less than 14% in 2016.

So, the basis for this Quinnipiac poll is so unbelievably off, for the first time ever, I am forced to call a Quinnipiac poll a "trash" poll. Why they were unwilling to weight the poll for actual, real, likely statistics is just beyond me.

Now, I have been writing for two years now that Hillary has been struggling in Colorado, but there is really no way for her to be losing to Ted Cruz (R-TX) by 13 points while yet strongly beating him in most national polling.

Florida:

Florida Atlantic University (FAU), released 18.11.2015:
829 RV, MoE = +/-3.3

Clinton 41 / Carson 50, Margin = Carson +9
Clinton 41 / Trump 49, Margin = Trump +8
Clinton 43 / Rubio 50, Margin = Rubio +7
Clinton 40 / Bush 44, Margin = Bush +4
Clinton 45 / Cruz 48, Margin = Cruz +3


Iowa:

Morning Consult (R) / Campaign for sustainable RX pricing, released 19.11.2015:
641 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 40 / Carson 46, Margin = Carson +6
Clinton 40 / Rubio 43, Margin = Rubio +3
Clinton 40 / Bush 41, Margin = Bush +1
Clinton 41 / Trump 40, Margin = Clinton +1

Within the poll is a party-identification internal that is highly unlikely:


The internal shows an R+7 party affiliation advantage. That is way, way off from reality.

Nevada:

Morning Consult (R) / Campaign for sustainable RX pricing, released 19.11.2015:
628 RV MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 41 Trump 44, Margin =  Trump +3
Clinton 42 / Rubio 42, Margin = TIE
Clinton 44 / Carson 41, Margin = Clinton +3
Clinton 44 / Bush 38, Margin = Clinton +6




New Hampshire:

FOX News poll, released 19.11.2015:
804 RV, MoE = +/-3.5

Clinton 40 / Rubio 47, Margin = Rubio +7
Clinton 40 / Kasich 43, Margin = Kasich +3
Clinton 42 / Bush 45, Margin = Bush +3
Clinton 43 / Carson 45, Margin = Carson +2
Clinton 41 / Fiorina 43, Margin = TIE
Clinton 44 / Christie 43, Margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 44 / Cruz 41, Margin = Clinton +3
Clinton 47 / Trump 40, Margin = Clinton +7

This internal is interesting and possible, but unlikely:


Political affliation: R+3. In NH, this is indeed possible, but there are many more I's than the 23% listed.


Morning Consult (R) / Campaign for sustainable RX pricing, released 19.11.2015:
530 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 42 / Bush 40, Margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 42 / Rubio 40, Margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 43 / Carson 41, Margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 45 / Trump 38, Margin = Clinton +7

The political affiliation internals in this poll are also way, way, way off from reality:


This poll shows an R+9 advantage in political affiliation, way off from reality. And yet, Clinton is still winning.

South Carolina:

PPP (D), released 17.11.2015:
1,290 RV, MoE = +/-2.7

Clinton 39 / Carson 51, Margin = Carson +12
Clinton 41 / Bush 47, Margin = Bush +6
Clinton 42 / Trump 47, Margin = Trump +5
Clinton 42 / Rubio 47, Margin = Rubio +5
Clinton 43 / Huckabee 47, Margin = Huckabee +4
Clinton 41 / Fiorina 45, Margin = Fiorina +4
Clinton 43 / Cruz 46, Margin = Cruz +3
Clinton 41 / Kasich 43, Margin = Kasich +2

Sanders 33 / Carson 51, Margin = Carson +18
Sanders 33 / Rubio 46, Margin = Rubio +13
Sanders 35 / Bush 48, Margin = Bush +13
Sanders 35 / Cruz 45, Margin = Cruz +10
Sanders 38 / Trump 48, Margin = Trump +10

The internals by race are interesting. According to the PPP (D) poll, Dr. Ben Carson gets a considerably higher chunk of the Black Vote in SC than any of his other GOP counterparts.






Morning Consult (R) / Campaign for sustainable RX pricing, released 19.11.2015:
627 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 37 / Carson 48, Margin = Carson +11
Clinton 38 / Rubio 46, Margin = Rubio +8
Clinton 39 / Bush 44, Margin = Bush +5
Clinton 41 / Trump 44, Margin = Trump +3


Virginia:

Princeton / UMW, released 16.11.2015:
656 LV, MoE = +/-4.3

Clinton 39 / Carson 44 / Webb 12, Margin = Carson +5
Clinton 42 / Trump 36 / Webb 16, Margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 42 / Trump 27 / Bush 24, Margin = Clinton +15

Sanders 33 / Carson 42 / Webb 17, Margin = Trump +5
Sanders 33 / Trump 38 / Webb 20, Margin = Carson +9

Roanoke, released 19.11.2015:
601 "Residents", MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 44 / Carson 44, Margin = TIE
Clinton 45 / Rubio 41, Margin = Clinton +4
Clinton 46 / Bush 39, Margin = Clinton +7
Clinton 46 / Fiorina 39, Margin = Clinton +7
Clinton 47 / Cruz 39, Margin = Clinton +8
Clinton 50 / Trump 36, Margin = Clinton +14

Wisconsin:

Marquette University, released 20.11.2015:
803 RV, MoE = +/-4.2

Clinton 43.7 / Rubio 45.2, Margin = Rubio +1.5
Clinton 44.2 / Carson 45.3, Margin = Carson +1.1
Clinton 47.5 / Trump 38.3, Margin = Clinton +9.8


Sanders 46.0 / Rubio 41.9, Margin = Sanders +4.1
Sanders 47.1 / Carson 41.1, Margin = Sanders +6.0
Sanders 51.9 / Trump 35.3, Margin = Sanders +16.6



2016 polling round-up, 16-30.11.2015: GOP Nomination

GOP NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING


Morning Consult (R), released 17.11.2015:
2,001 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Trump 38
Carson 19
Rubio 7
Cruz 7
Bush 6
-------------
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 3
Paul 2
Christie 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +19


IPSOS / Reuters, released 19.11.2015:
3,418 RV, MoE = +/-1.9
of them, 1,299 RRV, MoE = +/-3.1



Margin =  Trump +19 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +23 (RRV only), Trump +18 (IRV, R-leaning only)

and in a 3-man race:



Margin =  Trump +15 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +17 (RRV only), Trump +14 (IRV, R-leaning only)


PPP (D), released 19.11.2015:
1,360 LV, MoE = +/-2.7
of them, 607 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0


Trump 26
Carson 19
Cruz 14
Rubio 13
-----------------
Bush 5
Fiorina 4
Huckabee 4
Christie 3
Kasich 3
Paul 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +7

2 way hypotheticals:

Trump 56 / Bush 34, Trump +22
Carson 43 / Rubio 42, Carson +1 (statistical tie)
Carson 50 / Trump 41, Carson +9
Rubio 43 / Cruz 38, Rubio +5
Cruz 46 / Trump 44, Cruz +2 (statistical tie)
Trump 46 / Rubio 44, Trump +2 (statistical tie)

This internal was interesting. I found it to be very disturbing:




Bloomberg / Selzer, released 19.11.2015:
1,002 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
among them, 379 RRV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 24
Carson 20
Rubio 12
Cruz 9
-----------------
Bush 6
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 3
Kasich 3
Paul 3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +4

NBC News / Survey Monkey, released 20.11.2015:
5,755 Adults, MoE = +/-1.9
of them, 2,440 RRV, MoE = +/-2.9

Trump 18
Carson 18
Cruz 18
Rubio 11
-----------------
Bush 4
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
Paul 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +10

ABC / WAPO, released 21.11.2015:
1,004 Adults, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, (to be reported)

Trump 32
Carson 22
Rubio 11
Cruz 8
-----------------
Bush 6
Christie 3
Fiorina 4
Huckabee 3
Kasich 3
Paul 3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +10

FOX NEWS poll, released 22.11.2015:
1,016 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 434 RRV, MoE = +/-6.5

Trump 28
Carson 18
Rubio 14
Cruz 14
-----------------
Bush 5
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 3
Kasich 2
Paul 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +10


PRRI (Public Religion Relations Institute), released 23.11.2015:
1,010 Adults, MoE = +/-3.7
of them, 211 RRV, of them 147 RLV



Margin: TIE (Rs), Carson +2 (RRV), Carson +7 (RLV)

The demographics of the poll:


F 55.2 / M 44.8, F+ 10.4
D 30.1 / R 23.2 / I 37.1 / no aff 9.6 , D +6.9,
White 68.6 / Black 10.8 / Latino 10.5

The Economist / YouGov poll, released 25.11.2015:
2,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 600 RLV

Trump 36
Rubio 14
Cruz 12
Carson 10
-----------------
Bush 6
Fiorina 4
Paul 4
Kasich 4
Christie 3
Huckabee 2
all others 1 or less



Margin: Trump +22 

One-one-one matches:

Rubio 51 / Carson 49, Rubio +2
Cruz 53 / Carson 47, Cruz +6
Cruz 55 / Rubio 45, Cruz +10
Trump 57 / Cruz 43, Trump +14
Trump 57 / Rubio 43. Trump +14
Trump 60 / Carson 40, Trump +20

Gravis (R) / OANN, released 25.11.2015:
1,051 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 523 RRV, MoE = +/-4.3



Margin: Trump +22 


IPSOS/Reuters, released 25.11.2015:
964 Adults, MoE = +/-3.6
of them, 352 RRV, MoE = +/-6.0



Margin =  Trump +24 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +26 (RRV only), Trump +18 (IRV, R-leaning only)

and in a 3-man race:




Margin =  Trump +20 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +21 (RRV only), Trump +22 (IRV, R-leaning only)

IPSOS/Reuters, released 27.11.2015:
346 RRV, MoE = +/-5.2



Margin: Trump +16.1 

It's a little confusing why IPSOS/Reuters, just 2 days after released it's 10-day Core-Approval poll, also published this poll.


GOP NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Colorado:

Quinnipiac, released 18.11.2015:
1,262 RV, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, 411 RRV, MoE = +/-4.83

Carson 25
Rubio 19
Trump 17
Cruz 14
-----------------
Fiorina 5
Paul 3
Bush 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Carson +6 (over Rubio)


Florida:

Florida Atlantic University (FAU), released 18.11.2015:
829 RV, MoE = +/-3.3

Trump 36
Rubio 18
Carson 15
Cruz 10
Bush 9
-----------------
Paul 4
Kasich 3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +18

Iowa:

Morning Consult / Campaign for sustainable RX pricing, released 19.11.2015:
641 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 29
Carson 17
Rubio 12
Bush 9
Cruz 9
-----------------
Fiorina 4
Christie 3
Paul 3
Huckabee 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +12

CBS Battleground Poll / YouGov, released 22.11.2015:
1,555 RV, MoE = +/-4.6

Trump 30
Cruz 21
Carson 19
Rubio 11
-----------------
Bush 5
Fiorina 4
Christie 2
(Jindal 2)
Paul 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +9 (over Cruz)

Quinnipiac, released 24.11.2015:
600 RLV (Likely Republican Caucus Participants), MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 25
Cruz 23
Carson 18
Rubio 13
-----------------
Paul 5
Bush 4
Fiorina 3
Christie 2
Huckabee 2
Santorum 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +2 (over Cruz, statistical tie)

Here the numbers, by demographic breakdown:




Although it is close right now, if you look deep into the internals, you see that Trump is so far ahead in some categories, he is very likely to stay close to the top of the pile, no matter what:




Assuming that those will be two of the dominant issues for 2016, with such commanding numbers in these two rubriks over a large field of GOP candidates, Trump is looking to be well positioned to win the Caucuses.

Also, Iowans absolutely cannot stand Jeb Bush:


Bush is at -14 FAV/UNFAV among Republicans, while Carson is at +64. That's a 78 point swing.

Iowa Republicans also don't think that Bush can beat Hillary:



Bush's electability, according to Quinnipiac, is -34, while Trump's is +43 and Cruz's is +30. Remember, these are the views of Republicans. No independents or Democrats are supposedly in this mix.  Bush is getting these numbers from Iowa Republicans in spite of holding pretty well nationally.

And for the first time, the Quinnipiac demographics do not include age groups, for some mysterious reason:



Even so, the Demographics are telling. I am supposing that there is pretty good correlation between Evangelical (born-again) Christians and "Very Conservative" and am also thinking that most Tea Party adherents are also within the other two categories as well.  The GOP in Iowa is men.-heavy 61/39 and also less educated: about 2/3 have no college education.


Iowa State Poll, released 26.11.2015 (conducted 01-15.11.2015):
1,074 RV, MoE = +/- (ca.) 3.0

Carson 27.2
Rubio 16.7
Undecided 16.2 
Trump 14.7
no other candidates mentioned in the article

Margin: Carson +10.5 (over Rubio)


Massachusetts:

Suffolk University, released 24.11.2015:
500 LV, MoE = +/-4.4
of them, 134 RLV, MoE = not listed

Trump 32.09
Rubio 17.91
Cruz 10.45
--------------------
Bush 7.46
Carson 5.22
Christie 4.48
Fiorina 4.48
Kasich 2.24
Paul 1.49
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +14.18 (+14.2) - over Rubio.

Nevada:

Morning Consult (R) / Campaign for sustainable RX pricing, released 19.11.2015:
628 RV MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 38
Carson 18
Rubio 12
--------------------
Cruz 7
Bush 6
Huckabee 2
Fiorina 2
Paul 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +20

New Hampshire:

FOX News poll, released 19.11.2015:
804 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 353 RRV, MoE = +/-7.5

Trump 27
Rubio 13
Cruz 11
Bush 9
Carson 9
Kasich 7
Christie 6
-----------------
Fiorina 3
Paul 3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +14


Suffolk Univ. / Boston Globe, released 21.11.2015:
Full poll HERE.
500 RLV + ILV, R-leaning, MoE = +/-4.4

2 scenarios:

Trump 22
Rubio 11
Carson 10
Cruz 9
Bush 8
-----------------
Christie 4
Fiorina 4
Paul 3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +11

With Mitt Romney in the mix:

Romney 31
Trump 15
-------------------
Carson 7
Cruz 7
Kasich 6
Rubio 6
Bush 3
Fiorina 3
Christie 2
Paul 2

Margin: Romney +16

Morning Consult (R) / Campaign for sustainable RX pricing, released 19.11.2015:
530 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 33
Carson 15
Cruz 9
Rubio 9
------------------
Bush 5
Kasich 5
Christie 5
Paul 3
Fiorina 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +18


CBS Battleground Poll / YouGov, released 22.11.2015:
1,336 RV, MoE = +/-5.2

Trump 32
Rubio 13
Carson 10
Cruz 10
------------------
Kasich 8
Bush 6
Fiorina 6
Christie 5
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +19



New Jersey:

Farleigh-Dickinson, released 17.11.2015:
830 RV, MoE = +/-3.9
of them, 307 RRV, MoE = +/-5.6

Trump 31
Rubio 18
Carson 11
Christie 9
----------------------
Cruz 6
Bush 5
Fiorina 5
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
Paul 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +13


Oklahoma: (yes, Oklahoma!)

Sooner Poll / News on 6 / News 9, released 20.11.2015:
794 LV, MoE = +/-3.48
of them, 389 RLV, MoE = +/-5.1

Trump 27.1
Cruz 18.3
Carson 17.5
Rubio 16.3
--------------------
Huckabee 4.3
Fiorina 2.3
Bush 2.2
Paul 2.2
All others 0.5 or less

Margin: Trump +8.8 (over Cruz)

The poll also does percentage breakdowns by congressional district. And 3 questions are blacked-out, could be presidential matchups set for a later release-date.


South Carolina:

Morning Consult (R) / Campaign for sustainable RX pricing, released 19.11.2015:
627 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 27
Carson 25
Cruz 10
Bush 10
Rubio 10
------------------
Graham 5
Huckabee 2
Paul 2
Fiorina 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +2 (statistical tie)

CBS Battleground Poll / YouGov, released 22.11.2015:
1,509 RV, MoE = +/-4.6

Trump 35
Carson 19
Rubio 16
Cruz 13
------------------
Bush 5
Huckabee 3
Graham 2
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +16


Virginia:

Princeton / UMW, released 16.11.2015:
656 LV, MoE = +/-4.3
Of them, 333 RLV, MoE not listed

Carson 29
Trump 24
Rubio 11
Cruz 10
Bush 5
Fiorina 5
Christie 4
Huckabee 4
Paul 4
all others 1 or less

Margin: Carson +5

Wisconsin:

Marquette University, released 20.11.2015:
803 RV, MoE = +/-4.2


Carson 22.0
Trump 19.3
Rubio 18.6
Cruz 9.1
Bush 5.8
Fiorina 4.9
Christie 4.2

all others 1 or less

Margin: Carson +2.7 (statistical tie)