31 December 2015

In-and-Out update: on the eve of 2016

8 candidates who once declared for the presidency have now dropped out of the race: 2 Democrats and 6 Republicans. That leaves us with 15 candidates remaining officially "on the books" at the start of 2016: 3 Democrats and 12 Republicans.

I have been collecting the start and end-data for all of the campaigns all along and have reduced this kind of statistic into a simple table.

First, all 23 declared candidates:


The candidates you see highlighted in light orange have now dropped out. This chart is in chronological order, with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) being the first name on the list (because he was the first to announce) and Prof. Larry Lessig (D-MA) being the last name on the list (because he was the last to announce).  Columns 3/4, 7/8 are probably the most interesting. Column 3 lists the date of the announcement. Column 4 calculates the number of days before (but not including) Election Day 2016 that that candidate declared. Column 7 is the exit-date and column 8 calculates the date duration between columns 3 and 7 (not including the exit date itself). We can see that up until now, of the candidates who have dropped out, former Gov. George Pataki (R-NY) waged the longest campaign, 215 days long, although he was not really ever on the radar screen to begin with.  In 2008, former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R-VA) was also a candidate for president and also completely ignored. He dropped out one month later and the press did not even take notice. So, who knows, maybe he already dropped out and no one took the time to even look.

Now, here is a table only of the candidates who have dropped out:




That table is in chronological order based on column 7 (exit date). I think it's fair to note that of the 8, the only candidate who was an upper tier candidate and perhaps would have had a shot at his party's nomination was Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI), whose fairly early exit from the race came as a surprise to many people.


And here is a table of the 15 candidates still in the running:



So, that's the status of this presidential statistic at this current time, going into 2016.

17 December 2015

2016 polling round-up, 06-31.12.2015: Presidential D vs R matchups

D vs. R matchups: NATIONAL POLLING


Morning Consult (R), released 16.12.2015:
4,038 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Clinton 46 / Trump 41, margin = Clinton +5
Clinton 45 / Carson 39, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 46 / Bush 38, margin = Clinton +8
Clinton 45 / Rubio 36, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 46 / Christie 35, margin = Clinton +11
Clinton 47 / Cruz 36, margin = Clinton +11



ABC / WAPO, released 17.12.2015:
1,002 Adults, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 852 RV, MoE = +/- 4.0

Clinton 50 / Trump 44, margin = Clinton +6


The poll also asked this question:


Compare that with similar questions among GOP voters only. The difference is very large.

FOX News Poll, released 18.12.2015:
1,013 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 43 / Rubio 45, margin = Rubio +2
Clinton 45 / Cruz 45, margin = TIE
Clinton 46 / Carson 44, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 49 / Trump 38, margin = Clinton +11

The shift toward Clinton since the previous FOX poll is pretty dramatic:




Emerson College, released 21.12.2015:
754 RV, MoE = +/-3.5

Clinton 44.5 / Rubio 45.2, margin = Rubio +0.7
Clinton 47.9 Trump 45.6, margin = Clinton +2.3
Clinton 47.3 Cruz 44.6, margin = Clinton +2.7
Clinton 45.8 / Bush 40.7, margin = Clinton +5.1

Clinton 42.7 Rubio 31.5 / Trump 25.8 , margin = Clinton +11.2


PPP (D), released 21.12.2015:
1,267 LV, MoE = +/-2.8

Clinton 43 / Rubio 44, margin = Rubio +1
Clinton 45 / Carson 45, margin = TIE
Clinton 45 / Cruz 43, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 46 / Trump 43, margin = Clinton +3
Clinton 44 / Bush 39, margin = Clinton +5

Sanders 41 / Carson 41, margin = TIE
Sanders 41 / Bush 42, margin = Bush +1
Sanders 41 / Cruz 42, margin = Cruz +1
Sanders 41 / Trump 43, margin = Trump +2
Sanders 39 / Rubio 42, margin = Rubio +3

Clinton 42 Cruz 26 / Trump 23 , margin = Clinton +16
Clinton 41 Rubio 27 / Trump 24 , margin = Clinton +14
Clinton 40 Trump 30 / (Generic Independent) 11 , margin = Clinton +1

Quinnipiac, released 22.12.2015:
1,140 RV, MoE = +/-2.9

Clinton 44 / Cruz 44, margin = TIE
Clinton 44 / Rubio 43, margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 47 / Trump 40, margin = Clinton +7

Sanders 42 / Rubio 45, margin = Rubio +3
Sanders 43 / Cruz 44, margin = Cruz +1
Sanders 51 / Trump 38, margin = Sanders +13

The rumor is being spread that Trump is getting a lot of the DEM vote. Quinnipiac does not confirm these rumors. In fact, it shows Trump doing WORSE in the D vote than a R usually does:




Usually, a candidate ends up getting about 7-9% of the opposition party's vote on election day. 4% is well under that.

CNN/ORC, released 23.12.2015:
927 RV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 46 / Rubio 49, margin = Rubio +3
Clinton 46 / Cruz 48, margin = Cruz +2
Clinton 49 / Trump 47, margin = Clinton +2

Rasmussen Reports, released 28.12.2015:
1,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 37 / Trump 36, margin = Clinton +1





D vs. R matchups: STATE POLLING

Arizona:

Strategies 360 (R), released 17.09.2015:
514 LV, MoE = +/-4.4

Clinton 42 / Trump 44, margin = Trump +2
Clinton 40 / Cruz 50, margin = Cruz +10
Clinton 37 / Rubio 53, margin = Rubio +16


The poll reflects an R+10 electorate (R43 / D33), which is not in-line with reality at all.


Iowa:

PPP (D), released 17.12.2015:
1,426 LV, MoE = +/-2.6

Clinton 41 / Rubio 48, margin = Rubio +7
Clinton 44 / Cruz 47, margin = Cruz +3
Clinton 45 / Carson 45, margin = TIE
Clinton 45 / Trump 43, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 45 / Fiorina 42, margin = Clinton +3
Clinton 46 / Bush 41, margin = Clinton +5


Sanders 42 / Rubio 44, margin = Rubio +2
Sanders 43 / Carson 42, margin = Sanders +1
Sanders 44 / Cruz 43, margin = Sanders +1
Sanders 46 / Trump 43, margin = Sanders +3
Sanders 44 / Bush 40, margin = Sanders +4
Sanders 45 / Fiorina 39, margin = Sanders +6

-and-

Clinton 39 / Rubio 33 / Trump 23, margin = Clinton +6





2016 polling round-up, 06-31.12.2015: GOP Nomination

GOP NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING


Morning Consult (R), released 16.12.2015: (pre-debate, see also post-debate poll from 18.12.2015)
4,038 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,530 RRV, MoE = not listed

Trump 40
Carson 10
----------
Cruz 9
Bush 7
Rubio 7
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
Huckabee 3
Paul 3
Kasich 2

Margin: Trump +30

IPSOS/Reuters, released 16.12.2015:
730 RRV, MoE = +/-4.1



Margin =  Trump +21 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +22 (RRV only), Trump +19 (IRV, R-leaning only)

Morning Consult (R), released 18.12.2015 (post GOP debate):
921 RRV, MoE = +/-3.0

Trump 36
Carson 12
Cruz 11
----------
Rubio 9
Bush  7
Paul 3
Christie 2
Fiorina 2
Apparently, neither Kasich nor Huckabee were not even listed on the poll

Margin: Trump +24

PPP (D), released 18.12.2015:
532 RLV, MoE = +/-4.3

Trump 34
Cruz 18
Rubio 13
----------
Bush  7
Carson 6
Christie 5
Fiorina 4
Huckabee 4
Paul 2
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +16

Hypothetical 4, 3 and 2-way races:

Trump 40
Cruz 22
Rubio 20
Carson 10
Margin: Trump +18

Trump 40
Cruz 21
Rubio 19
Bush 12
Margin: Trump +19

Trump 42
Cruz 26
Rubio 20
Margin: Trump +16

Cruz 45
Rubio 24
Bush 19
Margin: Cruz +21

Trump 58 / Bush 34, Trump +24
Trump 57 / Carson 34, Trump +23
Trump 54 / Rubio 38, Trump +16
Trump 45 / Cruz 44, Trump +1
Cruz 58 / Carson 26, Cruz +32
Cruz 48 / Rubio 34, Cruz +14
Rubio 46 / Carson 39, Rubio +7


Here are a number of fascinating internals from the PPP (D) poll:



-and-



"Agrabah" is a mythical town: it is where Aladdin came from....

FOX News Poll, released 18.12.2015:
1,013 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 402 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 39
Cruz 18
Rubio 11
----------
Carson 9
Bush 3
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
Paul 3
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +21


Hypothetical 4, 3 and 2-way races:

Trump 41
Cruz 25
Rubio 17
Carson 12
Margin: Trump +16

Trump 41
Cruz 25
Rubio 17
Carson 12
Margin: Trump +16

This internal is interesting, if not once again pretty disturbing:


Emerson College, released 21.12.2015:
754 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 415 RLV, MoE = +/-4.8

Trump 35.9
Cruz 20.7
Rubio 13.4
----------
Carson 7.1
Christie 6.0
Bush 5.9
Fiorina 4.6
Kasich 3.9
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +15.2


Quinnipiac, released 22.12.2015:
1,140 RV, MoE = +/-2.9
of them, 508 RRV, MoE = +/-4.4

Trump 28
Cruz 24
Rubio 12
Carson 10
----------
Christie 6
Bush 4
Fiorina 2
Paul 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +4

CNN/ORC, released 23.12.2015:
927 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 438 RRV

Trump 39
Cruz 18
Rubio 10
Carson 10
----------
Christie 5
Paul 4
Bush 3
Huckabee 2
Kasich 2
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +21


IPSOS/Reuters, released 23.12.2015:
1,593 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, 626 RRV, MoE = +/-4.5



Margin =  Trump +20 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +26 (RRV only), Trump +9 (IRV, R-leaning only)

The Economist / YouGov, released 23.12.2015:
2,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 473 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Trump 35
Cruz 19
Rubio 14
----------
Carson 7
Paul 6
Bush 5
Christie 3
Kasich 3
Fiorina 3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +16

IPSOS/Reuters, released 31.12.2015:
2,005 Adults, MoE = +/-2.5
of them, 722 RRV, MoE = +/-4.2



Margin =  Trump +19 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +27 (RRV only), Trump +13 (IRV, R-leaning only)


GOP NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Florida:

St. Pete Polls, released 16.12.2015:
2,694 RRV, MoE = +/-1.9

Trump 35.6
Cruz 21.9
Rubio 16.8
----------
Bush 9.3
Carson 6.3
Christie 3.0
Kasich 1.6
Fiorina 1.3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +12.7

Opinon Savvy / FOX 13 Tampa Bay / Florida Times Union, released 17.12.2015:
555 RLV, MoE = +/-4.1

Trump 29.7
Cruz 20.4
Rubio 15.0
Bush 12.5
----------
Carson 7.7
Christie 6.1
Fiorina 2.7
Paul 2.6
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +9.3

In a hypothetical 5-way race:

Trump 31.6
Cruz 21.4
Rubio 20.9
Bush 13.9
Carson 8.2

Margin: Trump +10.2

So, the demographics of this poll show how poorly the GOP fares among Black voters, but 8% of the respondents (in a very heavily Latino state) were indeed in this GOP survey:


That's not even close to the actual racial breakdown of the state, but it is a far better statistic than for the state of Georgia.

Also, this question was asked:



72.5% of FL GOP voters want to ban muslims from entering the USA. Wow. That statistic is very consistent with the statistic from Georgia, from the same pollster.

Georgia:

Opinion Savvy / Fox 5 Atlanta, released 17.12.2015:
538 RLV, MoE = +/-4.2

Trump 34.6
Cruz 15.8
Rubio 12.0
----------
Carson 6.4
Bush 6.0
Christie 5.6
Fiorina 5.1
Kasich 2.3
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +18.8

The poll also includes bogus statistics for minorities. I say bogus because there are not enough in the subgroup to make any kind of realistic statistic in any universe that we know. Look:


There are exactly 5 out of 538 respondents who are black, and 6 others are Latino. The exact statistic within this subgroup is therefore: 0.93% black, 1.11% Latino. The MoEs for groups this unbelievably small must be +/-15 to +/-20, so trying to make any percentual statistic out of a group this small is just plain old criminal.

Also, this question was asked within the poll:



70.5% of GA GOP voters want to ban muslims from entering the USA. Wow.

Iowa:


CBS News / YouGov, released 18.12.2015:
1,469 RV, MoE = +/-5.0
of them, 602 RLV (likely caucus goers)


Margin: Cruz +9


Gravis (R), released 23.12.2015:
1,027 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 440 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0




Margin: TIE (Trump/Cruz)

Nevada:

Gravis (R), released 30.12.2015:
909 LV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 406 RLV, MoE = +/-5.0



Margin: Trump +12

New Hampshire:

Franklin Pierce /Boston Herald, released 17.12.2015:
403 RLV, MoE = +/-4.7

Trump 26.0
Cruz 12.4
Rubio 12.4
Christie 10.8
----------
Bush 9.8
Kasich 7.5
Fiorina 6,1
Carson 4.8
Paul 2.9
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +13.6

CBS News / YouGov, released 18.12.2015:
1,469 RV, MoE = +/-5.0
of them, 519 RLV


Margin: Trump +18


ARG, released 23.12.2015:
600 RLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Trump 21
Rubio 15
Kasich 13
Christie 12
Rubio 10
----------
Bush 7
Carson 6
Fiorina 5
Paul 4
all others 0

Margin: Trump +6




South Carolina:

Opinion Savvy / Augusta Chronicle, released 18.12.2015:
536 RLV, MoE = +/-4.2

Trump 28.3
Cruz 21.1
Rubio 11.6
----------
Bush 9.6
Carson 9.5
Christie 5.5
Fiorina 4.6
Paul 2.6
Huckabee 2.1
Graham 1.9
all others 1 or less

Margin: Trump +7.2

In the demographics of the survey, according to Savvy, Whites are 97.6% of the GOP electorate in South Carolina.

CBS News / YouGov, released 18.12.2015:
1,469 RV, MoE = +/-5.0
of them, 852 RLV



Margin: Trump +15

2016 polling round-up, 06-31.12.2015: DEM Nomination

DEM NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING


Morning Consult (R), released 16.12.2015:
4,038 RV, MoE = +/-2.0
of them, 1,790 DRV, MoE = not listed

Clinton 52
Sanders 27
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +25

Monmouth University, released 16.12.2015:
1,006 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 357 DRV, MoE = +/-5.1

Clinton 59
Sanders 26
O'Malley 4

Margin: Clinton +33

IPSOS/Reuters, released 16.12.2015:
765 DRV, MoE = +/-4.0



Margin = Clinton +18 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +29 (DRV only), Sanders +14 (IRV, D-leaning only)

ABC / WAPO, released 17.12.2015:
1,002 Adults, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 377 DRV, MoE = +/- ???

Clinton 59
Sanders 28
O'Malley 5

Margin: Clinton +31


PPP (D), released 18.12.2015:
525 DLV, MoE = +/-4.3

Clinton 56
Sanders 28
O'Malley 9

Margin: Clinton +28


FOX News Poll, released 18.12.2015:
1,013 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 390 DLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Clinton 56
Sanders 34
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +22

Emerson College, released 21.12.2015:
754 RV, MoE = +/-3.5
of them, 332 DLV, MoE = +/-5.3

Clinton 65.4
Sanders 25.6
O'Malley 2.4

Margin: Clinton +39.8

Quinnipiac, released 22.12.2015:
1,140 RV, MoE = +/-2.9
of them, 462 DRV, MoE = +/-4.6

Clinton 61
Sanders 30
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +31

Rasmussen Reports, released 22.12.2015:
546 DLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 46
Sanders 30
O'Malley 7

Margin: Clinton +16


CNN/ORC, released 23.12.2015:
927 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 414 DRV, MoE = +/-5.0

Clinton 50
Sanders 34
O'Malley 73

Margin: Clinton +16


IPSOS/Reuters, released 23.12.2015:
1,593 Adults, MoE = +/-2.8
of them, 626 RRV, MoE = +/-4.5



Margin = Clinton +19 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +27 (DRV only), Clinton +2 (IRV, D-leaning only)


The Economist / YouGov, released 23.12.2015:
2,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.1
of them, 565 DLV, MoE = +/-5.0

Clinton 53
Sanders 39
O'Malley 2

Margin: Clinton +14


IPSOS/Reuters, released 31.12.2015:
2,005 Adults, MoE = +/-2.5
of them, 825 DRV, MoE = +/-3.9



Margin = Clinton +17 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +25 (DRV only), Clinton +1 (IRV, D-leaning only)


DEM NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Iowa:


CBS News / YouGov, released 18.12.2015:
1,469 RV, MoE = +/-5.0
of them, 602 DLV (likely caucus goers)


Margin: Clinton +5


Gravis (R), released 23.12.2015:
1,027 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 418 DLV, MoE = +/-5.0


Margin: Clinton +18

Nevada:

Gravis (R), released 30.12.2015:
909 LV, MoE = +/-3.0
of them 326 DLV, MoE = +/-5.0



Margin: Clinton +23

New Hampshire:

Franklin Pierce /Boston Herald, released 17.12.2015:
410 DLV, MoE = +/-4.7


Sanders 48.1
Clinton 45.9
O'Malley 1.9

Margin: Sanders +2.2



CBS News / YouGov, released 18.12.2015:
1,469 RV, MoE = +/-5.0
of them, 459 DLV


Margin: Sanders +14


ARG, released 23.12.2015:
600 DLV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 46
Sanders 43
O'Malley 3

Margin: Clinton +3

South Carolina:


CBS News / YouGov, released 18.12.2015:
1,469 RV, MoE = +/-5.0
of them, 852 DLV



Margin: Clinton +36
xxxx

15 December 2015

Polling wrap-up, 01-15.12.2015

As I indicated in the last polling wrap up, the month of December is probably going to feel like a three week month, because I bet that close to Christmas, very little polling will be published. The first two weeks of December have been interesting because some states that are almost never polled at this stage in the game for a Prez cycle were polled (exciting!) and the numbers are also showing a verifiable shift with the GOP polling regarding 2nd place.

So, here we go:

GOP NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING


Quinnipiac, released 02.12.2015: Trump +10 (screenshots of internals at the link below, Rubio in 2nd)
IPSOS/Reuters, released 03.12.2015 Trump +16 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +19 (RRV only), Trump +10 (IRV, R-leaning only)
CNN/ORC, released 04.12.2015: Trump +20 (Cruz in 2nd)
IBD/TIPP, released 06.12.2015: Trump +12 (Carson in 2nd)
Suffolk / USA Today, released 08.12.2015: Trump +11 (Cruz in 2nd)

Week 1 average: Trump +13.8

Morning Consult (R), released 09.12.2015: Trump +29 (and over the 40-mark, Carson in 2nd)
Zogby Analytics, released 09.12.2015: Trump +24.5 (Carson in 2nd)
CBS/NYT, released 10.12.2015: Trump +19 (Cruz in 2nd)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI), released 10.12.2015: Trump +8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IPSOS/REUTERS, released 10.12.2015Trump +18 (RRV + IRV, R-leaning), Trump +25 (RRV only), Trump +8 (IRV, R-leaning only)
Gravis (R) / OANN, released 10.12.2015: Trump +26  (and over the 40-mark, Cruz in 2nd)
The Economist / YouGov, released 11.12.2015: Trump +17 (Rubio in 2nd)
NBC / WSJ, released 13.12.2015: Trump +5 (Cruz in 2nd)
ABC / WAPO, released 14.12.2015: Trump +23 (Cruz in 2nd)
Monmouth University, released 14.12.2015: Trump +27 (abd over the 40 mark, Cruz in2nd)

As expected, there was considerably more national polling released in week two, just in advance of the GOP debate on 15.12.2015, in Las Vegas, NV.

Week 2 average (excluding PRRI): Trump +21.7 (the largest aggregate that Trump has held thus far)


GOP NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Florida:
St. Leo University, released 09.12.2015: Trump +15.5 (Carson in 2nd)

Georgia:
Landmark (R) / Rosetta Stone, released 10.12.2015: Trump 26.9 (over the 40 mark, Cruz in 2nd)
(some screenshots from this poll at the link poll)

Indiana:
Bellwether Consulting (R), released 11.12.2015: Trump +9 (Rubio in 2nd)
(screenshot and analysis at the link below)

Iowa:
Monmouth University, released 07.12.2015: Cruz +5
(screenshot and analysis at the link below)
CNN/ORC, released 07.12.2015: Trump +13
Des Moines Register / Bloomberg / Selzer, released 12.12.2015: Cruz +10
(Screenshot at the link below)
Fox News Poll, released 13.12.2015: Cruz +2
Quinnipiac, released 14.12.2015: Trump +1
(Screenshot at the link below)
Loras College, released 14.12.2015: Cruz +7.3
(Screenshot at the link below)
PPP (D), released 15.12.2015: Trump +3

Since all Iowa polls came in from 07-14.12.2015, Week 2 average: Cruz +0.3 (statistical tie)

New Hampshire:
PPP (D), released 03.12.2015: Trump +14
(other hypothetical 4, 3 and 2-way matchups at the link below, also screenshots)
CNN/UNH/WMUR, released  08.12.2015: Trump +18
Adrian Gray Consulting (R), released 10.12.2015: Trump +1
MassInc/ 90.9 WBUR, released 11.12.2015: Trump +15 (over Christie)

Average: Trump +12

New Jersey:
Rutgers-Eagleton, released 10.12.2015: Trump +16 (over Christie)


North Carolina:
PPP (D), released 08.12.2015: Trump +17 (over Cruz)
(other hypothetical 4, 3 and 2-way matchups at the link below, also screenshots)

South Carolina:
FOX News Poll, released 09.12.2015: Trump +20
(analysis and screenshots at the link below)
Winthrop University, released 10.12.2015: Trump +8

Average: Trump +14

Tennessee:
Vanderbilt University, released 04.12.2015: Trump +4
(screenshots and short analysis at the link below)


In national GOP polling, Trump is absolutely romping. In fact, his standing among Republican registered voters IMPROVED after his statements about denying Muslims entry into the United States. Trump wins all 16 national polls, hands down.

In state polling, Trump is winning everywhere except in Iowa. Note that Indiana and Tenessee were polled, both kind of rarities.

The real news from these two weeks in polling has less to do with Trump and more to do with Carson's precipitous fall from 2nd place, to be replaced by either Rubio or Cruz. Also, Chris Christie has taken 2nd in 2 polls.  What we are definitely seeing is a top-tier of four candidates (Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Carson) who are all in double digits most everywhere,  and then a second tier of candidates, usually starting at 5% and going downward fast (Bush, Paul, Fiorina, sometimes Kasich and Huckabee). The rest are not really on the radar screen at all. In most all polling, Graham, Santorum, Pataki and Gilmore are not even at 1% and sometimes, they don't even get one single vote in a survey group, meaning absolute ZERO.

TOPLINES, survey group sizes, some internals etc. for all the Republican races can all be found at this LINK.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


DEM NOMINATION: NATIONAL POLLING


Quinnipiac, released 02.12.2015: Clinton +30
IPSOS/Reuters, released 03.12.2015Clinton +13 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +15 (DRV only), Clinton +8 (IRV, D-leaning only)
CNN/ORC, released 04.12.2015: Clinton +28
IBD/TIPP, released 06.12.2015: Clinton +18
Suffolk / USA Today, released 08.12.2015: Clinton +27.5

Average, week 1: Clinton +23.7

Morning Consult (R), released 09.12.2015: Clinton +29
CBS/NYT, released 10.12.2015: Clinton +20
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI), released 10.12.2015: Clinton +21
---------------------------------------------------------------------
IPSOS/REUTERS, released 10.12.2015Clinton +18 (DRV +IRV, D-leaning), Clinton +26 (DRV only), Sanders +6 (IRV, D-leaning only)
Gravis (R) / OANN, released 10.12.2015: Clinton +32
The Economist / YouGov, released 11.12.2015: Clinton +33
NBC / WSJ, released 14.12.2015: Clinton +19

Average, week 2: Clinton +26.5

The Democratic race is likely over. It will be Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders by a landslide.


DEM NOMINATION: STATE POLLING

Florida:
St. Leo University, released 09.12.2015: Clinton +25.2

Iowa:
CNN/ORC, released 07.12.2015: Clinton +18
Monmouth University, released 08.12.2015: Clinton +22
(analysis, screenshots at the link below)
Fox News Poll, released 13.12.2015: Clinton +14
Des Moines Register / Bloomberg / Selzer, released 13.12.2015: Clinton +9
(analysis, screenshots at the link below)
PPP (D), released 15.12.2015: Clinton +18
Quinnipiac, released 15.12.2015: Clinton +11
Loras College, released 15.12.2015: Clinton +21.6

Average: Clinton +16.2

New Hampshire:
PPP (D), released 03.12.2015: Clinton +2 (statistical tie)
CNN/UNH/WMUR, released  08.12.2015: Sanders +10

Average: Sanders +4

New Jersey:
Rutgers-Eagleton, released 10.12.2015: Clinton +41


North Carolina:
PPP (D), released 08.12.2015: Clinton +39

South Carolina:
FOX News Poll, released 09.12.2015: Clinton +44
(analysis, screenshots at the link below)

Tennessee:

Vanderbilt University, released 04.12.2015: Clinton +20

Clinton is winning everywhere but in New Hampshire, and she is winning big.

TOPLINES, survey group sizes, some internals etc. for all the Democratic races can all be found at this LINK.


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D vs. R matchups: NATIONAL POLLING


Quinnipiac, released 02.12.2015: 8 matchups, 4 of them Hillary vs. GOP, 4 of them Sanders vs. the same four GOPers (Rubio, Carson, Cruz, Trump) and for the first time since Quinnipiac has been doing large prez matchups, the Ds win all 8 matchups, from +1 to +10, reflecting a shift away from the GOP from between 3 and 18 points, Heavy analysis of various voter subgroups in the link below, including, most importantly, the Latino vote, with a historical comparison to 2012 and Romney's polling in late 2011 as well.

CNN/ORC, released 04.12.2015: 5 Hillary vs. GOP matchups, she loses 2, wins three, from margins Carson +3 to Clinton +3. The largest shift over the previous CNN poll is away from Trump and toward Clinton.

MSNBC/Telemundo/Marist, released 08.12.2015: 5 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she wins all five, from +1 to +11. Trump does the worst. The poll also released statistics for the Latino vote and the numbers are worth a look at.

Suffolk / USA Today, released 08.12.2015: 4 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she loses 1, wins 3, with margins ranging from Rubio +3.3 to Clinton +3.

Morning Consult (R), released 09.12.2015: 6 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, where she loses 3, ties in 2 and wins 1. But the real news is the shift in the demographics of the survey (screenshots at the link below) that probably lead to these kind of results.

Gravis (R) / OANN, released 10.12.2015: 7 Hillary vs. GOP matchups, she wins all 6 and ties in 1 (Rubio), from an extreme-right wing pollster with ties to the birther scene. Just two months ago, according to Gravis (R) / OANN, Trump was beating Hillary by 9 points.

NBC / WSJ, released 14.12.2015: 4 Clinton vs. GOP matchups, she loses 2, wins 2, from Rubio +3 to Clinton +10 (over Trump)

ABC / WAPO, released 14.12.2015: 1 matchup released thus far (I suspect that more are on the way), Hillary +6 over Trump.

The main story from these 8 polls is that Trump is sinking fast in national polling against Hillary, while Rubio tends to do the best, even better than Carson. Cruz also loses to Hillary, but this is not new news, he has lost virtually every national matchup to her up to this date, although the losing margins in his case have also increased.  On the whole, this has been the best two-week polling period for Hillary Clinton since June, 2015.


D vs. R matchups: STATE POLLING

Florida:
St. Leo University, released 09.12.2015: 12 matchups, Clinton vs. GOP, 6 of them two-way matchups, 6 of them 3-way matchups. Clinton wins all of them, and by landslide margins. In every single 3-way matchup, Trump, as a possible Independent candidate, supplants the GOP candidate as the 2nd party. 1,007 adults in the poll, there is also an RV subgroup, but the MoE is not listed. This is the most generous poll for Hillary in the Sunshine state in a long, long time.

New Hampshire:
PPP (D), released 07.12.2015: 12 matchups, 6 of them Hillary vs. GOP, 6 of them Sanders vs. GOP. The DEMS win all 12 matchups, with margins all between +1 and +10, Sanders' winning margins in this state are larger than Hillary's. Cruz and Trump do the worst of them all.

North Carolina:
PPP (D), released 08.12.2015: 12 matchups, 6 of them Hillary vs. GOP, 6 of them Sanders vs. GOP.  The GOP wins all but 2 matchups, with margins between Carson +9 and Trump or Fiorina +2. The other two matchups are ties: Clinton vs. Bush, Sanders vs. Fiorina.

There has been relatively little state polling in the last two weeks, with the bulk of polling attention fixated on the national polling, presumably because of the two debates this week (15.12 - Republicans, 19.12 - Democrats).

TOPLINES, survey group sizes, some internals etc. for all the D-vs-R matchup races can all be found at this LINK.

01 December 2015

2016 polling round-up, 01-15.12.2015: FAV/UNFAV, APPROVE/DISAPPROVE, major issues, etc...


Presidential Approval / Disapproval - NATIONAL


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Presidential Approval / Disapproval - STATE


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Other POLS: Approval / Disapproval



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ISSUES:



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2016 polling round-up, 01-15.12.2015: Senatorial / Gubernatorial

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2016 polling round-up, 01-15.12.2015: Presidential D vs. R matchups

D vs. R matchups: NATIONAL POLLING


Quinnipiac, released 02.12.2015:
1,453 RV, MoE = +/-2.6
Number in parentheses = values from the previous Qpiac poll, released 04.11.2015.

Clinton 45 (41) / Rubio 44 (46) , margin = Clinton +1 (Rubio +5)
Clinton 46 (40) / Carson 43 (50) , margin = Clinton +3 (Carson +10)
Clinton 47 (43) / Cruz 42 (46) , margin = Clinton +5 (Cruz +3)
Clinton 47 (46) / Trump 41 (43) , margin = Clinton +6 (+3)

Sanders 44 (41) / Rubio 43 (47) , margin = Sanders +1 (Rubio +6)
Sanders 47 (39) / Carson 41 (51) , margin = Sanders +6 (Carson +12)
Sanders 49 (46) / Trump 41 (44) , margin = Sanders +8 (+2)
Sanders 49 (44) / Cruz 39 (45) , margin = Sanders +10 (Cruz +1)

The Clinton values reflect a margin-shift to the Democratic party between +3 (vs. Trump) to +13 (vs. Carson) and the Sanders values reflect a margin-shift to the Democratic party between +6 (Rubio) and +18 (Carson). In both sets of matchups, Rubio comes the closest, in a statistical tie with both Clinton and Sanders. Cruz and Trump do the worst against the Democrats. In terms of margin-shift, however, Carson has fallen the most.

Let's take a look at the DEM vote, the Women's vote, the White vote, the AA vote and the Latino vote, according to Quinnipiac:




-and-




So, the margin values:

Clinton vs. Carson: +82 (DEMS), +16 (Women), -14 (White),  +70 (AA) +59 (Latinos)
Sanders vs. Carson: +78 (DEMS), +18 (Women), -10 (White),  +61 (AA) +59 (Latinos)

Clinton vs. Rubio: +79 (DEMS), +16 (Women), -18 (White),  +73 (AA) +51 (Latinos)
Sanders vs. Rubio: +74 (DEMS), +14 (Women), -14 (White),  +68 (AA) +50 (Latinos)

Clinton vs. Trump: +84 (DEMS), +23 (Women), -12 (White),  +80 (AA) +63 (Latinos)
Sanders vs. Trump: +78 (DEMS), +20 (Women), -6 (White),  +69 (AA) +67 (Latinos)

Clinton vs. Cruz: +85 (DEMS), +21 (Women), -12 (White),  +75 (AA) +55 (Latinos)
Sanders vs. Cruz: +83 (DEMS), +23 (Women), -7 (White),  +78 (AA) +56 (Latinos)

As benchmark to 2012: (2012 exit polls)

Obama vs. Romney: +85 (DEMS), +11 (Women), -20 (White),  +87 (AA) +44 (Latinos)

So, both Clinton and Sanders are doing better among women than Obama did in the actual election, they are also doing less worse among white voters as a whole as Obama did (I suspect that the white women's vote plays a large role in this), they are doing less well in the AA vote but considerably better in the Latino vote, with the most crushing margins against Trump.

According to this survey, Trump only gets 11% of the Latino vote against Sanders and only 13% against Hillary. Mitt Romney got 27% of the Latino vote in 2012 and still lost New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado, together worth more electoral votes than Ohio these days.

Better yet, let's also compare this to the best corresponding Quinnipiac poll,  from late November, 2011:

Obama 45 / Romney 44, Obama +1 (statistical tie)
Obama 49 / Gingrich 40, Obama +9
Obama 50 / Cain 37, Obama +13

Let's look at those five voter categories from this Qpiac poll from 4 years ago:



Obama vs. Romney: +75 (DEMS), +11 (Women), -14 (White),  +83 (AA) +23 (Latinos)
Obama vs. Gingrich: +81 (DEMS), +17 (Women), -5 (White),  +83 (AA) +25 (Latinos)
Obama vs. Cain: +84 (DEMS), +23 (Women), TIE (White),  +83 (AA) +30 (Latinos)

(I only screenshotted the Obama vs. Romney internals, you can see the rest at the link)

From that poll - November 22, 2011, in an amazing show of consistency, Obama had a +83 in the AA vote over all three Republican contenders, including Cain. His margin in the Latino vote, a landslide margin between +23 and +30, was still way under the +44 he won among Latinos on election night, but his Latino margin from end of November 2011 is considerably smaller than the Latino margins we are seeing for Clinton and Sanders over the GOP this time around.  The most disturbing numbers for the GOP in this poll from December 2, 2015 should be the Latino numbers. Take a look at the Latino numbers above for Clinton and Sanders: the SMALLEST margin over the Republicans starts at +50 and goes as high as +67!  Obama was nowhere even close to these numbers at the end of 2011.


And finally, the demographics of this poll, from December, 2015:
:



D+1. Possible, but D+5 to D+7 is far more likely. So, the Clinton and Sanders numbers are likely somewhat deflated.

As compared to the demographics from the Quinnipiac Poll from 11/22/2011:



D+7, which is what the electorate was on election night, 2012.  So, with a D+7 electorate, Obama trumped in the Latino vote by +23 to +30. And now, in an electorate that Qpiac calculates as being far less D-friendly, Clinton and Sanders are sweeping in the Latino vote by +50 to +69.  It is highly likely that the Democratic nominee will win the Latino vote in 2016 by around +60, which means 79/19/2 at the end of the day.  We've never seen numbers like this for the Latino vote ever before. This is indeed a phenomenon.


CNN/ORC, released 04.12.2015:
930 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
Values in parentheses are from the previous CNN/ORC poll.

Clinton 47 (47) / Carson 50 (48) , margin = Carson +3 (+1)
Clinton 48  / Rubio 49 , margin = Rubio +1

Clinton 49 / Bush 47  , margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 49 (50) / Trump 46 (45) , margin = Clinton +3 (+5)
Clinton 50 / Cruz 47  , margin = Clinton +3 

MSNBC/Telemundo/Marist, released 08.12.2015:
2,360 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Clinton 48 / Carson 47, margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 48 / Rubio 45, margin = Clinton +3
Clinton 49 / Bush 45, margin = Clinton +4
Clinton 51 / Cruz 44, margin = Clinton +7
Clinton 52 / Trump 41, margin = Clinton +11


And in the Latino vote, according to the poll:
264 LRV, MoE = +/-6.0

Clinton 57 / Rubio 38, margin = Clinton +19
Clinton 61 / Carson 35, margin = Clinton +26
Clinton 61 / Bush 35, margin = Clinton +26
Clinton 61 / Cruz 34, margin = Clinton +27
Clinton 69 / Trump 27, margin = Clinton +42


I consider this to be a very important internal in the poll:




Suffolk / USA Today, released 08.12.2015:
1,000 LV, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 44.5 / Rubio 47.8, margin = Rubio +3.3
Clinton 46.0 / Carson 45.1, margin = Clinton +0.9
Clinton 46.9 / Cruz 45.1, margin = Clinton +1.8
Clinton 47.5 / Trump 44.2, margin = Clinton +3.3


Morning Consult (R), released 09.12.2015:
2,047 RV, MoE = +/-2.0

Clinton 40  / Carson 45, margin = Carson +5
Clinton 40  / Trump 45, margin = Trump +5
Clinton 40  / Rubio 41, margin = Rubio +1
Clinton 41 / Bush 41, margin = TIE
Clinton 40 / Christie 40, margin = TIE
Clinton 42 / Cruz 40, margin = Clinton +2

The partisan make-up explains some of the numbers:




This poll shows an R+3 partisan identification. Possible, but not likely. Even more unlikely is that for a party that is male dominant (Republican), that more R-female voters are in this survey than D-Female voters. Also, and unsurprisingly, since this is coming from a Republican firm, the ideological breakdown is far too generous to Conservatives, also a tick to generous to Liberals, but far too stingy on Moderates, who certainly will comprise more than 24% of the electorate in 2016.



Gravis (R) / OANN, released 10.12.2015:
1,995 RV, MoE = +/-2.2

The results are at the main national page, which is changed every time new results come in, and so, here are the screenshots from these matchups, + the polling demographics:


-and-


NBC / WSJ, released 14.12.2015:
1,000 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0
of them, 849 RV, MoE = +/-3.36 (+/-3.4)

Clinton 45 / Rubio 48, margin = Rubio +3
Clinton 46 / Carson 47, margin = Carson +1
Clinton 48 / Cruz 45, margin = Clinton +3
Clinton 50 / Trump 40, margin = Clinton +10


ABC / WAPO, released 14.12.2015:
851 RV, MoE = +/-4.0

Clinton 50 / Trump 44, margin = Clinton +6


D vs. R matchups: STATE POLLING

Florida:

St. Leo University, released 09.12.2015:
1,007 Adults, MoE = +/-3.0

Clinton 48.5 / Rubio 37.8, margin = Clinton +10.7
Clinton 51.1 / Carson 38.2, margin = Clinton +12.9
Clinton 50.7 / Trump 37.2, margin = Clinton +13.5
Clinton 49.1 / Bush 35.3, margin = Clinton +13.8
Clinton 51.7 / Cruz 35.8, margin = Clinton +15.9
Clinton 51.3 / Fiorina 31.9, margin = Clinton +19.4

And in hypothetical three-way matchups:

Clinton 43.3 / Trump 29.5 / Bush 19.6 , margin = Clinton +13.8
Clinton 44.8 / Trump 29.6 / Fiorina 14.9 , margin = Clinton +15.2
Clinton 43.3 / Trump 25.9 / Rubio 21.8 , margin = Clinton +17.4
Clinton 44.0 / Trump 25.7 / Carson 20.1 , margin = Clinton +18.3
Clinton 45.4 / Trump 26.1 / Cruz 19.9 , margin = Clinton +19.3

New Hampshire:

PPP (D), released 07.12.2015:
990 LV, MoE = +/-3.1

Clinton 44 / Rubio 43, margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 45 / Fiorina 44, margin = Clinton +1
Clinton 43 / Bush 41, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 45 / Carson 43, margin = Clinton +2
Clinton 47 / Trump 41, margin = Clinton +6
Clinton 47 / Cruz 39, margin = Clinton +8

Sanders 45 / Rubio 41, margin = Sanders +4
Sanders 46 / Carson 41, margin = Sanders +5
Sanders 48 / Fiorina 40, margin = Sanders +8
Sanders 47 / Bush 38, margin = Sanders +9
Sanders 49 / Trump 40, margin = Sanders +9
Sanders 48 / Cruz 38, margin = Sanders +10

The PPP poll also measured these things:


North Carolina:

PPP (D), released 08.12.2015:
1,214 LV, MoE = +/-2.8
Numbers in parentheses = the previous PPP (D) poll from this state.

of them, 555 DLV, MoE = +/-4.2

Clinton 41 (43) / Carson 47 (49), margin = Carson +6 (+6)
Clinton 43 (45) / Cruz 47 (46), margin = Cruz +4 (+1)
Clinton 43 (42) / Trump 47 (48), margin = Trump +4 (+6)
Clinton 42 (42) / Rubio 46 (48), margin = Rubio +4 (+6)
Clinton 42 (43) / Fiorina 44 (45), margin = Fiorina +2 (+2)
Clinton 43 (46) / Bush 43 (43), margin = TIE (Clinton +3)


Sanders 37 (37) / Carson 46 (48), margin = Carson +9 (+11)
Sanders 39 Rubio 44, margin = Rubio +5
Sanders 39 (40) / Bush 42 (46), margin = Bush +3 (+6)
Sanders 42 (41) / Cruz 44 (45), margin = Cruz +2 (+4)
Sanders 44 (41) / Trump 46 (48), margin = Trump +2 (+7)
Sanders 40 / Fiorina 40, margin = TIE

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