24 August 2015

50%+ of the 2015 Virginia legislative elections have only one candidate on the ballot for November





The Old Dominion does its legislative elections in so-called "off" years, so we can often expect that not every race will have two candidates. But this is ridiculous:

Ballot Access News - Over Half of Virginia Legislative Races in November 2015 Have Only One Candidate on Ballot


The current partisan balance of Virginian politics:

Virginia General Assembly - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Virginia House of Delegates - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

House of Delegates (lower house): 67 R / 32 D, one seat vacant (was I)

Senate of Virginia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Senate of Virginia (upper House): 21 R / D 19

Government of Virginia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Executive: Governor (D), Lt. Governor (D), AG (D)


So, Virginia has a split government very similar to our national Government and in roughly the same proportions. As a matter of fact, in 2012, Obama won Virginia by +3.87 and he won nationally be +3.86 - two statistics that are nearly identical to each other. If you calculate the seat percentages for the Virginia Senate, it's 53% R / 47% D. Nationally, in the US Senate, it's 54% R / 46% D (including two D-leaning Is).

Now, some of these state seats may or may not have been competitive for a long time, but when you consider that taxpayer money pays for elections, 78 of those 140 races are meaningless, since there will be no challenger.

That is a travesty and man, oh, man, that is some real apathy. This is not what Democracy is supposed to be about.

Thanks to Richard Winger of BALLET ACCESS NEWS for bringing attention to this story.


More information here:

Virginia House of Delegates elections, 2015 - Ballotpedia

Virginia State Senate elections, 2015 - Ballotpedia

23 August 2015

2016 polling round-up, 22-31.08.2015: Presidential matchups

National Presidential Matchups



3,567 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

This is the first national poll by a Right-Wing leaning pollster to put out matchups for practically every GOP candidate against Hillary. These figures go well against pretty much every other national poll, so the next round of polling from established pollster will either confirm these numbers, or this particular poll may go down in history as an extreme outlier.

Clinton 54 / Graham 46, Clinton +8
Clinton 52 / Pataki 48Clinton +4
Clinton 52 / Walker 48Clinton +4
Clinton 51 / Cruz 49Clinton +2
Clinton 51 / Cruz 49Clinton +2
Clinton 51 / Perry 49Clinton +2
Clinton 51 / Huckabee 49Clinton +2
Clinton 50 / Bush 50, -absolute tie-
Clinton 50 / Rubio 50, -absolute tie-
Clinton 50 / Christie 50, -absolute tie-
Clinton 50 / Paul 50, -absolute tie-
Clinton 48 / Carson 52Carson +4
Clinton 48 / Kasich 52Kasich +4
Clinton 48 / Jindal 52Jindal +4
Clinton 46 / Trump 54Trump +8

Fifteen of the 17 declared Republican candidate were polled against Hillary. The margins range from +8 for Clinton over Graham to +8 for Trump over Clinton. Clinton wins 7 matchups, there are four mathematical ties and the GOP wins 4 matchups.  This is the only poll in which Trump wins nationally.

Since OAN keeps this on it's national polling page, this means that the next results will replace these, and so I have made screenshots of the entire poll:





McClatchy/Marist was the other pollster to poll all of the GOP candidates against Hillary, with vastly different results.


Overall: 1,563 RV, MoE = +/-2.5
Numbers in parentheses = the previous Qpiac poll.

Clinton 44 / Rubio 43, Clinton +1
Clinton 42 (41) / Bush 40 (42), Clinton +2 (Bush +1)
Clinton 45 (48) / Trump 41 (36), Clinton +4 (+12)

Clinton 40 / Bush 24 / Trump 24, Clinton +16

Biden 44 (43) / Bush 41 (42), Biden +3 (+1)
Biden 45 / Bush 39, Biden +6
Biden 48 (49) / Trump 40 (37), Biden +8 (+12)

Sanders 40 Rubio 41, Rubio +1
Sanders 44 (45) / Trump 41 (37), Sanders +3 (+8)
Sanders 43 (39) / Bush 39 (44), Sanders +4


Morning Consult, released 31.08.2015:
Overall, 2,015 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,102 RRV, MoE = likely +/-3.5
parentheses = the previous Morning Consult poll

Clinton 43 (47) / Trump 42 (41) , Clinton +1 (+6)
Clinton 43 (44) / Bush 41 (41) , Clinton +2 (+3)
Clinton 44 (46) / Paul 39 (39) , Clinton +5 (+7)
Clinton 45 (46) / Rubio 39 (39) , Clinton +6 (+7)
Clinton 46 (48) / Walker 35 (35) , Clinton +11 (+13)

Poll internals, from Morning Consult:

Except against Trump, Clinton scores a higher % with Democratic MEN than with Democratic women.


Womens' vote:

Clinton 46 / Bush 37, Clinton +9
Clinton 45 / Paul 35, Clinton +10
Clinton 47 / Trump 35, Clinton +12
Clinton 47 / Rubio 34, Clinton +14
Clinton 47 / Walker 30, Clinton +17

Women's vote benchmark from 2012: Obama +11

Mens' vote:

Clinton 45 / Walker 42, Clinton +3
Clinton 43 / Paul 43, TIE
Clinton 43 / Walker 46, Walker +3
Clinton 40 / Bush 46, Bush +6
Clinton 39 / Trump 50, Trump +11

Mens' vote benchmark from 2012: Romney +7


Latino vote:

Clinton 48 / Bush 42, Clinton +6
Clinton 53 / Paul 35, Clinton +18
Clinton 55 / Rubio 36, Clinton +19
Clinton 56 / Walker 33, Clinton +22
Clinton 58 / Trump 33, Clinton +26

Latino vote benchmark from 2012: Obama +47


White vote:

Clinton 40 / Walker 40, TIE
Clinton 39 / Rubio 44, Rubio +5
Clinton 38 / Paul 44, Paul +6
Clinton 38 / Bush 46, Bush +8
Clinton 37 / Trump 47, Trump +10

White vote benchmark from 2012: Romney +20



Black Vote:

Clinton 74 / Bush 16, Clinton +58
Clinton 75 / Trump 17, Clinton +58
Clinton 75 / Paul 13, Clinton +62
Clinton 76 / Rubio 14, Clinton +62
Clinton 80 / Walker 9, Clinton +71

Black vote benchmark from 2012: Obama +87

Rural vote:

Clinton 35 / Walker 40, Walker +5
Clinton 37 / Rubio 45, Rubio +8
Clinton 35 / Bush 45, Bush +10
Clinton 35 / Paul 45, Paul +10
Clinton 31 / Trump 52, Clinton +19

Metric not measured but assumed is roughly GOP +30.






State Presidential Matchups

Michigan:

FOX 2 / Detroit / Mitchell Research (R), released 21.08.2015:
1,310 LV, MoE = +/-2.7

Clinton 39 / Trump 40, Trump +1
Clinton 40 / Bush 41, Bush +1
Clinton 36 / Rubio 45, Rubio +9

EPIC/MRA, released 25.08.2015:
600 LV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 40 / Bush 45, Bush +5
Clinton 44 / Trump 42, Clinton +2


Virginia:

Roanoke University Poll, released 25.08.2015:
608 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 41 / Rubio 40, Clinton +1
Clinton 42 / Bush 40, Clinton +2
Clinton 42 / Walker 38, Clinton +4
Clinton 43 / Trump 32, Clinton +11
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hampshire:


PPP (D), released 26.08.2015:
841 RV, MoE = +/-3.4

Clinton 41 / Kasich 43, Kasich +2
Clinton 46 / Trump 44, Clinton +2
Clinton 45 / Fiorina 42, Clinton +3
Clinton 46 / Bush 39, Clinton +7
Clinton 48 / Carson 40, Clinton +8
Clinton 47 / Walker 39, Clinton +8
Clinton 47 / Rubio 39, Clinton +8
Clinton 46 / Christie 38, Clinton +8
Clinton 47 / Paul 37, Clinton +10
Clinton 49 / Cruz 38, Clinton +11
Clinton 49 / Huckabee 36, Clinton +13

Clinton 42 / Trump 28Bush 22, Clinton +15


Sanders 47 / Rubio 39, Sanders +8
Sanders 46 / Bush 38, Sanders +8
Sanders 50 / Trump 41, Sanders +9
Sander 48 / Rubio 35, Sanders +13

That makes for 15 of 16 matchups where the Democratic candidates win, and 13 of those 15 are way outside of the MoE. Comparatively speaking, Bernie Sanders does better in this poll than Hillary.

Historical context:

NH, 2012: Obama +5.58%
NH, 2008: Obama +9.61%
NH, 2004: Kerry +1.37%
NH, 2000: Bush 43 +1.27%
NH, 1996: Clinton (Bill) +9.95%
NH, 1992: Clinton (Bill) +1.22%

Right now, NH is NOT looking "battlegroundy".


West Virginia:

Orion Strategies, released 27.08.2015:
406 Respondents overall, MoE = +/-4.9

Trump 53 / Clinton 30, Trump +23
Generic Republican 58 / Clinton 26, Generic Republican +32

xxx

2016 polling round-up, 22-31.08.2015: fav/unfav, approve/disapprove, other issues

Presidential approval:

McClatchy / Marist, released 24.08.2015:
964 RV, MoE = +/-3.2

Obama approve 47 / disapprove 47 - +/- 0

Some internals:



-and, in historical perspective:





1,563 RV, MoE = +/-2.5

Obama approve 45 / disapprove 53, -8

Internals:


Morning Consult, released 31.08.2015:
Overall, 2,015 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 9,413 DRV, MoE = likely +/-3.5

Obama approval



Congressional Approval:


McClatchy / Marist, released 24.08.2015:
964 RV, MoE = +/-3.2

Republican approve 19 / disapprove 68, -49

Some internals:





1,563 RV, MoE = +/-2.5

Congressional Republican approval 12 / disapprove 81, -69
Congressional Democratic approval 27 / disapproval 66, -39

Internals:



Republican Party approval: GOP fav 31 / unfav 58, -27
Democratic Party approval: DEM fav 40 / unfav 50, -10



Direction of the Country:


McClatchy / Marist, released 24.08.2015:
964 RV, MoE = +/-3.2

US: going right 34 / going wrong 60, -26

Some internals:




And, for historical contrast:



1,563 RV, MoE = +/-2.5



Undergraduate student tuition without loans:


1,563 RV, MoE = +/-2.5

support  61 / don't support 34, support +27



Latino Voter fav/unfav:

2,183 Hispanic Adults, circa 700+ per candidate polled, MoE = +/-5.0

Democratic candidates:



In specific: Hillary Clinton fav 58 / unfav 18, +40



Republican candidates:


In specific, Donald Trump fav 14 / unfav 65, -51





West Virginia:

406 "respondents", MoE = +/-4.9

This internal over "Obamacare" vs. "ACA":



Democratic voter views of Trump in Iowa:


Selzer, released 29.08.2015:
404 DLV, MoE = +/-4.9



















2016 polling round-up, 22-31.08.2015: Senatorial/Gubernatorial

Senatorial D-R matchups:

Quinnipiac, released 25.08.2015:
Ohio: 1,096 RV, MoE = +/- 3.0
Pennsylvania: 1,085 RV, MoE = +/- 3.0

US SENATE – OHIO (Quinnipiac)
Ted Strickland (D) 44%
Rob Portman (R-inc) 41%



Rob Portman (R-inc) 46%
PG Sittenfeld (D) 25%

US SENATE – PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac)
Pat Toomey (R-inc) 48%
Joe Sestak (D) 33%


Pat Toomey (R-inc) 48%
Katie McGinty (D) 32%

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hampshire:


841 RV, MoE = +/-3.4

Senatorial:

Ayotte (R) 44 / Hassan (D) 43, Ayotte +1
Ayotte (R) 45 / Pappas (D) 31Ayotte +14

PPP (D), released 27.08.2015:
841 RV, MoE = +/-3.4

Gubernatorial:

Hassan (D) 48 / Bradley (R) 39, Hassan +9
Hassan (D) 48 / Sununu (R) 71, Hassan +1

Sununu (R) 39 / Norelli (D) 34, Sununu +5
Sununu (R) 39 / Van Ostern (D) 32Sununu +7
Sununu (R) 38 / Pappas (D) 34Sununu +4

Bradley (R) 38 / Van Ostern (D) 31Bradley +7
Bradley (R) 38 / Pappas (D) 33Bradley +5


Franklin-Marshall, released 27.08.2015:


Pat Toomey (R-inc) 41%
Joe Sestak (D) 29%


Pat Toomey (R-inc) 35%
Katie McGinty (D) 28%

2016 polling round-up, 22-31.08.2015: GOP Nomination

This blog entry will lengthen as the week goes by...

National GOP nomination polling:

IPSOS/Reuters, released 21.08.2015:
501 RRV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 31.9
Bush 15.2
Carson 8.3
Walker 6.7
Huckabee 6.1
wouldn't vote 5.0
Rubio 4.4
Cruz 4.0
Christie 3.5
Fiorina 3.4
Paul 3.2
Perry 2.7
Kasich 2.4
Jindal 1.4
Santorum 1.1
Gilmore 0.5
Graham 0.3
Pataki 0.0

Margin: Trump +16.7




In a three-man matchup:

Trump 44
Bush 29
Carson 25

Margin: Trump +15


IPSOS/Reuters, released 25.08.2015:
511 RRV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 30.1
Huckabee 10.4
Bush 8.3
wouldn't vote 8.0
Walker 6.7
Rubio 5.1
Cruz 4.4
Paul 3.9
Fiorina 3.8
Kasich 2.7
Christie 2.5
Perry 2.3
Jindal 1.1
Santorum 1.0
all others - less than 1.0

Margin: Trump +19.7





The Economist /YouGOV, released 25.08.2015:
2000 A, MoE = +/-2.8

Trump 25
Carson 11
Bush 9
Rubio 9
Walker 9
DN/other 8
Cruz 7
Fiorina 6
Kasich 4
Christie 3
Huckabee 3
all others 1 or less


Margin: Trump +14


Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN, released 26.08.2015:
3,567 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Trump 40.1
Carson 13.0
Bush 10.0
Cruz 7.0
Walker 9
Fiorina 5.2
Kasich 4.8
Rubio 4.7
Huckabee 3.7
Walker 3.5
----
Perry 1.5
Paul 1.5
Christie 1.4
Pataki 1.1
Santorum 1.0
Jindal 0.9
Graham 0.6

Margin: Trump +27.1


Civis Analytics (D), released 26.08.2015:
757 RRV

DN/NA 17
Trump 16
Carson 11
Bush 9
Rubio 7
Huckabee 7
Cruz 7
Walker 5
Kasich 3
Fiorina 3
Paul 3
Christie 2
Perry 2
Santorum 1



Margin:  DN/NA +1, Trump +5


Quinnipiac, released 27.08.2015:
Overall: 1,563 RV, MoE = +/-2.5
of them, 666 RRV, MoE = +/-3.8

Trump 28
Carson 12
Bush 9
Rubio 7
Cruz 7
Walker 6
Kasich 5
Fiorina 5
Christie 4
Huckabee 3
Paul 2
Perry 1
Santorum 1



Margin:  DN/NA +1, Trump +16


IPSOS/Reuters, released 27.08.2015:
Overall: 1,152 Adults, MoE = +/-3.3
of them, 415 RRV, MoE = +/-5.5



Margin: Trump +20 (total) Trump +20 (RRV only), Trump +24 (IRV only)

3-Way race: IPSOS











Margin: Trump +23 (total) Trump +24 (RRV only), Trump +25 (IRV only)


Morning Consult, released 31.08.2015:
Overall, 2,015 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,102 RRV, MoE = likely +/-3.5

Trump 37
Bush 9
Carson 9
Huckabee 6
Rubio 6
Walker 5
Paul 4
Cruz
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
Kasich 2
Santorum 2
Perry 1
Jindal 1
Santorum 1
all others 0

Margin: Trump +28

----------------------------------------------------------------------------



State GOP nomination polling:

New Hampshire:


PPP (D), released 25.08.2015:
436 RRV, MoE = +/-4.7


Trump 35
Kasich 11
Fiorina 10
Bush 7
Walker 7
Carson 6
Christie 4
Cruz 4
Rubio 4
Paul 3
Perry 2
Pataki 1
Santorum 1
all others 0

Margin: Trump +24


South Carolina:

453 LV, MoE = +/-4.6


Trump 30
Carson 15
Bush 9
Walker 6
Rubio 6
Fiorina 6
Cruz 5
Walker 4
Graham 4
Kasich 3
Huckabee 3
Paul 3
Christie 2
Santorum 1
all others 0

Margin: Trump +15

Some key internals:




West Virginia:

Orion Strategies, released 27.08.2015:
406 Respondents overall, MoE = +/-4.9

Other/Undecided 32
Trump 29
Rubio 9
Bush 7
Huckabee 7
Carson 7
Cruz 5
Walker 2
Fiorina 2
Kasich 1
Paul 1

Margin: Other/Undecided +3, Trump +20


Iowa, released 29.08.2015:
400 LRV, MoE = +/-4.9



Margin: Trump +5



Monmouth University Iowa Poll, released 31.08.2015:
405 RLV, MoE = +/-4.9

Trump 23
Carson 23
Fiorina 10
Cruz 9
Walker 7
Bush 5
Kasich 4
Paul 3
Huckabee 2
Santorum 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: -TIE-




xxx

2016 polling round-up, 22-31.08.2015: DEM Nomination

This blog entry will lengthen as the week goes by...

National:

IPSOS/Reuters, released 21.08.2015:
625 DRV, MoE = +/-4.5

Clinton 48.5
Sanders 24.8
Biden 12.0
wouldn't vote 9.6
Cuomo 2.1
O'Mally 1.0
Gillibrand 1.0
Chafee 0.6
Webb 0.4

Margin: Clinton +23.7








The Economist /YouGOV, released 25.08.2015:
2000 A, MoE = +/-2.8

Clinton 47
Sanders 26
Biden 14
undecided 9
O'Malley 1
Webb 1
Chaffee 1

Margin: Clinton +21


IPSOS/Reuters, released 25.08.2015:
531 DRV, MoE = +/-5.0

Clinton 47.4
Sanders 22.4
Biden 14.3
wouldn't vote 10.4
Webb 1.7
Cuomo 1.7
O'Malley 1.4
Gillibrand 0.5
Chafee 0.2


Margin: Clinton +25.0





Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN, released 26.08.2015:
3,567 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Clinton 53.7
Sanders 21.0
Biden 13.4
Warren 7.1
Webb 2.1
O'Malley 2.1
Chaffee 0.9

Margin: Clinton +32.7

Because the OANN website updates the figures, here is a screenshot of the DEM numbers, since the link in future will not reflect these numbers:




Rasmussen Reports, released 26.08.2015:
536 LDV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 50
Sanders 24
Webb 2
O'Malley 2
Chaffee 2

Margin: Clinton +26


Quinnipiac, released 27.08.2015:
Overall: 1,563 RV, MoE = +/-2.5
of them, 647 DRV, MoE = +/-3.9

Clinton 45
Sanders 22
Biden 18
DN/NA 11
Webb 1
O'Malley 1
Chaffee 0

Margin: Clinton +22


IPSOS/Reuters, released 27.08.2015:
Overall: 1,152 Adults, MoE = +/-3.3
of them, 445 DRV, MoE = +/-5.2





























Margin: Clinton +22 (all), Clinton +26 (DRV only), Clinton +14 (IRV only)


TOP-3, IPSOS:







Margin: Clinton +23 (all), Clinton +28 (DRV only), Clinton +15 (IRV only)


Morning Consult, released 31.08.2015:
Overall, 2,015 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 9,413 DRV, MoE = likely +/-3.5

Clinton 52
Sanders 23
undecided/DN 4
Webb 2
O'Malley 1
Chaffee 1

Margin: Clinton +29

State DEM nomination polling:


Iowa:

Suffolk/USA today, released 25.08.2015:
500 DLV, MoE = +/-4.4

Clinton 54
Sanders 20
Biden 11
undecided 10
O'Malley 4
Webb 1
Chaffee 0

Margin: Clinton +34

Selzer, released 29.08.2015:
404 DLV, MoE = +/-4.9









Margin: Clinton +7


New Hamshire:

PPP (D), released 25.08.2015:
370 DRV, MoE = +/-5.1

Sanders 42
Clinton 35
undecided 10
Webb 4
Chaffee 2
Lessig 1


Margin: Sanders +7

West Virginia:

Orion Strategies, released 27.08.2015:
406 Respondents overall, MoE = +/-4.9

Other/Undecided 49
Clinton 23
Biden 16
Sanders 12

Margin: Other/Undecided +26, Clinton +7

xxx



22 August 2015

Polling round-up, August 16-21, 2015

There were seven major polls released between Sunday, August 16th and yesterday, August 20th, 2015.

I am going to do this by category.

First: nomination polling R and D.

Then:  the presidential matchups.

Then:  fav/for some of the candidates, Pres. Obama's approval ratings and the Gallup fav numbers for the GOPers following their first debate.

This week in polling was not a good week for Hillary Clinton and it was essentially a very good week for Donald Trump, across the board.


GOP NOMINATION - national

FOX NEWS POLL, released 16.08.2015:
Overall: 1,008 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Trump 25
Carson 12
Cruz 10
Bush 9
Huckabee 6
Walker 6
Fiorina 5
Kasich 4
Rubio 4
Paul 3
Christie 3
all others: 1 or less

margin: Trump +13

Morning Consult, released 17.08.2015
2,013 RV, MoE = +/-3.5

Trump 32
Bush 12
Carson 7
Huckabee 6
Rubio 6
Cruz 5
Paul 4
Fiorina 4
Christie 4
Perry 2
all others: 1 or less

margin: Trump +20


CNN Poll, released 18.08.2015
Overall: 1,001 Adults, among them 897 RV, MoE =3.0

Trump 24
Bush 13
Carson 8
Walker 7
Rubio 7
Paul 6
Fiorina 5
Kasich 5
Christie 4
Cruz 4
Huckabee 4
Perry 2
all others: 1 or less

margin: Trump +11


The three national nomination polls all show Trump easily on top.



DEM NOMINATION - national

FOX NEWS POLL, released 16.08.2015:
Overall: 1,008 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 49
Sanders 30
Biden 10
Webb 1
O'Malley 1
Chaffee 0
D/N 10

margin: Clinton +19


Morning Consult, released 17.08.2016:

2,013 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Clinton 50
Sanders 24
O'Malley 1
Chaffee 0
D/N 20

margin: Clinton +26

CNN Poll, released 19.08.2015:
Overall: 1,001 Adults, among them 897 RV, MoE =3.0

Clinton 47
Sanders 29
Biden 14
Webb 1.8
O'Malley 2
Webb 1
DN / someone else 7

margin: Clinton +19

The three DEM nomination polls (national) show Clinton easily on top.


DEM nomination - by state

Florida:

1,080 DLV, MoE = +/-3.0
officially released 28.07.2015, first published elsewhere 17.08.2015

Clinton 55.1
Sanders 29.1
Webb 1.8
O'Malley 0.7
Chafee 0.2
DN / someone else 13.2

margin: Clinton +26


North Carolina:

PPP (D) poll, released 17.08.2015
957 LV, MoE= +/-3.2

Clinton 55
Sanders 19
O'Malley 2
Chafee 2
Webb 1
DN / someone else 15

margin: Clinton +36




Wisconsin:

Marquette poll, released 20.08.2015:
802 RV, MoE = +/-4.3

Clinton 44.4
Sanders 32.2
Biden 11.7
O'Malley 0.6
Webb 0.5
Chafee 0.5
DN / someone else 10.0

margin: Clinton +12.2


Arizona:
Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN, released 21.08.2015:
Arizona Polling Results
1,433 RV, MoE = +/-2.6

2015-08-021 Gravis-OANN Arizona DEM poll.png

Margin:
 Clinton +22


GOP nomination - by state

North Carolina:

PPP (D) poll, released 17.08.2015
957 LV, MoE= +/-3.2

Trump 24
Carson 14
Bush 13
Cruz 10
Rubio 9
Walker 6
Huckabee 6
Fiorina 6
Paul 3
Santorum 2
Christie 2
all others: 1 or less

margin: Trump +10


Wisconsin:

Marquette poll, released 20.08.2015:
802 RV, MoE = +/-4.3


Walker 25
Carson 13.2
Trump 9.1
Cruz 8.2
Fiorina 7.4
Rubio 7.4
Bush 5.9
Huckabee 3.5
Paul 2.4
Christie 2.1
Jindal 1.5
all others: 1 or less
DN/someone else 10.1

margin: Walker +11.8


Arizona:

MBQF Consulting
787 RLV, MoE = +/-3.5
2015-08-017 MBQF AZ GOP primary poll.png 

Margin: Trump +12.8

Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN, released 21.08.2015:
Arizona Polling Results
1,433 RV, MoE = +/-2.6

2015-08-021 Gravis-OANN Arizona GOP poll.png

Margin: 
Trump +16.9



Illinois:
Victory Research, released 21.08.2015
New Poll Shows Trump Leads GOP Race in Illinois
801 LV, MoE = +/-3.5

Trump 23
Bush 17
Walker 11
Carson 6
Fiorina 5
Rubio 5
Cruz 4
Santorum 3
Kasich 2

all others: 1 or less

margin: Trump +6


Presidential matchups, national:

FOX NEWS POLL, released 16.08.2015:
Overall: 1,008 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 42 / Bush 44Bush +2
Clinton 44 / Rubio 46Rubio +2
Clinton 47 / Trump 42Clinton +5
Clinton 47 / Fiorina 40Clinton +7

Clinton 40 / Bush 29 / Trump 23Clinton +11
Clinton 42 / Rubio 30 / Trump 22Clinton +12
Clinton 40 / Trump 25 / Fiorina 24Clinton +15

Bush and Rubio each win a matchup within the MoE (statistical tie). Clinton wins 2 two-way matchups and all three 3-way matchups with margins outside of the MoE.


CNN Poll, released 19.08.2015:
Overall: 1,001 Adults, among them 897 RV, MoE =3.0


Clinton 51 / Trump 45Clinton +6
Clinton 52 / Walker 46Clinton +6
Clinton 52 / Bush 43Clinton +9
Clinton 53 / Fiorina 43Clinton +10

Some interesting internals from the CNN poll:

2015-08-016 CNN poll Biden question.png 

-and-

2015-08-016 CNN poll Clinton vs Trump internals.png



Presidential matchups, state-level:



North Carolina:

PPP (D) poll, released 07.08.2015
957 LV, MoE= +/-3.2
values in parentheses are from the previous PPP (D) poll.

Clinton 44 (44) / Paul 40 (46)Clinton +4 (Paul +1)
Clinton 40 (46) / Christie 39 (43)Clinton +1 (+3)
Clinton 42 (45) / Bush 42 (43), tie (Clinton +3)
Clinton 41 (45) / Fiorina 42 (45), Fiorina +1 (tie)
Clinton 41 Kasich 42 , Kasich +1
Clinton 43 (47) / Cruz 45 (46)Cruz +2 (Clinton +1)
Clinton 41 (43) / Walker 44 (47)Walker +3 (+4)
Clinton 42 (47) / Trump 45 (44), Trump +3 (Clinton +1)
Clinton 41 (46) / Rubio 45 (47)Rubio +4 (+1)
Clinton 45 (45) / Huckabee 49 (49)Huckabee +4 (+4)
Clinton 40 (44) / Carson 47 (49)Carson +7 (+3)





Carson comes out best in this affair, at 7 points ahead of Clinton, 1/2 of Bush 43's margins from 2000 and 2004 but considerably better than Romney's +2 from 2012. In this poll, Clinton wins 2 of 11 matchups, ties with Bush and loses the other 8 matchups. Clinton's +4 over Paul (which is an improvement over the previous poll) and Rubio's and Huckabee's +4 and of course Carson's +4 are outside of the MoE. The other 7 margins are within the MoE.

I've analysed this many time, so suffice it to say that North Carolina has truly become a battleground state, now for the third cycle in a row.







Quinnipiac swing state poll (FL, OH, PA), released 20.08.2015:


Florida: 1,093 RV, +/-3.0
Ohio: 1,096 RV, +/-3.0
Pennsylvania: 1,085 RV, +/-3.0
Values in parenthesis (for Clinton), where possible, are from the previous Quinnipiac poll.

Florida:

Clinton 38 (46) / Bush 49 (42)Bush +11 (Clinton +4)
Clinton 39 (47)  / Rubio 51 (44)Rubio +12 (Clinton +3)
Clinton 41 Trump 43Trump +2
Clinton 37 / Bush 36 / Trump 19Clinton +1

Biden 38 / Bush 51,  Bush +13
Biden 42 / Rubio 48Rubio +6
Biden 45 / Trump 42Biden +3

Sanders 35  / Bush 54Bush +19
Sanders 36  / Rubio 52Rubio +16
Sanders 41  / Trump 45Trump +4


Ohio:

Clinton 41 (42) / Bush 39 (41)Clinton +2 (+1)
Clinton 40 (45)  / Rubio 42 (42)Rubio +2 (Clinton +3)
Clinton 43 Trump 38Clinton +5
Clinton 37 / Bush 27 / Trump 23Clinton +10

Biden 42 / Bush 39,  Biden +3
Biden 42 / Rubio 41Biden +1
Biden 45 / Trump 38Biden +10

Sanders 36  / Bush 42Bush +6
Sanders 34  / Rubio 42Rubio +8
Sanders 42  / Trump 40Sanders +1


Pennsylvania:

Clinton 40 (45) / Bush 43 (41)Bush +3 (Clinton +4)
Clinton 40 (43)  / Rubio 47 (44)Rubio +7 (+1)
Clinton 45 Trump 40Clinton +5
Clinton 37 / Bush 29 / Trump 24Clinton +8

Biden 42 / Bush 43,  Bush +1
Biden 41 / Rubio 44Rubio +3
Biden 48 / Trump 40Biden +8


Sanders 36  / Bush 44Bush +8
Sanders 33  / Rubio 45Rubio +12
Sanders 44  / Trump 41Sanders +3

The Quinnipiac Poll put out four Clinton polls per state (12), 3 Biden polls per state (9) and three Sanders polls per state (9), making for 30 matchups. The numbers for Clinton, compared to two months ago, look grim in Florida, they have barely moved in Ohio, but they have moved moderately in Pennsylvania.

From the matchups in these three key states, Marco Rubio (who is at about 5-6% in GOP nomination polling) does the best and Donald Trump (who is leading in the GOP nomination polling) does the worst. All three Democratic candidates polled beat Trump in Pennsylvania and Ohio, but the Florida numbers represent a massive shift to both Bush and Rubio - that is statistically very significant and, at this time, bad news for Hillary Clinton. For Trump, no comparisons are possible to any past Quinnipiac polls.

I have noted many times over in the last 1.5 years that Qunnipiac has been very bearish on Hillary Clinton and shown narrower margins for her in all 6 of the key battleground states than any other pollster.


Wisconsin:

Marquette poll, released 20.08.2015:
802 RV, MoE = +/-4.3

Clinton 46.6 / Bush 41.5Clinton +5.1
Clinton 51.8 / Walker 41.5Clinton +10.3
Clinton 50.2 / Cruz 38.3Clinton +11.9
Clinton 51.1 / Trump 35.4Clinton +15.7

The Marquette poll shows Clinton between +5.1 and +15.7 over four potential Republican contenders. It's kind of a shame that Marco Rubio was also not polled, since he has been doing well elsewhere. Marquette was one of the two best pollsters for the Badger State in 2012 and is somewhat to Wisconsin as Selzer is to Iowa. This poll also flies in the face of the results of the Quinnipiac swing state polls, but is more in line with national polling overall.


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Michigan: it should be noted that a FOX2 / Detroit / Mitchell poll has already been posted at RCP, but the link does not work. As soon as I can actually see the data for real, I will post it, but not before. Mitchell has a reputation for very, very bad polling and has been off as far as 10 points in end polling, compared to the actual results. Just a fair warning.





FAV / UNFAV:


Morning Consult, released 17.08.2016:


2,013 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Clinton fav 43 / unfav 51, -8

CNN Poll, released 18.08.2015:
Overall: 1,001 Adults, among them 897 RV, MoE =3.0

Trump fav 36 / unfav 59, -23 (adults)
Trump fav 38 / unfav 58, -20 (RV)

Bush fav 34 / unfav 56, -22 (adults)
Bush fav 35 / unfav 57, -22 (RV)

CNN Poll, released 19.08.2015
Overall: 1,001 Adults, among them 897 RV, MoE =3.0

Biden fav 45 / unfav 44, +1 (adults)
Biden fav 47 / unfav 46, +1 (RV)

Clinton fav 44 / unfav 53, -9 (adults)
Clinton fav 43 / unfav 55, -12 (RV)

Sanders fav 35 / unfav 27, +8 (adults)
Sanders fav 36 / unfav 29, +7 (RV)

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North Carolina:

PPP (D) poll, released 17.08.2015:
957 LV, MoE= +/-3.2

Clinton fav 34 / unfav 57, -24
Trump fav 37 / unfav 52, -15
Bush fav 29 / unfav 49, -20
Rubio fav 37 / unfav 38, -1


Quinnipiac swing state poll (FL, OH, PA), released 20.08.2015:
Florida: 1,093 RV, +/-3.0
Ohio: 1,096 RV, +/-3.0
Pennsylvania: 1,085 RB, +/-3.0



Florida:

Clinton fav 37 / unfav 55, -18
Trump fav 36 / unfav 50, -14
Bush fav 53 / unfav 39, +14

Ohio:

Clinton fav 36 / unfav 54, -18
Trump fav 32 / unfav 54, -22
Bush fav 39 / unfav 43, -4

Pennsylvania:

Clinton fav 38 / unfav 55, -17
Trump fav 34 / unfav 55, -21
Bush fav 41 / unfav 43, -2


Wisconsin fav/unfav
Marquette poll, released 20.08.2015:
802 RV, MoE = +/-4.3


Walker fav 39.0 / unfav 57.2, -17.8
Bush fav 24.2 / unfav 46.9, -22.7
Clinton fav 38.2 / unfav 52.6, -14.4





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Approve/Disapprove (Obama):

National:

FOX NEWS POLL, released 16.08.2015:
Overall: 1,008 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Obama Approve 42 / disapprove 51, -9


Morning Consult, released 17.08.2016:
2,013 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Obama Approve 42 / disapprove 55, -13

Wisconsin Obama approval:
Marquette poll, released 20.08.2015:
802 RV, MoE = +/-4.3

Obama approve 48.5 / disapprove 47.6, +0.9


North Carolina Obama approval:
PPP (D) poll, released 07.08.2015
957 LV, MoE= +/-3.2

Obama approve 42 / disapprove 52, -10

Arizona Obama approval:

Gravis Marketing (R) / OANN, released 21.08.2015:
Arizona Polling Results
1,433 RV, MoE = +/-2.6

Obama approve 34 / disapprove 59, -25


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Republican images after the first debate:


2015 Gallup net favorables.png