16 September 2015

2016 polling round-up, 15-30.09.2015: fav/unfav, approve/disapprove, other issues



Presidential Approval / Disapproval - NATIONAL

Morning Consult, released 16.09.2015:
2,023 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Obama approve 43 / disapprove 53, -10


The Economist/YouGov, released 17.09.2015:
Overall, 2,000 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8

Obama approve 47 / disapprove 47, +/-0

Ipsos/Reuters, released 17.09.2015:
Overall, 1,570 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8

Obama approve 44 / disapprove 49, -5


NBC / Survey Monkey, released 21.09.2015:
5,113, MoE = +/-2.0

Obama approve 48 / disapprove 52, -4

ARG, released 21.09.2015:
1,100 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0

Obama approve 46 / disapprove 51, -5

Gallup, released 21.09.2015:
1,500 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0

Obama approve 45 / disapprove 52, -7


Morning Consult, released 21.09.2015:
4,033 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Obama approve 42 / disapprove 55, -13


FOX NEWS, released 23.09.2015:
1,013 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Obama FAV 47 / UNFAV 51, -4

Bloomberg/Selzer, released 23.09.2015:
1,001 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1

Obama approve 46 / disapprove 46, -13

Rasmussen Reports, released 26.09.2015:
1,500 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

Obama approve 49 / disapprove 51, -2


IPSOS/Reuters, released 26.09.2015:
1,582 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8

Obama approve 45 / disapprove 50, -5

NBC/WSJ, released 28.09.2015:
1,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1

Obama approve 47 / disapprove 47, +/-0

Suffolk, released 30.09.2015:
1,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0

Obama approve 40 / disapprove 50, -10


Morning Consult, released 30.09.2015:
1,543 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Obama approve 40 / disapprove 56, -16


Presidential Approval / Disapproval - STATE

Kentucky:

SUSA, released 29.09.2015:
866 RV, MoE = +/-3.3

Obama approve 31 / disapprove 61, -30


North Carolina:

Elon University, released 26.09.2015;
1,075 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Obama approve 41.6 / disapprove 50.6, -9


PPP (D), released 29.09.2015:
1,269 RV, MoE = +/-2.8

Obama approve 42 / disapprove 52, -10


Wisconsin:

Marquette Poll, released 29.09.2015:
803 RV, MoE = +/-4.1

Obama approve 51 / disapprove 45, +6


FAV / UNFAV - 2016 Presidential Candidates - National


Morning Consult, released 16.09.2015:
2,023 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Carson Fav 40 / Unfav 23, +17
Sanders Fav 39 / Unfav 30, +9
--------------------------------------
Clinton, Fav 47 / Unfav 48, -1
Fiorina Fav 26 / Unfav 29, -3
Webb Fav 16 / Unfav 20, -4
Rubio Fav 30 / Unfav 34, -4
Kasich Fav 20 / Unfav 25, -5
O'Malley  Fav 16 / Unfav 23, -7
Bush, Jeb Fav 37 / Unfav 45, -8
Chafee Fav 12 / Unfav 21, -9
Walker Fav 22 / Unfav 34, -12
Cruz Fav 26 / Unfav 40, -14
Trump Fav 39 / Unfav 53, -14
Paul Fav 27 / Unfav 42, -15
Jindal Fav 18 / Unfav 34, -16
Huckabee Fav 28 / Unfav 45, -17
Pataki Fav 13 / Unfav 31, -18
Santorum Fav 21 / Unfav 41, -20
Christie Fav 26 / Unfav 49, -23
Graham Fav 13 / Unfav 37, -25



The Economist/YouGov, released 17.09.2015:
Overall, 2,000 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8


Carson Fav 41 / Unfav 29, +12
Biden Fav 48 / Unfav 37, +11
Sanders Fav 39 / Unfav 33, +6
-------------------------------------------
Fiorina Fav 32 / Unfav 32, +/-0
-------------------------------------------
Rubio Fav 33 / Unfav 40, -6
Kasich Fav 23 / Unfav 30, -7
Webb Fav 15 / Unfav 25, -10
Clinton, Fav 41 / Unfav 52, -12
Walker Fav 27 / Unfav 39, -12
O'Malley  Fav 16 / Unfav 28, -12
Trump Fav 39 / Unfav 53, -14
Huckabee Fav 31 / Unfav 45, -14
Chafee Fav 11 / Unfav 26, -15
Bush, Jeb Fav 35 / Unfav 51, -16
Paul Fav 28 / Unfav 44, -16
Gilmore Fav 11 / Unfav 27, -16
Jindal Fav 22 / Unfav 39, -17
Pataki Fav 16 / Unfav 36, -20
Cruz Fav 28 / Unfav 50, -22
Perry Fav 23 / Unfav 47, -24
Santorum Fav 22 / Unfav 48, -26
Graham Fav 16 / Unfav 45, -29


CNN/ORC, released 20.09.2015:
1,006 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0

Carson Fav 40 / Unfav 20, +20
Fiorina Fav 34 / Unfav 23, +11
Rubio Fav 32 / Unfav 29, +3
-------------------------------
Kasich Fav 21 / Unfav 22, -1
Christie Fav 32 / Unfav 39, -7
Cruz Fav 27 / Unfav 35, -8
Huckabee Fav 30 / Unfav 38, -8
Bush, Jeb Fav 34 / Unfav 46, -12
Walker Fav 19 / Unfav 31, -12
Paul Fav 25 / Unfav 38, -13
Trump Fav 31 / Unfav 59, -28




Morning Consult, released 21.09.2015:
4,033 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Carson Fav 42 / Unfav 25, +17
Sanders Fav 40 / Unfav 29, +11
Fiorina Fav 35 / Unfav 30, +5

---------------------------------------

Rubio Fav 32 / Unfav 33, -1
Clinton, Fav 45 / Unfav 51, -6
Kasich Fav 20 / Unfav 28, -8
Webb Fav 14 / Unfav 22, -8
O'Malley Fav 14 / Unfav 23, -9
Bush, Jeb Fav 37 / Unfav 47, -10
Trump Fav 41 / Unfav 52, -11
Chafee Fav 11 / Unfav 22, -11
Huckabee Fav 29 / Unfav 42, -13
Cruz Fav 27 / Unfav 40, -13
Walker Fav 21 / Unfav 35, -14
Jindal Fav 19 / Unfav 33, -14
Christie Fav 30 / Unfav 45, -15
Paul Fav 27 / Unfav 42, -15
Graham Fav 17 / Unfav 36, -19
Pataki Fav 14 / Unfav 34, -20
Santorum Fav 21 / Unfav 42, -21

Bloomberg/Selzer, released 23.09.2015:
1,001 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1

Biden Fav 49 / Unfav 41, +8
Clinton  Fav 38 / Unfav 54, -16

Also:




FOX NEWS, released 23.09.2015:
1,013 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Carson FAV 46 / UNFAV 27, +19
Biden FAV 49 / UNFAV 40, +9
Fiorina FAV 38 / UNFAV 31, +7
-------------------------------------------
Rubio FAV 35 / UNFAV 35, -/-0
------------------------------------------
Sanders FAV 34 / UNFAV 36, -2
Walker FAV 27 / UNFAV 31, -4
Cruz FAV 29 / UNFAV 42, -13
Kasich FAV 11 / UNFAV 25, +-14
Christie FAV 33 / UNFAV 48, -15
Clinton FAV 38 / UNFAV 56, -18
Bush FAV 34 / UNFAV 55, -21
Trump FAV 34 / UNFAV 59, -25


Quinnipiac, released 24.09.2015:

1,475 RV, MoE = +/-2.5

Carson FAV 48 / UNFAV 16, +32
Fiorina FAV 39 / UNFAV 21, +18
Biden FAV 50 / UNFAV 34, +16
Kasich FAV 27 / UNFAV 15, +12
Rubio FAV 38 / UNFAV 28, -10
Sanders FAV 35 / UNFAV 28, +7
------------------------------------------------
Webb FAV 8 / UNFAV 11, -3
Christie FAV 36 / UNFAV 42, -6
Huckabee FAV 35 / UNFAV 41, -6
Lessig FAV 2 / UNFAV 8, -6
Jindal FAV 21 / UNFAV 27, -6
Bush FAV 37 / UNFAV 44, -7
Gilmore FAV 5 / UNFAV 12, -7
O'Malley FAV 10 / UNFAV 19, -9
Cruz FAV 29 / UNFAV 39, -10
Chafee FAV 2UNFAV 13, -12
Paul FAV 30 / UNFAV 43, -13
Santorum FAV 25 / UNFAV 38, -13
Clinton FAV 41 / UNFAV 55, -14
Pataki FAV 11 / UNFAV 30, -19
Trump FAV 36 / UNFAV 57, -21
Graham FAV 16 / UNFAV 40, -24

NBC/WSJ, released 28.09.2015:
1,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1

(Positive/Negative view is how NBC words it, the same as FAV/UNFAV)

Biden FAV 40 / UNFAV 28, +12
Sanders FAV 32 / UNFAV 21, +11
Democratic Party FAV 41 / UNFAV 35, +6
Carson FAV 29 / UNFAV 21, +8
Fiorina FAV 27 / UNFAV 20, +7
---------------------------------------------------
Clinton FAV 39 / UNFAV 47, -8
Bush FAV 24 / UNFAV 39, -15
Republican Party FAV 29 / UNFAV 45, -16
Trump FAV 25 / UNFAV 58, -33


Suffolk, released 30.09.2015:
1,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0

Carson FAV 40 / UNFAV 32, +8
Fiorina FAV 38 / UNFAV 33, +5
Rubio FAV 37 / UNFAV 34, +3

Bush FAV 32 / UNFAV 50, -18
Huckabee FAV 29 / UNFAV 48, -19


ABC News / WAPO, released 30.09.2015:

Carson FAV 45 / UNFAV 27, +18
Fiorina FAV 35 / UNFAV 30, +5
Trump FAV 35 / UNFAV 60, -25

Among latinos:

Carson FAV 27 / UNFAV 26, +1
Fiorina FAV 23 / UNFAV 28, -5
Trump FAV 17 / UNFAV 82, -65

FAV / UNFAV - 2016 Presidential Candidates - State




Florida:

Florida Atlantic University (FAU), released 22.09.2015:
801 RV, MoE = not listed

Carson Fav 52.6 / Unfav 30.1, +22.5
Rubio Fav 50.9 / Unfav 39.9, +12
--------------------------------------------------
Bush, Jeb Fav 42.5 / Unfav 46.8, -4.3
Clinton, Fav 40.7 / Unfav 53.7, -13
 Walker Fav 27.3 / Unfav 46,4, -19.1
Sanders Fav 31.9 / Unfav 52.1, -20.2
Trump Fav 36.1 / Unfav 58.8, -22.7
Paul Fav 22.6 / Unfav 63.5, -40.9



North Carolina:


PPP (D), released 29.09.2015:
1,269 RV, MoE = +/-2.8
parenthese = values from the previous PPP (D) poll of NC.

Carson Fav 45 / Unfav 32, +13 (+15)
Fiorina Fav 38 / Unfav 33, +5 (+4)
Rubio Fav 39 / Unfav 34, +5 ( -1)
-------------------------------------------------
Biden, Fav 42 / Unfav 44, -2 (---)
Huckabee Fav 35 / Unfav 42, (-7) -4
Cruz Fav 30 / Unfav 43, -13 (-13)
Sanders Fav 28/ Unfav 42,  -14 -12
Kasich Fav 18 / Unfav 33, -15  (-8)
Clinton, Fav 35 / Unfav 57, -22 (-23)
Trump Fav 33 / Unfav 56, -23 (-15)
Bush, Jeb Fav 26 / Unfav 53, -27 (-20)


SPECIFIC ISSUES



POPE FRANCIS:


Fox News, released 23.09.2015:
1,013 RV, MoE = +/-3.0




Need for a third party:

Gallup, released, 26.09.2015:
1,025 Adults, MoE = +/-4.0







-and-



Congressional Approval

North Carolina:

Elon University, released 26.09.2015;
1,075 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Approve 8.8 / Disapprove 83.4, -74.6

Americans' views of Pope Francis during the week of his visit to the USA:

Quinnipiac, released 25.05.2015:
1,832 Adults, MoE = +/-2.3



North Carolina Republicans' views on certain issues:


PPP (D), released 29.09.2015:
1,269 RV, MoE = +/-2.8



-and-



Health Care:

Kaiser/PSRA, released 27.09.2015:
1,202 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0

Obama Health Care Law (ACA)

favor 41
not favor 45
margin: not favor +4



Hispanic/Latino/Immigration Issues:

Pew Hispanic Report, released 28.09.2015:






and



and



xxx

2016 polling round-up, 15-30.09.2015: Senatorial / Gubernatorial

Florida Senatorial:


PPP (D), released 16.09.2015:
814 RV, MoE = +/-3.4

Rubio 48 / Grayson 38, margin = Rubio +10
Rubio 46 / Murphy 40, margin = Rubio +6

DeSantis 37 / Grayson 37, margin = DeSantis +1
DeSantis 35 / Murphy 40, margin = Murphy +5

Jolly 39 / Grayson 36, margin = Jolly +3
Jolly 35 / Murphy 40, margin = Murphy +5

Lopez-Cantera 34 / Grayson 41, margin = Grayson +7
Lopez-Cantera 35 / Murphy 41, margin = Murphy +6


Kentucky Gubernatorial:

SUSA, released 30.09.2015:
701 LV, MoE = +/-3.7

Conway 42 / Bevin 37 / Curtis 7, margin = Conway +5

Illinois Senatorial:

Clarity Campaign Labs (D), released 17.09.2015:
948 RV, MoE = +/-3.2

Duckworth (D) 45 / Kirk (R-Inc) 41, margin = Duckworth +4

Louisiana Gubernatorial:


MarblePort / Hayride, released 18.09.2015:
1,324 LV, MoE = +/-3.0

Vitter 29 Edwards 26/ Angelle 15 / Dardenne 14,  margin = Vitter +3

PPP (D) for Gumbo PAC, released 23.09.2015:
616 LV, MoE = +/-4.0

Edwards 28 / Vitter 27 / Angelle 15 / Dardenne 14,  margin = Edwards +1

Runoff scenarios:

Edwards 40 /  Angelle 40,  margin =  TIE

Edwards 50 / Vitter 38,  margin = Edwards +12

Edwards 40 / Dardenne 42,  margin = Dardenne +2


Clarus/WWL-TV/The Advocate, released 27.09.2015:
800 LV, MoE = +/-3.5

Edwards 24 / Vitter 24 / Angelle 15 / Dardenne 14,  margin = TIE

Runoff scenarios:

Edwards 45 / Vitter 41,  margin = Edwards +4

Dardenne 42 / Vitter 35,  margin = Dardenne +7



North Carolina Gubernatorial:

Elon University, released 26.09.2015;
1,075 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Cooper 42.4 / McCrory 43.4, margin = McCrory +1.0


PPP (D), released 30.09.2015:
1,268 RV, MoE = +/-2.8

Cooper 41 / McCrory 44margin = McCrory +3
Spaulding 34 / McCrory 46margin = McCrory +12

Pennsylvania Senatorial:

Harper Polling (R), released 21.09.2015:
700 LV, +/-3.7

Toomey - Inc 47 / Sestak 37, margin = Toomey +10
Toomey - Inc 48 / McGinty 34, margin = Toomey +14


Wisconsin Senatorial:

Clarity Campaign Labs (D), released 17.09.2015:
775 RV, MoE = +/-3.6

Feingold (D) 47 / Johnson (R-Inc) 39, margin = Feingold +8


Marquette Poll, released 29.09.2015:
803 RV, MoE = +/-4.1

Feingold (D) 50 / Johnson (R-Inc) 36, margin = Feingold +14

2016 polling round-up, 15-30.09.2015: Presidential D vs. R matchups

D vs. R matchups: NATIONAL POLLING


Morning Consult, released 16.09.2015:
2,023 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Value in parentheses = the previous Morning Consult poll.

Clinton 43 (43) / Bush 41 (41), margin = Clinton +2 (+2)
Clinton 44 (42) / Trump 40 (43), margin = Clinton +4 (Trump +1)
Clinton 44 (43) / Rubio 38 (37), margin = Clinton +6 (+5)
Clinton 46 (44) / Paul 37 (38), margin = Clinton +9 (+6)
Clinton 45 (45) / Walker 36 (37), margin = Clinton +9 (+8)



Morning Consult, released 21.09.2015:
4,033 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
Parentheses = the previous Morning Consult poll (listed above these results in this blog)

Clinton 45 (44) / Trump 41 (40), margin = Clinton +4 (+4)
Clinton 45 (43) / Bush 39 (41), margin = Clinton +6 (+2)
Clinton 46 (44) / Rubio 38 (38), margin = Clinton +8 (+6)
Clinton 46 (46) / Paul 37 (37), margin = Clinton +9 (+9)
Clinton 47 (45) / Walker 34 (36), margin = Clinton +13 (+9)


Fox News, released 23.09.2015:
1,013 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Political identification within the poll = D+1 (it was D+7 in the 2012 election, D+8 in the 2008 election)

This is the first part of the poll, with a Clinton/Trump matchup published. The other matchups come in a later release of the poll.


Parentheses = the previous FOX poll (indicated within the above link)

Before the question matchups began, FOX first asked this question:



And then, with Question 31, the matchups began:

Clinton 46 (47) / Trump 42 (42), margin = Clinton +4 (+5)

Between the Clinton/Trump matchup and the other matchups, FOX news inserted the following question:



This question was asked BEFORE the Clinton / Bush matchup up question and the other matchup questions. By putting such a qualifier question in-between instead of simply asking for respondents' decisions on matchups, FOX has turned this poll somewhat into what is called a "push-poll"

(More data on this poll as it comes in)
Note: 03.10.2015 - as of this date, no new data.


Quinnipiac, released 24.09.2015:
1,475 RV, MoE = +/-2.5
Parentheses, where applicable, refer to the previous Qpiac poll.


Clinton 42  / Carson 49, margin = Carson +7 
Clinton 42 (42)  / Bush 44 (40) , margin = Bush +2 (Clinton +2)
Clinton 43  / Fiorina 44, margin = Fiorina +1 
Clinton 45 (45)  / Trump 43 (41), margin = Clinton +2 (+5)

Biden 45  / Carson 45, margin = TIE 
Biden 46  / Fiorina 43, margin = Biden +3
Biden 46 (45)  / Bush 41 (39), margin = Biden +5 (+6)
Biden 51 (48)  / Trump 40 (40), margin = Biden +11 (+8)

Sanders 39  / Carson 49, margin = Carson +10
Sanders 43  / Fiorina 44, margin = Fiorina +1 
Sanders 44 (43)  / Bush 44 (39), margin = TIE (Sanders +4)
Sanders 47 (44) / Trump 42 (41), margin = Sanders +5 (+3) 




NBC/WSJ, released 28.09.2015:
1,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
Values in parentheses = the results of the last NBC/WSJ matchup, from 06/15, where possible

Clinton 45  / Carson 46, margin = Carson +9
Clinton 44  / Fiorina 45, margin = Fiorina +1 
Clinton 45 (48)  / Bush 44 (40), margin = Clinton +1 (+8)
Clinton 48  / Trump 38 , margin = Clinton +10


Biden 48 (40)  / Bush 40 (48), margin = Biden +8 (Bush +8)
Biden 47  / Carson 41 , margin = Biden +6
Biden 49  / Carson 41 , margin = Biden +8
Biden 56  / Trump 35 , margin = Biden +21


Sanders 52  / Trump 36 , margin = Sanders +16


D vs. R matchups: STATE POLLING


Florida:

Florida Atlantic University (FAU), released 22.09.2015:*
801 RV, MoE = not listed

Clinton 39.5 / Carson 51.7, margin = Carson +12.2
Clinton 42.2 / Rubio 50.4, margin = Rubio +8.2
Clinton 40.9 / Bush 49.1, margin = Bush +8.2
Clinton 44.5 / Trump 45.9, margin = Trump +1.5
Clinton 45.4 / Walker 45.5, margin = Walker +0.1 (near mathematical tie)
Clinton 47.5 / Huckabee 43.6, margin = Clinton +3.9
Clinton 44.1 / Paul 40.3, margin = Clinton +3.8 

*A number of things about the methodology to this poll should be explored. Doesn't seem to jive at all with the demographic make up of the state at all.

Michigan:

Marketing Research Group - MRG - (R), released 18.09.2015:
600 LV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 39 / Bush 40, margin = Bush +1
Clinton 39 / Fiorina 40, margin = Fiorina +1
Clinton 43  / Trump 40, margin = Clinton +3 

Mitchell Research / Fox 2, released 29.09.2015:
1,483 LV, MoE = +/-2.5
values in parentheses are from the previous Mitchell poll, end of August

Clinton 42  / Bush 37, margin = Clinton +5 (Bush +1)
Clinton 42 / Trump 42, margin = TIE (Trump +1)
Clinton 40 / Rubio 43, margin = Rubio +3 (+9)





New Hampshire:

CNN / WMUR9, released 28.09.2015:
743 LV, MoE = +/-3.6

Clinton 50  / Trump 42, margin = Clinton +8

Biden 56  / Trump 37 , margin = Biden +19 

Sanders 57  / Trump 37 , margin = Sanders +20

A very enlightening internal from the CNN poll, explains partly why Clinton is still winning over Trump, and by a near-landslide margin:





North Carolina:

Elon University, released 26.09.2015;
1,075 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 40.9 / Carson 52.3, margin = Carson +11.4
Clinton 42.6 / Bush 46.0, margin = Bush +3.4
Clinton 47.3 / Trump 4.0, margin = Clinton +7.3

Internals from all three matchups:













PPP (D), released 29.09.2015:
1,269 RV, MoE = +/-2.8
values in parentheses are from the previous PPP (D) poll of NC.

Clinton 43 (43) / Cruz 46 (45), margin = Cruz +3 (+2)
Clinton 41 (42) / Bush 46 (42), margin = Bush +4 (TIE)
Clinton 40 (41) / Kasich 44 (42), margin = Kasich +4 (+1)
Clinton 42 (42) / Trump 47 (45), margin = Trump +5 (+3)
Clinton 41 (45) / Huckabee 48 (49), margin = Huckabee +7 (+4)
Clinton 41 (41) / Fiorina 48 (42), margin = Fiorina +7 (+1)
Clinton 41 (40) / Carson 51 (47), margin = Carson +10 (+7)
Clinton 40 (41) / Rubio 50 (45), margin = Rubio +10 (+4)

Biden 47 / Bush 42, margin = Biden +5
Biden 45 / Trump 45, margin = TIE
Biden 44  / Fiorina 45 , margin = Fiorina +1
Biden 44  / Carson 47 , margin = Carson +3

Sanders 43 (40) / Trump 46 (43), margin = Trump +3 (+3)
Sanders 39 (40) / Bush 45 (43), margin = Bush +6 (+3)
Sander 37  / Fiorina 46 , margin = Fiorina +9
Sanders 35Carson 48, margin = Carson +13

Texas:

Texas Lyceum Poll, released 30.09.2015:
1,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 801 RV, MoE = +/-3.35

Clinton 27 / Bush 32 , margin = Bush +5
Clinton 31 / Cruz 32 , margin = Cruz +1
Clinton 31 / Walker 29, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 38 / Trump 33, margin = Clinton +5
Clinton 37 / Perry 31, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 32 / Rubio 22, margin = Clinton +10



Wisconsin:

Marquette Poll, released 29.09.2015:
803 RV, MoE = +/-4.1
values in parentheses = the previous Marquette poll, end of August.

Clinton 48  / Rubio 40 , margin = Clinton  +8
Clinton 50 (46.6) / Bush 38 (41.5), margin = Clinton  +12 (+5.5)
Clinton 50 (51.1) / Trump 36 (35.4), margin = Clinton  +14 (+15.7)

2016 polling round-up, 15-30.09.2015: GOP Nomination

GOP NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING


Morning Consult, released 16.09.2015:
2,023 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 756 RRV, MoE = unknown, likely +/-5.0

Trump 33
Carson 17
Bush 9
Cruz 6
Paul 5
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 3
Rubio 3
Walker 2
Christie 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +16



The Economist/YouGov, released 17.09.2015:
Overall, 2,000 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8

Trump 33
Carson 17
Cruz 8
Bush 7
Rubio 7
Fiorina 6
Walker 5
Paul 4
Kasich 3
all others 2 or less

Margin: Trump +16


Ipsos/Reuters, released 17.09.2015:
Overall, 1,570 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, 536 RRV, MoE = +/-4.8

All GOP candidates:


Margin: Trump +17 (among RRV and IRV, R leaning), Trump +21 (among RRV only)

Three way race:


Margin: Trump +9 (among RRV and IRV, R leaning), Trump +13 (among RRV only)



Gravis (R) / OAN, released 18.09.2015:
1,337 RRV, MoE = +/-3.0
The link will probably be defunct pretty quickly, OAN uses the same URL for all polling results and until now, I have not seen any archive links. For this reason, two screenshots.


Margin: TIE (Fiorina/Trump)

Also:






Morning Consult, released 18.09.2015:
504 RRV, MoE = +/-4.4

Trump 36
Carson 12
Fiorina 10
Rubio 9
Cruz 7
Bush 6
Christie 6
Kasich 4
Paul 2
Huckabee 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +24


IPSOS/Reuters, released 20.09.2015:
557 RRV, MoE = +/-5.0




Margin: Trump +24.9

CNN/ORC, released 20.09.2015:
1,006 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
749 RRV + IV, R-leaning, MoE = +/-4.5

Trump 24
Fiorina 15
Carson 14
Rubio 11
Bush 9
Cruz 6
Huckabee 6
Paul 4
Christie 3
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +9

NBC/Survey Monkey, released 20.09.2015:
5,113 Adults, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 2,070 RRV, MoE = +/-3.8

Trump 29
Carson 14
Fiorina 11
Bush 8
DN/someone else/NA 8
Rubio 7
Cruz 7
Paul 3
Walker 3
Christie 3
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +15

Zogby Analytics, released 21.09.2015:
405 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 33
Carson 13
Bush 9
Fiorina 7
Cruz 6
Paul 5
Rubio 5
Kasich 5
Christie 3
Walker 2
Huckabee 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +20


Morning Consult, released 21.09.2015:
4,033 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,551 RRV, MoE = +/-3.7?

Trump 32
Carson 12
Bush 11
Fiorina 6
Cruz 5
Rubio 5
Christie 4
Huckabee 4
Walker 3
Paul 3
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +20

Fox News, released 23.09.2015:
1,013 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them 398 RRV, MoE not listed, likely +/-5.0




Margin: Trump +12

Bloomberg/Selzer, released 24.09.2015:
1,001 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 391 RRV, MoE not listed



Margin: Trump +5

Quinnipiac, released 24.09.2015:
1,475 RV, MoE = +/-2.5
of them, 737 RRV, MoE = +/-3.6

Trump 25
Carson 17
Fiorina 12
Bush 10
Rubio 9
Cruz 7
------------
Christie 2
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
Paul 1
Pataki 1
all others 0

Margin: Trump +8

IPSOS/Reuters, released 26.09.2015:
1,582 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, 577 RRV, MoE = +/-4.7


Margin: Trump +14 (All), +12 (GOP RV only), +15 (IRV)



Top 3:

Margin: Trump +6 (All), +2 (GOP RV only), +11 (IRV)


NBC/ WSJ poll, released 27.09.2015:
206 RLV, MoE = +/-6.5





Margin: Trump +1

Suffolk/USA Today, released 30.09.2015:
1,000 RLV, +/-3.0
of them, 380 RLV and ILV, r-leaning

Trump 23.4
Carson 13.3
Fiorina 13.2
Rubio 9.0
Bush 7.9
Cruz 5.5
Kasich 2.4
Paul 2.1
Jindal 1.3

all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +10.1



Morning Consult, released 30.09.2015:
1,543 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 637 RRV

Trump 30
Carson 15
Bush 10
Fiorina 9
Rubio 9
Cruz 5
Christie 4
Huckabee 3
Paul 3

all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +15



GOP NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Arizona:


MBQF Consulting, released 16.09.2015:
643 RLV, MoE = +/-3.9



Margin: Trump +8.6



Florida:

Florida Atlantic University (FAU), released 22.09.2015:
801 RV, MoE = not listed
of them, 352 RRV, MoE = not listed






Margin: Trump +12.3 (over Rubio)


Georgia:

Landmark Communications / Rosetta Stone, released 26.09.2015:
600 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 30.8
Carson 17.9
Fiorina 13.2
Rubio 9.4
Cruz 7.9
Bush 7.5
Huckabee 4.4
Kasich 1.9
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +12.9

The demographics of this poll, of the 600 RLV:


87.7% of the GOP electorate in Georgia is over 40, 33.7% of it is over 65 and 96% of it is white in a state that is 30.5% black and only 9.6% is 65 or older. Georgia is one of the states where the composition of the GOP is most out of step with the overall dynamic of the state.

Iowa:

PPP (D), released 22.09.2015:
488 RRV, MoE = +/-4.4

Trump 24
Carson 17
Fiorina 13
Rubio 8
Bush 6
Huckabee 6
Walker 5
Paul 4
Jindal 4
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +7

Two-way polling:

Trump 51
Bush 37
Margin: Trump +14

Carson 60
Trump 33
Margin: Carson +27

Fiorina 54
Trump 36
Margin: Fiorina +18

Rubio 53
Trump 38
Margin: Rubio +15

Walker 51
Trump 37
Margin: Walker +14



Michigan:
Marketing Research Group (MRG), released 16.09.2015:
600 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0




Margin: Carson +2


New Hampshire:


WBUR Poll, released 16.09.2015:
404 RLV, MoE = +/-3.9
Crosstabs.




Margin: Trump +4



Voter Gravity (touchtone flash-poll), released 18.09.2015:
2,389 RRV, MoE =not listed.






Margin: Fiorina +3

CNN/UNH/WMUR, released 24.09.2015:
344 RRV, MoE = +/-5.3

Trump 26
Fiorina 16
Rubio 9
Carson 8
Bush 7
Kasich 7
Christie 5
Cruz 5
Paul 3
all others 1 or less (Huckabee, Jindal and Santorum 0)

Margin: Trump +10

Interesting internal from the CNN New Hampshire poll:







North Carolina:

Elon University, released 26.09.2015;
1,075 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 517 RLV, MoE = unknown, likely +/-4.5

Trump 21.5
Carson 20.9
Fiorina 9.9
Rubio 7.4
Bush 7.0
Cruz 6.2
Huckabee 4.1
Paul 2.3
Kasich 2.1
Walker 1.6
Christie 1.6
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +0.6 (statistical tie, near-mathematical tie)


PPP (D), released 29.09.2015:
1,269 RV, MoE = +/-2.8
Of them, 578 RRV, MoE = +/-5.1

Trump 26
Carson 21
Fiorina 12
Rubio 10
Cruz 9
Huckabee 6
Bush 5
Kasich 4
Christie 2
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +5


one-one one matchups:

Carson 54 / Trump 38, Carson +16
Fiorina 49 / Trump 45, Fiorina +4
Rubio 47 / Trump 44, Rubio +3
Trump 56 / Bush 36, Trump +20


Texas:

Texas Lyceum Poll, released 30.09.2015:
1,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 261 RRV, MoE = +/-6.01

Trump 21
Cruz 16
Carson 12
Bush 10
Fiorina 6
Rubio 3
Huckabee 2

All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +5


Utah:

Dan Jones and Associates, released 22.09.2015:
604 Adults, MoE = +/-4.0



Margin: Carson +6



Wisconsin:

Marquette Poll, released 29.09.2015:
803 RV, MoE = +/-4.1
of them, 321 RRV, MoE= +/-6.5

Trump 20
Carson 16
Rubio 14
Fiorina 11
Bush 7
Cruz 5
Paul 5
Huckabee 3
Christie 3
Kasich 3
All others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +4