29 April 2015

Bernie Sanders (I-S-D-VT) to announce his presidential bid on Thursday




A Democratic source close to the senator confirmed to The Hill that Sanders will announce his candidacy for the Democratic presidential nomination in a statement later this week, before heading back to his home state for a campaign kick-off event early next month...
...The former secretary of State has a huge lead over the field of potential Democratic contenders, taking 62 percent support in the latest Fox News poll released last week.

Also being reported here:


VPR News has learned from several sources that Independent U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders will announce his candidacy for the Democratic presidential nomination on Thursday.

Sanders will release a short statement on that day and then hold a major campaign kickoff in Vermont in several weeks...
...Sanders' entry into the Democratic race ensures that Hillary Clinton will face a challenge to win the support of the liberal wing of the party.
Sanders' basic message will be that the middle class in America has been decimated in the past two decades while wealthy people and corporations have flourished.
His opposition to a proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal (T.P.P.) shows how he plans to frame this key issue of his campaign.



And here:



Just before 4:30 PM EST, Sanders sent this message out on his Twitter account:




Here is Bernie Sanders' WIKI:


Sanders is a self-described democratic socialist,[1][2] and has praised Scandinavian-style social democracy.[3][4]
Sanders runs for office as an independent but caucuses with the Democratic Party and is counted as a Democrat for purposes of committee assignments. He was the only independent member of the House during most of his service and is the longest-serving independent in U.S. Congressional history. Starting in January 2015, Sanders became the Ranking Democratic Member on the Senate Budget Committee.[5]
In an interview with The Nation on March 6, 2014, Sanders stated that he is "prepared to run for President of the United States" in 2016.[6] On April 28, 2015, Sanders reportedly stated he would announce his bid for President of the United States on the upcoming Thursday.[7]



This means that Hillary Clinton is going to be primaried from the extreme Left. I suppose that you could possibly say that Bernie Sanders is to Hillary Clinton as Ted Cruz is to Jeb Bush.

The makes Sanders the 2nd or 3rd Democratic candidate in the race, for Lincoln Chafee already inofficially announced on CNN on April 16th.



Sanders has been named in some primary polling, and outside of Vermont, he is usually in the 3%-4% range. But that could change.


21 April 2015

Hillary week 1: polling results

It has now been 9 days since Hillary Clinton declared her candidacy and some polling results have come in. Not all of them were actually taken in the time-frame after her candidacy was declared, but as of this week, that will definitely be the case.


National:

Rasmussen Polling, released 14.04.2015
1000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0, polled on 09.04 and 12.04.2015
So, the second day of this poll was on the day that Hillary announced, but not after.



Clinton 47 / Paul 37, margin = Clinton +10
Clinton 47 / Cruz 37, margin = Clinton +10


So, based on data from before Clinton's announcement, she leads both declared Republicans by +10. One notes that Rasmussen ALWAYS finds a way to keep a Democrat under 50% as long as possible. Considering that Rasmussen has a proven mathematical bias of +4 to the Right, both of these margins could easily be more like +14, more in line with most all other national polling.


1,018 A, MoE = +/-3.0, polled from 16.04 to 19.04, all after Hillary and Rubio's announcements.
The values in (parentheses) are from the previous CNN/ORC poll for that particular matchup.

Clinton 55 (55) / Rubio 41 (42), margin = Clinton +14 (+13)
Clinton 56 (55) / Bush, J 39 (40), margin = Clinton +17 (+15)
Clinton 58 (54) / Paul 39 (43), margin = Clinton +19 (+11)
Clinton 58 (55) / Christie 39 (40), margin = Clinton +19 (+15)
Clinton 58 (55) / Huckabee 37 (41), margin = Clinton +21 (+14)
Clinton 59 (55) / Walker 37 (40), margin = Clinton +22 (+15)
Clinton 60 (60) / Cruz 36 (35), margin = Clinton +24 (+25)
Clinton 60 (56) / Carson 36 (40), margin = Clinton +24 (+16)

In the CNN/ORC poll, Hillary Clinton is well above the 50 mark in all 8 matchups and beats her prospective Republican opponents by between a landslide +14 and a blowout +24. There have now been 67 national polls, Hillary vs. specific GOP challengers, making for 241 matchups to-date, of which Hillary has decisively won 234 (97.10%). This poll, with the matchups against Cruz and Carson, make for the third time that Hillary has hit the 60% mark in a national poll.  I can guarantee you that since 1984, no candidate has hit the 60 mark in any national polling. If you go to the CNN link, you will see how well Hillary is doing in the female vote: +27 over Rubio / +32 over Bush, J and Carson / +34 over Christie / +35 over Walker and Cruz / +36 over Paul / +39 over Huckabee. Just to remind: Obama won the female vote in 2012 by +11Hillary is at double to triple that margin.

Also in the CNN/ORC poll:

Democratic nomination:

Hillary 69 / Biden 11 / Sanders 5 / Someone else 5 / Webb 3 / Chafee 1 / O'Malley 1, margin = Hillary +58


Republican nomination:

Bush, J 17 / Walker 12 / Paul 11 / Rubio 11 / Huckabee 9 / Cruz 7 / Someone else 5 / Carson 4 / Christie 3 / Santorum 3 / Fiorina 2 / Graham 2 / Jindal 2 / Kasich 2, margin = Bush, J +5


So, one week after the Clinton rollout, apparently, her method helped her among Democrats: she has gone from 62% to 69% and is absolutely the prohibitive front-runner for the DEM nomination.

The GOP field looks just as muddy as it has looked the entire time, which is not unusual for the opposition party going into an open cycle. However, none of these candidates are doing as well as Mitt Romney was doing at this point of time in 2011: he was hanging at right around 23% in most polling.



Wisconsin:


Marquette University Poll, released 16.04.2015
803 RV, MoE = +/-3.5, the interviews were conducted from 07.04 to 10.04, BEFORE Hillary's announcement.  The values in (parentheses) are from the previous Marquette poll for that particular matchup.



Clinton 49  / Paul 41, margin = Clinton +8
Clinton 49 (50) / Bush, J 38 (39), margin = Clinton +11 (+10)
Clinton 50 / Rubio 38, margin = Clinton +12 
Clinton 52 (53.3) / Walker 40 (40.6), margin = Clinton +12 (+12.7)
Clinton 52 (55.3)  / Cruz 36 (33.4), margin = Clinton +16 (+21.9)

The Marquette University poll shows Clinton leading five prospective GOP opponents by between +8 and +16. Obama won Wisconsin in 2008 by +14 and in 2012 by +7, so even Hillary's leanest value is larger than Obama's actual win from 2012. That being said, the margin against Cruz has shrunken some.  With values like that, if they hold, then Wisconsin is nowhere near being a battleground state in 2016.

A PPP (D) poll from Wisconsin in March showed leaner margins than this, so it will be interesting to see what both their next poll and Marquette's next poll says.

Marquette was one of the three best pollsters in the final polling of Wisconsin in 2012. It predicted Obama +8, he won by +7, so Marquette was off to the Left by 1 point. Rasmussen, on the other hand, completely missed the call, called a tie, and was therefore off by 7 points to the Right.

To-date, there have now been 9 polls of the Badger state, with 40 individual matchups, of which Hillary has won 37, the GOP has won 2 and there has been 1 mathematical tie.



Florida:

Mason-Dixon (R) poll, released 20.04.2015
625 RV, MoE = +/-4.5, the interviews were held from 14.04 to 18.04.2015

Rubio 49 / Clinton 43, margin = Rubio +6
Bush, J 47 / Clinton 43, margin = Bush, J +4


This is the first Mason-Dixon of this cycle for Florida, so there is no older data with which to compare.

In 2012, the final Mason-Dixon poll of Florida, released 02.11.2012, predicted Romney +6 (Romney 51 / Obama 45). In reality, Obama won by 1, so Mason-Dixon was off by 7 full points to the Right in the Orange-Juice state and had the highest mathematical bias of any of the end pollster for that state in that year.  So, Mason-Dixon's reputation is already severely damaged. However, in a breach with their tradition, M/D did release some internals with this poll.  And in doing so, M-D shows Hillary just barely winning the female vote in Florida, by +4 over Bush and by +8 over Rubio, well under the national margins in the female vote. I consider this to be highly, highly unlikely, especially considering that Florida is a microcosm for the nation in many ways.

In a national atmosphere where Hillary is leading ALL GOP comers by landslide margins, it is unlikely that she is losing in Florida. There have now been 23 polls of Florida and 89 specific-name-to-name matchups, of which Hillary has won 83.

Either way, it will be interesting to see what the NEXT Mason-Dixon poll says.


New Jersey:


Quinnipiac Poll, released 21.04.2015
1,428 RV, MoE = +/-2.6, survey taken from 09.04 to 14.04.2015, so part of the survey is after Hillary and Rubio's announcements. The values in (parentheses) are from the previous Quinnipiac poll for that particular matchup.


Clinton 51 (52) / Christie 36 (39)margin = Clinton +15 (+13)
Clinton 54 (54) / Paul 34 (35),margin = Clinton +20 (+19)Clinton 53 (53) / Bush, J 33 (37),margin = Clinton +20 (+16)Clinton 54 / Rubio 34 , margin = Clinton +20 
Clinton 54 
Walker 32, margin =Clinton +22 
Clinton 56 (56) / 
Huckabee 30 (33), margin = Clinton +26 (+23)
Clinton 58 / 
Cruz 30 , margin = Clinton +28
Clinton is dominating in New Jersey, with margins between +15 over Christie to +28 over Cruz. Six of those seven margins are +20 and above. Yes, New Jersey is part of the BLUE WALL and has gone reliably for the Democratic Party now for 6 cycles in a row, but usually with margins around +15, not +28. If the closest that Chris Christie can get to Hillary in his home state is 15 points behind, how can he compete nationally. George W. Bush (43) made a real play for this state in 2007 and lost it by 7 points.


To-date, there have been 15 polls of New Jersey, with 40 matchups. Hillary has decisively won 39 of them.



New Hampshire



PPP (D), New Hampshire, released 21.04.2015, the surveys were taken from April 9 to April 13, so only part of the survey crowd was interviews AFTER Hillary's entrance into the race. The values in (parentheses) are from the previous PPP (D) for that particular matchup - from 16.01.2014.


Clinton 49 (50) / Paul 40 (37), margin = Clinton +9 (+13)
Clinton 49 / Walker 40, margin = Clinton +9
Clinton 50 Rubio 38, margin = Clinton +12 
Clinton 49 (49) / Bush, J 36 (38), margin = Clinton +13 (+11)
Clinton 51 / Huckabee 38, margin = Clinton +13 
Clinton 51 / Carson 38, margin = Clinton +13 
Clinton 51 / Perry 38, margin =Clinton +13
Clinton 51 (43) / Christie 36 (39), margin = Clinton +15 (+4)
Clinton 52 (51) / Cruz 37 (32), margin = Clinton +15 (+19)
Here we see that Clinton is winning in the "Live free or Die" state by +9 to +15, with 4 of those margins at +13 and seven margins in double digits, also seven margins where Hillary is at 50 or above. Once again, Ted Cruz is at the bottom of the list, but this time, Chris Christie is there with him. Christie is the candidate who has lost the most ground against Hillary in the last year. Rand Paul has actually gained ground.


But if these numbers hold, then New Hampshire would not even be a battleground in 2016.


The last - and only time a Democrat won New Hampshire with over 
+10? LBJ, 1964.



Iowa

So, a poll of Iowa was published late yesterday (21 April 2015) by Gravis Marketing (R), paid for by TownHall.com and the results show pretty much the same that all other pollsters are showing: that Iowa is indeed very, very competitive:

2016 Iowa poll: Bush leads crowded GOP field; Rice beats Clinton head-to-head 43% to 40% - Gravis

1259 RV, MoE = +/-3.0. Gravis (R) declined to list the exact time-frame in which this poll was taken, so that is anyone's guess. I have sent an email to ask them for the time-frame. Hillary was pitted against ten prospective candidates and for the first time, both Condoleeza Rice and Carly Fiorina were in the matchups. Most of these matchups are statistical ties. Values in parentheses are from the previous Gravis poll, from March 2015:

Rice 43 / Clinton 40, margin = Rice +3
Clinton 44 (44) / Paul 43 (39), margin = Clinton +1 (+5)
Clinton 44 (45) / Huckabee 43 (40), margin = Clinton +1 (+5)
Clinton 42 (45) / Christie 39 (35), margin = Clinton +3 (+10)
Clinton 43 (43) / Bush 40 (37), margin = Clinton +3 (+7)
Clinton 45 Rubio 42 , margin = Clinton +3Clinton 44 Walker 40 , margin = Clinton +4Clinton 44 Fiorina 37 , margin = Clinton +7
Clinton 47 Cruz 40 , margin = Clinton +7
Clinton 45 Carson 37 , margin = Clinton +8

In all matchups where we can compare to March, Clinton has lost ground to her GOP counterparts. And in 6 of 10 matchups, it's a statistical tie, which is pretty much what we have been seeing in Iowa the entire time. IN fact, the margins look a lot like the margins from Quinnipiac and Bloomberg and also PPP (D), so we are seeing a lot of consistency, here.



So, those were the numbers for the first week, post-Hillary announcement.

13 April 2015

"Getting Started"


Getting StartedI’m running for president. Everyday Americans need a champion. And I want to be that champion. -Hhttp://hillaryclinton.com/join/
Posted by Hillary Clinton on Sonntag, 12. April 2015






Big thumbs up.


Good luck, Hillary.

12 April 2015

IN and OUT

Pay close attention. This blog-entry has a very specific purpose.

Every time a candidate from any major party publicly declares his or her campaign for the presidency, it will be logged here, by day and time. When that candidate drops out, it will also be logged, and the time-span between will be calculated.

Should a serious third party candidate appear on the scene and announce, then it will be logged here as well. 

So, for long stretches of time, this thread will not do much. But when all is said and done, it can be quite valuable. At the end, I bet a lot of people will be glad that this blog-entry exists.


---------------------------------------------



NO. 1


The 2016 presidential season was truly opened on March 23, 2015 by the first publicly announced candidacy:


Senator Raphael Edward "Ted" Cruz (R-TX).


[​IMG]


His WIKI:

Ted Cruz - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

Senator Cruz announced his candidacy at Liberty University in Virginia at circa 10 AM EDT on 23 March, 2015, 596 days before the 2016 Presidential Election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8th (the latest possible day to hold the election according to our laws) of that year.

By announcing in the way he did, Sen. Cruz departed from two traditions: he did not announce from his home state, and he did not form an "exploratory committee" before announcing. His announcement speech was circa 30 minutes in length and his wife and two children joined him on the stage following the announcement. As far as I can recall, he is also the first candidate to pre-announce his candidacy the evening before on "Twitter".

At present, I do not see a "Ted Cruz for President" website, but assume that it will be available in the next days.

However, here is his website as Senator from Texas:

Ted Cruz U.S. Senator for Texas

Good luck to Senator Cruz and his campaign team.

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NO. 2


Senator Rand Paul (R-KY).

[​IMG]

His Wiki:

Rand Paul - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

Here is his 2016 Campaign-site, which at the moment is tailored for his Senate candidacy:

Rand Paul 2016 U.S. Senate Official Rand Paul campaign site


Whether or not this site will be re-tailored for a presidential bid or an entirely different site shows up for such remains to be seen.

Senator Paul announced his candidacy at the Galt House Hotel in Louisville, Kentucky at 12:52-12:53 PM EDT on 07 April, 2015, 580 days before the 2016 Presidential Election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8th (the latest possible day to hold the election according to our laws) of that year. His announcement comes 16 days after Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) formally announced his candidacy.

Before the announcement, Sen. Paul put out this web-video:







And in a move that sets him off slightly from the rest of the expected GOP crowd, Sen. Paul has also put out this campaign poster:


[​IMG]


A distinction to Sen. Cruz: Sen. Paul is indeed announcing from his home state and already formed an exploratory committee. He is planning a tour of the key early primary states immediately following his announcement.

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NO. 3


Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY):

[​IMG]

Former FLOTUS (1993-2001), Senator from NY (2001-2009), 2008 Presidential candidate and the 67th Secretary of State of the United States of America (2009-2013).


Her WIKI:

Hillary Rodham Clinton - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

Her websites:

Ready For Hillary Clinton for President 2016

Hillary for America Hillary for America


Hillary Clinton announced her candidacy on 12 April, 2015, at circa 3 PM EDT, 575 days before the 2016 Presidential Election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8th (the latest possible day to hold the election according to our laws) of that year.

In contrast to the first two candidates, who held televised rallies, Mrs. Clinton's announcement happened over social media, namely, youtube:







And "Ready for Hillary", a major support organization, tweeted this earlier on April 12th, 2015:

2015-04-012 Ready for Hillary Tweet 1.png


Mrs. Clinton is planning to stump in the important caucus state of Iowa starting tomorrow.

Good luck to Hillary Clinton and her campaign team.

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NO. 4


Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL):


His Wiki:


His website:


Senator Marco Rubio announced his candidacy on 13 April, 2015, at circa 6:15 PM EDT, 574 days before the 2016 Presidential Election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8th (the latest possible day to hold the election according to our laws) of that year. His announcement came just one day after Hillary Clinton's entrance into the race (on the Democratic side).

Sen. Rubio made his announcement at Miami, Florida's "Freedom Tower", often also called the "Ellis Island of the South". At 12 minutes in length, his speech was considerably shorter than either Ted Cruz's or Rand Paul's. Rubio is 43 years old and likely the youngest candidate who will enter the 2016 race on either side. Sen. Rubio will be campaigning on Friday, in Nashua, New Hampshire.

Though this is the public announcement, Sen. Rubio already pre-announced his intentions to his supporters earlier in the day on April 13th:



Senator Rubio's entrance into the 2016 race means that the GOP now has two Latino candidates, both of Cuban heritage, running for President, adding a new historical element to 2016.


Good luck to Senator Rubio and his campaign team.

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NO. 5



Senator Bernie Sanders (I-S-D-VT):


[​IMG] 


Senator Bernie Sanders announced his run for the presidency as a Democrat on 30 April, 2015, at circa 12:00 PM EDT, 558 days before the 2016 Presidential Election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8th (the latest possible day to hold the election according to our laws) of that year.

His WIKI:

Bernie Sanders - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

His campaign website:

Bernie Sanders For President

His website has a date marked on it that does not coincide with today's announcement date:


Bernie Sanders website.png

Perhaps Sen. Sanders is planning a special event for May 25, 2015.

Sen. Sanders is the only self-identified Socialist in the US Congress. As an Independent, he caucuses with the Democrats in the US Senate. He is 73 years old and will be 75 years old on Election day, 2016. Were he to be nominated, he would be the first Jewish Presidential nominee on a ticket ever. Former Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-I-CT) was the first Jewish Vice-Presidential nominee in 2000. He would also be the oldest nominee we have ever had.

I list Bernie Sanders as No. 5-A since the Chafee campaign, despite him openly having said on CNN that he is running, is now saying that it is not official.
Good luck to Senator Sanders and his campaign team. 


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NO. 6



Carly Fiorina (R-CA):


[​IMG]


Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina announced her run for the presidency as a Republican on Monday, 04 May 2015, at circa 07:00 EDT, on ABC's "Good Morning America" with George Stefanopolous, 554 days before the 2016 Presidential Election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8th (the latest possible day to hold the election according to our laws) of that year.

Here is her announcement:

Carly Fiorina Announces Presidential Campaign With a Jab at Hillary Clinton She clearly is not trustworthy - ABC News

Also being reported here:

Carly Fiorina announces presidential bid - CNNPolitics.com

Carson Fiorina announce 2016 presidential bids Fox News

(It should be noted that the FOX article also states that Neurosurgeon Ben Carson is also running, that he has already announced it to a radio station in Ohio, but that the formal announcement will be tomorrow, 05 May, 2015)


Carly Fiorina's WIKI:

Carly Fiorina - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

And her campaign website:

Carly Fiorina for President 2016

Good luck to Mrs. Fiorina and her campaign team.


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NO. 7



Dr. Ben Carson (R-MI):


[​IMG] 



Neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson announced her run for the presidency as a Republican on Monday, 04 May 2015, at circa 11:30 EDT, from the Detroit Music Hall (Michigan), 554 days before the 2016 Presidential Election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8th (the latest possible day to hold the election according to our laws) of that year.

His announcement was recorded in all of the major news outlets:

Ben Carson 2016 announcement Can he cure what ails America - CNNPolitics.com

Ben Carson Announces 2016 Presidential Run - NBC News

Carson Fiorina launch 2016 bids as diversity of GOP field grows Fox News


Dr. Carson's WIKI:

Ben Carson - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia


And his campaign website:

Carson America

with this logo:


Carson campaign logo.png


I think it's only fair to note that to my knowledge, Dr. Ben Carson is the first presidential candidate to have been awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom:

[​IMG]



(Pres. George H. W. Bush (41) was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom by Pres. Barack Obama in 2011 - long after his term as President)

Good luck to Dr. Carson and his campaign team.


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NO. 8



Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR):



[​IMG]

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (R) announced his run for the presidency as a Republican on Tuesday, 05 May 2015, at circa 11:39 EDT, from his hometown of Hope, Arkansas, 553 days before the 2016 Presidential Election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8th (the latest possible day to hold the election according to our laws) of that year.

His announcement was recorded in all of the major news outlets:

Mike Huckabee looks to broaden appeal during White House run - James Hohmann - POLITICO

Election 2016 Mike Huckabee allies aim to raise 60M - CNNPolitics.com

(video at the link)

Mike Huckabee Announces 2016 Presidential Bid - ABC News

Huckabee announces 2016 White House bid with focus on economy and security Fox News

(Video at the link)

Gov. Huckabee's WIKI:

Mike Huckabee - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia


And his campaign website:

Mike Huckabee for President

Both Bill Clinton and Mike Huckabee come from Hope, Arkansas. Bill Clinton campaigned in 1992 with the slogan "A Man from Hope". Former Gov. Huckabee has a similar slogan: "From Hope to Higher Ground".


Huckabee slogan.png

Former Gov. Huckabee was a 2008 GOP presidential candidate who won 8 states in the GOP primaries, including Iowa and chalked up the 2nd highest number of delegates at the RNC.

Good luck to former Gov. Huckabee and his campaign team.



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NO. 9



Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA):


[​IMG]


Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (R) announced his run for the presidency as a Republican on Wednesday, 27 May 2015, at circa 7:00 PM EDT, from the small town of Cabot, Pennsylvania, 531 days before the 2016 Presidential Election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8th (the latest possible day to hold the election according to our laws) of that year.

His announcement was recorded on many outlets:

2016 election Rick Santorum runs for White House again - CNNPolitics.com

Santorum Aims to Take America Back With 2016 White House Run - NBC News

Republican Santorum launches 2016 bid with appeal to middle class Reuters

Santorum launches 2016 campaign with focus on working families Fox News


In his candidacy speech, former Sen. Santorum said that part of his plan includes doing away with the IRS, instituting a flat tax and repealing President Obama's executive orders.


His Wiki:

Rick Santorum - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

His website:

Rick Santorum for President


Rick Santorum was also a presidential candidate in 2012, where he won 11 states and (officially) 178 delegates in the 2012 Republican Primaries.


Good luck for former Sen. Santorum and his campaign team.


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NO. 10



Former Gov. George Pataki (R-NY):


[​IMG]



Former New York Governor George Pataki (R) announced his run for the presidency as a Republican on Thursday, 28 May 2015, in the morning, per a youtube video announcemen,530 days before the 2016 Presidential Election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8th (the latest possible day to hold the election according to our laws) of that year.

Here is the youtube video:




He is campaigning heavily on the record of having been a 3-term a Republican Governor from a deep "blue" state and indeed, among most Republicans, he is considered a moderate "Rockefeller" Republican type.

He is the second candidate to announce per youtube, without the huge fanfare of a public event. The other candidate to do so: Hillary Clinton (D), also from New York.

His announcement was recorded on many outlets:

Former NY Governor Pataki launches 2016 Republican presidential bid Reuters

Former N.Y. Gov. George Pataki Announces 2016 White House Bid - NBC News

George Pataki makes long-shot bid for President - CNNPolitics.com

Video indicates Pataki to run for 2016 GOP presidential nomination Fox News


His Wiki:

George Pataki - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

His website:

George Pataki for President 2016 - People Over Politics

Good luck to former Gov. Pataki and his campaign team.

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NO. 11



Former Gov. Martin O'Malley (D-MD):


[​IMG]
Former MD Gov. Martin O'Malley with his wife, Katie O'Malley

Former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley (D) announced his run for the presidency as a Democrat on Saturday, 30 May, 2015, 10:58 AM EST, at an event in Federal Hill Park, Baltimore, Maryland, 528 days before the 2016 Presidential Election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8th (the latest possible day to hold the election according to our laws) of that year.

His announcement was recorded in all of the major media:

Martin O Malley announces bid for president On Air Videos Fox News

O Malley s long-shot bid gets complicated start - Ben Schreckinger - POLITICO

Gov. Martin O Malley Announces Run for President - ABC News

Martin O Malley 3rd Democrat To Launch White House Bid - NBC News

Martin O Malley Announces 2016 Presidential Run

With tough words for Wall St O Malley launches White House bid Reuters

Martin O Malley announces bid for presidency - Videos - CBS News

His candidacy video:





His WIKI:

Martin O Malley - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

And his website:

Home - Martin O Malley for President


Good luck to former Gov. O'Malley and his campaign team.


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NO. 12



Sen Lindsay Graham (R-SC):


[​IMG]

South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham (R) announced his run for the presidency as a Republican on Monday, 01 June, 2015, 11:14 AM EST, at an event in Central, South Carolina, 526 days before the 2016 Presidential Election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8th (the latest possible day to hold the election according to our laws) of that year.

His announcement was recorded in all of the major media:

Lindsey Graham Says I m Running for President - NBC News

Lindsey Graham presidential bid bets on foreign policy - CNNPolitics.com

Lindsey Graham in announcing White House run gets personal - Katie Glueck - POLITICO

Graham enters 2016 presidential race becoming 9th GOP candidate Fox News

With this front page:


Graham announces his candidacy.png


And also:

Lindsey Graham Jumps Into 2016 Presidential Race Ready to Be Commander-in-Chief on Day One - ABC News

Lindsey Graham launches presidential campaign - The Washington Post


His WIKI:

Lindsey Graham - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia


His campaign website:

Lindsey Graham for President 2016 LindseyGraham.com


Good luck to Sen. Graham and his campaign team.


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NO. 13

Former Gov. Lincoln Chafee (R, then I, now D - RI):

[​IMG]


His Wiki:

Lincoln Chafee - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia


Former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee announced his run for the presidency as a Democrat on 16 April, 2015, at circa 11:00 AM EDT, 571 days before the 2016 Presidential Election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8th (the latest possible day to hold the election according to our laws) of that year, but he then backtracked and said it was not yet official. The official start was 
 Wednesday, 03 June, 2015, 11:57 AM CST, at an event in Dallas, Texas, 524 days before the 2016 Presidential Election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8th (the latest possible day to hold the election according to our laws) of that year.

Just one week after forming an exploratory committee, former Gov. Chafee made his announcement on CNN (video at the link).


Here an excerpt from the CNN link:



Because his political career is somewhat unusual, here is a timeline:

He was a Republican until 2007, including his tenure as the Mayor of Warwick, RI from 1992-1999 and then as Republican Senator from RI from 1999-2007. Chafee was considered the most Liberal Republican in Congress during the Bush 43 administration and the only one to vote AGAINST use of force in Iraq, putting his vote in the Senate to the LEFT of Hillary Clinton's vote, just to be historically very clear about this point. He was also the only Republican Senator to oppose Pres. Bush's nomination of Samuel Alito. He was primaried from the Right in RI in 2006, won the Primary, lost the GE to Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse.

And then he switch his party affiliation to "Independent" and ran as an Independent for the Governorship of RI in 2010 and won. He served as RI's 74th Governor from 2011-2015 and was the first Independent Governor from the smallest state in the Union since 1786-1790. Although he was an Independent, Chafee supported Obama's presidential bid in 2008 and was a co-chair of Obama's re-election campaign in 2012.

And the end of May, 2013, Chafee switched his party affiliation again, from Independent to Democratic.

Chafee is the third Republican high official from the East to switch parties from Republican to Independent or Democratic in the last 15 years:

Jim Jeffords (VT), 2001
Lincoln Chafee (RI), 2007
Arlen Spector (PA), 2009

But there is at least one instance of it going the other way:

Angus King (I-ME), started as a Democrat and then left that party.

I thought that information would be helpful in inderstanding this corner of then Union, where there are more Independent elected officials than in most other places.



Lincoln Chafee Enters Democratic Presidential Field - Bloomberg Politics

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/04/u...democratic-nomination-for-president.html?_r=0

Lincoln Chafee to run for president

This last link indicates an interesting policy idea of his:

Lincoln Chafee Announcing Presidential Campaign Says U.S. Should Adopt Metric System - NationalJournal.com


His WIKI:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lincoln_Chafee



New is his campaign website:

Lincoln Chafee Presidential Campaign 2016



Good luck to former Gov. Chafee and his campaign team


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NO. 14

Former Governor Rick Perry (R-TX):



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Former Texas Governor Rick Perry (R) announced his run for the presidency as a Republican on Thursday, 04 June, 2015, 11:57 AM CST, at an event in Dallas, Texas, 523 days before the 2016 Presidential Election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8th (the latest possible day to hold the election according to our laws) of that year.

His announcement was recorded in all of the major media:

Perry launches 2016 bid for White House Fox News

Rick Perry launches comeback bid for White House - CNNPolitics.com

Rick Perry Announces 2016 Bid a Re-Do From 2012 - ABC News

Election 2016 Rick Perry launches second run for president - CBS News

After oops Rick Perry is ready to try again - The Washington Post

Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry Announces 2016 Presidential Bid - NBC News

Rick Perry launches 2016 presidential campaign

A humbled Rick Perry is asking America for a second chance

Former Governor Rick Perry Presidential Campaign Video C-SPAN.org


His WIKI:

Rick Perry - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

His campaign website:

Perry for President - Tested leadership. Proven results.


Good luck for former Gov. Perry and his campaign team.


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NO. 15

Former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL):



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Former Florida Governor John Ellis "Jeb" Bush (R) announced his run for the presidency as a Republican on Monday, 15 June, 2015, circa 4:10 PM EST, at a rally at Miami-Dade College, Miami, Florida, 512 days before the 2016 Presidential Election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8th (the latest possible day to hold the election according to our laws) of that year.

His announcement was recorded in all of the major media:

Jeb Bush 2016 In announcement speech Jeb says I will run to win - POLITICO

Jeb Bush 2016 Full text of Jeb Bush s presidential announcement - POLITICO

Jeb Bush interrupted by immigration protesters - CNNPolitics.com

Jeb Bush Announces 2016 Presidential Campaign I Will Run To Win - ABC News

Jeb Bush promises optimism consistency in 2016 bid - CBS News

Jeb Bush Invokes Baltimore Protests In Presidential Campaign Kickoff


Here is the CSPAN video of his speech:




Jeb Bush is the son of former President George H. W. Bush (1989-1993) and also the brother of former President George W. Bush (2001-2009) and thus just made history as being the only candidate in our entire history to announce his candidacy as the third member of a "presidential" family. Interesting is to note that neither of the former Presidents Bush were at Jeb's rally in Miami yesterday, perhaps a deliberate strategy on Jeb's part to indicate that he is his own man.

Jeb Bush is considered a top-tier candidate for the Republican nomination and many consider him to be the GOP establishment favorite, expecting a Bush vs. Clinton redux of 1992, this time with Jeb against Hillary. He is now the 11th declared Republican presidential candidate and at least 3 more are expected to announce (Jindal, Kasich and Walker).

His Wiki:

Jeb Bush - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia


His Website:

All in for Jeb Jeb Bush For President

He also has an interesting logo:


[​IMG] 


Good luck to former Gov. Bush and his campaign team.


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NO. 16

Real Estate Mogul Donald Trump (R):


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Real Estate Mogul Donald J. Trump announced his run for the presidency on Tuesday, 16 June, 2015, at 11:22 AM EST, from the Trump Towers in NYC, New York, 511 days before the 2016 Presidential Election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8th (the latest possible day to hold the election according to our laws) of that year. He did not explicitly say that he was running for the nomination as a Republican, but the current assumption is that he will be competing for the Republican nomination. 

His announcement was carried on most media, also on social media.

Donald Trump Announces 2016 Presidential Campaign We Are Going Make our Country Great Again - ABC News

Donald Trump Says He s Running For President - NBC News

Trump announces White House bid joins crowded GOP field Fox News



Donald Trump announcement.jpg


Trump on 2016 I m In America - Daniel Doherty



His Wiki:

Donald Trump - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia


His campaign website:

Let s Make America Great Again Donald J Trump Presidential Exploratory Committee


Good luck to Donald Trump and his campaign team.


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NO. 17

Governor "Bobby" Jindal (R-LA):


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Governor Piyush "Bobby" Jindal (R-LA) announced his run for the presidency as a Republican on Wednesday, 24 June, 2015, at 5:00 PM CST, at an event in Kenner, LA, in his original congressional district in Louisiana, 503 days before the 2016 Presidential Election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8th (the latest possible day to hold the election according to our laws) of that year.

His announcement was carried on most media, also on social media.

This makes Gov. Jindal the 13th declared candidate for the Republican nomination for President in 2016. He is the first serious Indian American presidential candidate.

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal I m Running for President - NBC News

Bobby Jindal just announced his 2016 bid - Business Insider

Declared 2016 GOP candidate Bobby Jindal

Bobby Jindal announces entry into 2016 presidential race - The Washington Post

Now Louisiana Gov. Jindal Is in the GOP Race - ABC News

Louisiana Gov. Jindal announces 2016 White House bid Fox News




His WIKI:

Bobby Jindal - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

His website:

BobbyJindal.com

Good luck to Gov. Jindal and his campaign team.


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NO. 18

Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ):


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Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ) announced his run for the presidency as a Republican on Tuesday, 30 June, 2015, at circa 1:00 PM EST, at an event at Livingston High School, Livingston, New Jersey, 497 days before the 2016 Presidential Election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8th (the latest possible day to hold the election according to our laws) of that year.

This makes Gov. Christie the 14th declared candidate for the Republican nomination for President in 2016.

His announcement was covered in all of the major media and social media as well:

Chris Christie Joins Presidential Race - NBC News

Christie announces 2016 White House bid vows I mean what I say Fox News

Chris Christie launches 2016 presidential bid from New Jersey - CNNPolitics.com

Republican Christie launches 2016 bid promises straight talk Reuters

Chris Christie Announces 2016 Presidential Campaign With Swipes At Obama Hillary Clinton - ABC News

Election 2016 Chris Christie announces presidential campaign - CBS News

Chris Christie goes back home to launch his long-shot 2016 bid - The Washington Post

Governor Chris Christie R-NJ Presidential Video C-SPAN.org
(video at the link)

And although this is the first time I note coverage from outside of the US of a presidential announcement, this one is interesting:

Chris Christie im US-Wahlkampf - Kandidat mit gro er Klappe - Politik - S ddeutsche.de

Gov. Christie's WIKI:

Chris Christie - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

And his campaign website:

Chris Christie for President


Good luck to Gov. Christie and his campaign team.



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NO. 19

Former Senator Jim Webb (D-VA):


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Former Senator Jim Webb (D-VA) announced his run for the presidency as a Democrat on Thursday, 02 July, 2015, with an announcement at his campaign website and in an email to Democratic supporters, 495 days before the 2016 Presidential Election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8th (the latest possible day to hold the election according to our laws) of that year.

This makes Sen. Webb with 5th declared candidate for the Democratic nomination for President in 2016. To the best of my knowledge, he is also the first Democratic candidate for president once who served in a major cabinet post for a Republican President in the past: he was Ronald Reagan's Secretary of the Navy.

His announcement was covered in all of the major media and social media as well:

Former Democratic Senator Webb announces White House campaign Reuters

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/03/us/politics/jim-webb-presidential-campaign.html?_r=1

Jim Webb Announces 2016 Presidential Run - NBC News

Jim Webb announces 2016 Democratic bid - Gabriel Debenedetti - POLITICO

Jim Webb announces 2016 presidential bid - CNNPolitics.com

Democrat Jim Webb joins 2016 White House race Fox News

Jim Webb Announces 2016 Democratic Presidential Bid Challenging Hillary Clinton - ABC News

Jim Webb says he s running for president - CBS News


His WIKI:

Jim Webb - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

And his campaign website:

Jim Webb 2016 Leadership You Can Trust


Good luck to former Sen. Webb and his campaign team.


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NO. 20

Governor Scott Walker (R-WI):


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Governor Scott Walker (R-WI) announced his run for the presidency as a Republican on Monday, 13 July, 2015, at 6:47 PM EST, at an event in Waukesha, Wisconsin, 484 days before the 2016 Presidential Election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8th (the latest possible day to hold the election according to our laws) of that year.

This makes Gov. Walker the 15th declared candidate for the Republican nomination for President in 2016 and the 20th major candidate overall for 2016. Another Midwest Governor, John Kasich (R-OH), is expected to announce on July 21st.

Walker's announcement was covered in all of the major media and social media as well:

Scott Walker officially enters 2016 presidential race - CNNPolitics.com

Walker announces 2016 White House bid vows to fight for America Fox News

Scott Walker Makes It Official I m Running for President - ABC News

Scott Walker s 2016 election promise I know how to fight and win - CBS News

Walker I d Rather Take the Fight to Islamic Terrorists Than Wait for Them to Come to Us - Cortney O Brien

Wisconsin s Scott Walker enters Republican race vowing to fight for America Reuters

Scott Walker Makes 2016 Run Official - NBC News

Scott Walker Announces He s Running For President In 2016

Scott Walker vows to turn back clock on taxes to Reagan era - Washington Times

Scott Walker vows to fight and win with a conservative message for 2016 - The Washington Post

And a video of the Governor's speech:




Gov. Walker is considered a top-tier Republican candidate for President, and GOP nomination polling confirms this.



His WIKI:

Scott Walker politician - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia


And his campaign website:

Scott Walker for America

Which has an interesting logo:


Scott Walker logo.jpg 


Good luck to Gov. Walker and his campaign team.


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NO. 21



Governor John Kasich (R-OH):


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Governor John Kasich (R-OH) announced his run for the presidency as a Republican on Tuesday, 21 July, 2015, at circa 11:48 EST, at an event in Columbus, Ohio, my home-state :D , 476 days before the 2016 Presidential Election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8th (the latest possible day to hold the election according to our laws) of that year.

This makes Gov. Kasich the 16th declared candidate for the Republican nomination for President in 2016 and the 21st major candidate overall for 2016.

His announcement covered in all of the major media and social media as well:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/22/us/politics/john-kasich-election-2016-presidential-race.html

Ohio Gov. John Kasich Announces He s Running for President - NBC News

Ohio Gov. Kasich Is 16th Notable Entry Into GOP Race - ABC News

John Kasich 2016 announcement rounds out field - CNNPolitics.com

Inside the Beltway John Kasich Last but not least and No. 16 on the GOP presidential roster - Washington Times

Ohio Gov. Kasich joins GOP race with message of conservatism compassion - The Washington Post

Gov. Kasich enters GOP White House race touting skills and experience Fox News


He has an interesting logo:


Kasich motto.png 





His WIKI:

John Kasich - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

His campaign website:

Home - John Kasich

Good luck to Gov. Kasich and his campaign team.



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NO. 22



Former Governor Jim Gilmore (R-VA):


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Former Governor Jim Gilmore (R-VA) announced his run for the presidency as a Republican on Wednesday, 29 July, 2015, per official filing as a Republican candidate for President with the FEC , 468 days before the 2016 Presidential Election, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8th (the latest possible day to hold the election according to our laws) of that year.

Usually, a candidate makes a public announcement and then, within days, files with the FEC. Former Gov. Gilmore is doing it the other way around.

His entry into the race was reported here:

Jim Gilmore 2016 Presidential announcement widens GOP field - POLITICO

Ex-Virginia Gov. Gilmore files paperwork for White House bid Fox News

Former Va. Gov. Jim Gilmore Files Paperwork for Presidential Run - NBC News


His bid for the White House is considered by all, without exception, to be the longest of longshots. He has not teams on the ground in any state and has raised no money at all. He has no name recognition whatsoever and is polling 0% in GOP nomination poll. In 2008, he announced a run for the presidency and pulled out one month later.
This now makes two candidates for President from VA, both extreme long-shots, the other candidate being Jim Webb (D). That being said, Gilmore did some substantial things during his tenure as Governor of Virginia from 1998-2002.

Gov. Gilmore's WIKI:

Jim Gilmore - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia


And his campaign website:

Jim Gilmore for America

His campaign logo:


Gilmore presidential logo 2016.png 

Good luck to former Gov. Gilmore and his team, when it is put together.



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