06 August 2013

2016 GE: Hillary vs. the GOP field, Part II

This is a continuation of the first Hillary vs. GOP blog posting from March 17, 2013:


Back in March, 14 states had been polled. As of August 6th, 21 states have been polled, there has been extensive national polling and also one specialty poll (Latino Decisions).

The nitty gritty:

Since the beginning of 2013, there have now been 61 polls:

-40 state polls in 21 states
-20 national polls
-1 specialty poll

From all of those polls, there have been 140 Hillary vs. (GOP) match-ups.

Hillary Clinton has won 113 of those 140 matchups (80.71%)
GOP candidates have won 22 of those 140 matchups (15.71%)
There have been 5 ties (3.58%)

Here is an exact chart, by state, with the numbers from above broken down:

State No. of polls No. of Matchups Clinton wins GOP wins Ties
National 20 (19) 38 38 0 0
AK 2 9 3 6 0
CA 1 (FAV only) 0 0 0 0
CO 2 4 2 2 0
FL 4 9 9 0 0
GA 1 3 3 0 0
IA 4 9 8 0 1
KS 1 2 0 2 0
KY 2 4 3 0 1
LA 1 3 2 0 1
MI 2 6 6 0 0
MN 1 2 2 0 0
MT 2 4 0 3 1
NH 2 4 4 0 0
NY 1 1 1 0 0
NC 1 2 2 0 0
OH 1 2 1 0 1
PA 3 8 8 0 0
TX 2 7 3 4 0
VA 5 12 12 0 0
WI 1 3 3 0 0
WY 1 5 0 5 0
Latino 1 3 3 0 0
TOTAL: 61 140 113 22 5

All of the poll values are in one EXCEL document, which you can read HERE.


What to make of all of this?

Well, it is still very early, but massive warning signs for the GOP are there on two separate fronts:

1.) In states that are usually considered Battleground states, Hillary Clinton is consistently and comfortably ahead: PA, NH, VA, WI, FL - in specific. It looks closer in OH, but there has only been one poll and only 2 matchups. Similar story in CO. Especially prominent is VA, which has now been polled 5 times, making for 12 matchups, and Hillary has won all of them. If those figures hold over the next three years, then those states will not even be competive. 

2.) Looking at the GOP, the story is always the same: Chris Christie comes the closest to Clinton in virtually every state. Statistically, he is by far the most competitive potential candidate to go against Hillary. The problem is the huge disconnect between this statistic and the fact that Christie is not polling well among the GOP electorate that he would need to win the primaries and get the nomination. In other words, the things that make him attractive to independent voters in a race against Clinton are the things he may need to shed in order to throw enough red-meat to the ultra-conservative base of the GOP in order to secure the nomination to begin with. Mitt Romney (self-deportation, 47%) had this very same problem.


Some interesting side notes:

The PPP (D) poll of Wyoming is the first presidential poll in this state since March, 2008. Of course, it shows the GOP field dominating in this state -  that is to be expected, but even so, in a state that is usually a +40 GOP state, the GOP is up on Hillary here by between +24 and +28. That is still a massive landslide win, but it is also the margin range by which the GOP won WY in 2008, when Obama won the national election by +7.26%. That should be food for thought.

Alaska and Montana are also two very good examples of states to look at:

Alaska has just been polled more in the last 6 months at the presidential level than in all of 2012. In the first PPP (D) poll, she was essentially tied to Marco Rubio but tromping Jeb Bush. This time around, she is losing to Rubio and Bush, but tromping Sarah Palin. That, however, is a non-sequitor, as Palin is very, very unlikely to become the GOP nominee.  However, it is the GOP margins that should be cause for concern: the GOP is ahead of Clinton by between +1 and +8 in a state that used to be a +25 to +30 GOP state. This may not be an anomaly at all: in 2012, whilst 46 states swung red, 6 states still swung blue (DC is considered a "state" for these statistical purposes), and AK was one of them.  It is not all too likely that Clinton will win Alaska, but this single digit margins should be a cause for concern among GOP statisticians.

Likewise, in Montana, we see the GOP ahead by between +5 and +9 points, depending on the candidate.  Here, Rubio does the best of them all, and Christie is relatively weak. This is again strong evidence that Christie is likely considered a "RINO" among Conservative Republicans, and Montana tends to be a very conservative state. However, with Schweitzer on the DEM ticket, this state could easily flip.

Georgia is worth noting, for Clinton was winning there in February and I suspect that another PPP poll for the presidential matchups in the Peach State will come out tomorrow or Thursday.

One more point: IOWA: Hillary's fav/unfav ratings in this state are astronomically high. This has wide reaching implications as Iowa is the first caucus state in the nation. And overall, in every state, Hillary has a more than healthy lead over any possible DEM contender. On the average, she is about +50 over the rest of the DEM field.


Facit: the polling numbers from March are only being confirmed even more strongly going into August. If these numbers hold, then Hillary can easily go over 400 EV in the Electoral College. The race, both at the Primary and the GE level, is Hillary's to lose.