28 November 2013

November 27, 2013: a day at a glance

Occasionally, I simply take screenshots of the front pages of many websites that represent:

a.) the so-called "mainstream-media".
b.) Right-leaning media
c.) Left-leaning media

I do this for a number of reasons, the most important of which is to quickly see what each news outlet tends to prioritize. And so, on a "normal" news day, one day before Thanksgiving, but a day when a number of people take the day off to get ready for the Holiday and therefore might be more apt to also catch the news, I thought it would be good just to get an overview.

Secondly, I do it because I tend to get my information from many sources, ranging from the most Right-Wing to the most Left-Wing. Perhaps I do this because I am of the opinion that no one news source will ever be able to get out all the news, and different news outlets tend to have a definite slant, which is unhealthy for a citizen when he only listens to one source. I even go every day to FreeRepublic to see what is being publicized.

So, the purpose of this thread is in no way to criticize any news outlet. I am simply going to publish the screenshots of the front pages, encourage you to look at all of them, and have you make your own judgements. 

The screenshots are being published in random order: I uploaded them all to photobucket and am linking them simply in the order that photobucket is spitting them out :)

Please feel free to comment on any title or format or picture that evokes a strong response from you.

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26 November 2013

Triple-Play, probable "clean-sweep" in Virginia 2013





The Virginia Board of Elections has declared Mark Herring (D) the winner of the extremely close Attorney General race from November 5, 2013, which means that, assuming a recount does not overturn the race, the Democratic Party had a clean-sweep in 2013 GE. The state elections board decision (a bipartisan board) was unanimous.


Here the still "inofficial" tallies, from the VA SOS website. In a couple of months, this link will probably be defunct, when the race is moved to the archives, so for this reason, a screenshot of the race as well:



The margins:

Gov: Terry McAuliffe (D), +56,435 votes, a +2.52% margin.
Lt. Gov: Ralph Northam (D), +232,898 votes, +10.58% margin
AG: Mark Herring (D), +165 votes, +0.007% margin.

Republican Mark Obenshain has 10 days to decided whether to apply for (and pay for) a recount, under Virginia law.

From the WAPO link:

"Obenshain did not immediately call for a recount, but he has set up a transition team, and his campaign issued a statement Monday noting that there have been four statewide elections across the country since 2000 with margins within 300 votes — three of which were reversed by recounts."

Some STATS:

1.) This is the first time in 40 years that the same party as the President's party captured the Gubernatorial mansion in Virginia, breaking a 36 year old paradigm.

2.) Terry McAuliffe's lean +2.52% win is the third leanest win in the VA Gubernatorial since 1953. You can see the calculations for those 16 election cycles HERE.

3.) This is one of maybe two times where the same party won the Gubernatorial and the Lt. Gubernatorial in VA, but the gubernatorial margin was leaner. I am researching this right now.

4.) This also looks like the only time where more votes were cast for AG than for Lt.Governor - but I am researching that as well.

5.) Voter participation was higher than predicted and in terms of raw numbers for the Virginia Gubernatorial cycle, broke the previous raw vote records.

6.) Polling predicted a McAuliffe win, but the end-polling average was 5 points higher than the actual result. What happened? Well, the topline average was just right, but 3% of the voters statewide who were indicating in polling that they would vote for Sarvis (L) changed their minds and shifted their vote for Cuccinelli (R), which moved the bottom-line up and reduced McAuliffe's winning margin. Speaking of Sarvis, his statistic is the best showing for a third party candidate in VA since 1965. Unfortunately, for about another year, we will not know exactly for sure what the margin is - it is likely to be changed again, which means it is likely to go up. Between election night 2012 and the final canvasses, Obama's margin in Virginia increased by 1.2 points. Wait and see.

5.) The county electoral map of the McAuliffe win from November 5th, 2013 is almost identical to the county electoral map of Obama's win in the GE of 2012. The exit polling shows most all of the same values as well, which means that the so-called "Obama coalition", sometimes also called the "Coalition of the ascendent", held, and that in an off year. Black voters were 20% of the electorate, just as they were in Virginia in the 2012 GE. As soon as the final canvasses have been submitted to the congressional archives, I will do a county map compare, but the election of 2013 statistically proves without a shadow of a doubt that the growth in NOVA has shifted VA from being a traditionally "RED" state to being a true battleground state.

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Obama won this traditionally GOP Southern state twice. McAuliffe is a close personal friend of the Clintons. With McAuliffe in the Governor's mansion in VA, Hillary's chances of retaining the Old Dominion for the Democratic party just rose, just as Jeb Bush (R-FL) helped his brother win Florida in 2000 and in 2004.

Should the AG results change again, then I will report them.


23 November 2013

ODS alert: Facebook group founders threatens to kill Obama

There is a new group in Facebook that calls itself:

[B]Christian American Patriots Militia[/B].

Here is the link:

https://www.facebook.com/groups/417199228403274/?fref=ts

Here is a screenshot of the opening graphic of the group:



Right now, that group has 1,404 members, I suspect that it will grown. Here is a screenshot of some of the members:



The founder of the group, Everest Wilhelmsen, can be found here in FB:

https://www.facebook.com/everest.wilhelmsen

This is an entry of his from November 19th, the day of the "Million Man March" (Ha!!) on Washington (warning: this is vulgar stuff):



This is being reported all over the place:

SPCOOL

(video at that link, from Chris Matthews HARDBALL on MSNBC)

Southern Poverty Law Center

Hatriots Revolution

America Blog

JMG


I don't think I need to explain any of that. These nuts are just plain old batshit crazy. But even a small group of crazies can be very, very dangerous.  I would hope very much that true Tea Party supporters would condemn this kind of stuff. I sent the guy an email of FB and gave him a piece of my mind.


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This video from 2010 gives some insight into the militia mentality:


Looking to the future...

To my friends and readers:

I am professionally very busy these days, living as a free-lance independent contractor of sorts, and so I am returning to my own blog to post things that are of interest to me, mostly things political.

You will also notice that I have changed the nickname associated with this blog from "Bonncaruso" to "Statistikhengst" (Statistics Stud) - just a friendly little joke...

This blog is now open for comments, and as long as those comments are respectful and salient, I will keep it open for such. If however, crazies start doing flybys, I will move again to moderation. I am hoping that we are all adults and know how to deal with each other as such.

To my many contacts from a former political forum: know that you are welcome here at my blog!

16 November 2013

2016 GE: Hillary Clinton vs. GOP Field, Part III



This is a continuation of the first Hillary vs. GOP blog posting from March 17, 2013:

http://rosenthalswelt.blogspot.de/2013/03/clinton-vs-gop-field-2016-ge-part-i.html


and here is Part II.


Back in March, 14 states had been polled. As of August 6th, it was 21 states. As of November 15th, 23 states have been polled, there has been extensive national polling and also one specialty poll (Latino Decisions).

The nitty gritty:


Since the beginning of 2013, there have now been 83 polls:


-57 state polls in 22 states (the California poll is FAV/UNFAV only)

-25 national polls
-1 specialty poll

From all of those polls, there have been 209 Hillary vs. (GOP) match-ups.


Hillary Clinton has won 170 of those 209 matchups (81.34%)

GOP candidates have won 34 of those 209 matchups (16.75%)
There have been 9 ties (4.34%)

Here is an exact chart, by state, with the numbers from above broken down:


State No. of polls No. of Matchups Clinton wins GOP wins Ties
National 25 51 50 1 0
AK 2 9 3 6 0
CA 1 0 0 0 0
CO 3 6 3 3 0
FL 5 10 10 0 0
GA 2 8 7 0 1
IA 4 9 8 0 1
KS 1 2 0 2 0
KY 2 4 3 0 1
LA 2 3 4 2 2
ME 1 4 4 0 0
MI 2 6 6 0 0
MN 1 2 2 0 0
MT 2 4 0 3 1
NH 4 10 10 0 0
NY 1 1 1 0 0
NC 2 6 5 1 0
OH 2 7 6 0 1
PA 3 8 8 0 0
TX 3 12 5 7 0
VA 9 21 20 0 1
WV 1 5 0 5 0
WI 3 13 12 0 1
WY 1 5 0 5 0
Latino 1 3 3 0 0
TOTAL state polls 58 158 120 34 9
TOTAL state and national 83 209 170 35 9

All of the poll values are in one EXCEL document, which you can read HERE.

The following pollsters have polled Hillary vs. GOP matchups thus far in 2013:

Quinnipiac
Rasmussen
NBC (Princeton)
PPP (D)
Monmouth
Marist / McClatchy
Gallup
Bloomberg
YouGov
CNN / ORC
ABC / WAPO
The Field Poll
Gravis (R)
WMUR / UNH
Harper (R)
Purple Strategies
Marquette University Poll
Latino Decisions

Thus far, in 2013, PPP (D) has been the most prolific pollster, but Quinnipiac has also put out it's fair share of polls as well.

Here is a map of those states that have been polled, colored by the winner of the majority of the match-ups. In the case of Colorado, it is actually a tie, but the margins lean more to the GOP than toward Clinton, so I have colored that state light RED:



What to make of all of this?

Well, it is still very early, but massive warning signs for the GOP are there on two separate fronts, and they have been there all year:

1.) In states that are usually considered Battleground states, Hillary Clinton is still consistently and comfortably ahead: PA, NH, VA, WI, FL and OH. Go to the Excel-data link to see the margins for yourself. Especially prominent is VA, which has now been polled 9 times, making for 21 matchups, and Hillary has won 20 of them, the 21st is a tie. If those figures hold over the next three years, then those states will not even be competive. I am not making any comparison between pollsters - yet - nor I am I even looking to their historical track record. There are polls from 18 different pollsters thus far in 2013, and they are all telling the same story: Hillary Clinton is demonstrably and measurably ahead of the GOP field.

2.) Looking at the GOP, the story remains the same: Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) comes the closest to Clinton in virtually every state poll where his name is in the mix. Mathematically, he is by far the most competitive potential candidate to go against Hillary in the GE. The problem is the huge disconnect between this statistic and the fact that Christie is not polling well among the GOP electorate that he would need to win the primaries and get the nomination. In other words, the things that make him attractive to independent voters in a race against Clinton are the things he may need to shed-off in order to throw enough red-meat to the ultra-conservative base of the GOP in order to secure the nomination to begin with. Mitt Romney (self-deportation, 47%) had this very same problem. 

GOP candidates like Rand Paul or Ted Cruz have exactly the opposite problem: they will be favored by the extreme Right-Wing of their party, but exactly the things that could get them nominated would be poison-pills for them in a GE.



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There are lots of good side-notes in the second report, from August.

Since then, a poll of West Virginia has come in, showing the GOP ahead of Hillary, although against Cruz, it would be a single point race. Conversely, a poll from Maine has come in, showing Hillary leading most of the GOP at Obama levels from 2008, but trouncing Cruz by 27 points, a margin reminiscent of LBJ from 1964. Again, Christ Christie is the GOP candidate who comes closest to Hillary in this state.

For me, this is an important data point, considering that Bill Clinton easily won West Virginia in both 1992 and 1996, but since George W. Bush, Jr. flipped this state in 2000, it has gone deeper and deeper "red" with each successive presidential cycle. This tells me that while Hillary Clinton is probably the most polled potential presidential candidate ever in an off year directly following a presidential election, and her FAV/UNFAV numbers are the best of any politico out there, there is no guarantee that she will be able to take the so-called "Clinton 6" states, which you can read about here, in a blog-entry called ELECTORAL COLUMNS. However, she is already doing better in Virginia and Florida and Ohio now that Bill ever did. So, it looks to me like a combination of the "Clinton 6" and the "Obama 3" may come into play (all explained in the electoral columns link).

Right now, remember that the DEMS have not gone under 243 EV since 1992 (according to elector allotment based on the 2010 census), with VA, FL, OH, NH and IA already in the mix, right now, already in 2013, were the election to be held next week, I could already call an electoral lock for the former First Lady. Right now, she is already well over 270 EV.

In conclusion, I have been studying the historical Eisenhower landslide of 1952 in great detail. Most do not perhaps know this, but the draft movement for Ike began already in 1950. In fact, both major parties were vying for him to be their nominee. To this date, it still may well be the largest and most universal draft movement for a candidate in our Union's history. But I am already seeing strong signs of a similar draft movement for Hillary Clinton, already in 2013. One could get into a long and involved debate as to whether this is a good or bad thing, but the fact is that it is happening all over the place, and not just on the internet. Hillary is already making all the traditional moves that a candidate in waiting makes. There are even PACs turning down million dollar sums until she announces. Just as Barack Obama's election as our nation's first black president was history making, 2016 could prove to be just as historical a year as 2008 was.