06 November 2012

Statistikhengst's FINAL Electoral Landscape (No.8): Obama 303 / Romney 235


Statistikhengst's Electoral Landscape No. 8
FINAL EDITION

Obama vs. Romney

November 5-6, 2012

President Obama projected to win Re-Election

End-Projection, with tossups:



Obama 281 / Romney 206 / Tossups 51 / Margin: Obama +75



End-Projection, without tossups:



Obama 303 / Romney 235 / Margin: Obama +68

These graphics are courtesy of RealClearPolitics, where you can make your own electoral maps.



This is my eighth and FINAL major electoral landscape prediction-output for the 2012 election. Links to the other reports are in the appendix.

For those who know my analyses, they know that while I am a Democrat, my electoral analyses are non-partisan and brutally fair. I simply let the numbers speak for themselves. This is a long analysis, full of data; you need to read it all to get the full picture. 

The raw-data (including links to each poll) for all 1,958 Presidential polls collected and analyzed in 2012 are here in one EXCEL DOCUMENT:   11/05/2012 Presidential Polling Data - FINAL III. This data includes all polls that came in up to 17:00 EST on 11/06/2012. (Recommendation: right-click, open in a new tab or window and go to the states that interest you as you read this report).

Of those 1,958 polls, 225 new state polls came in between EC Landscape 7 and Lanscape 8!

Both of the above EV maps are 100% numbers-driven. There is not one bit of personal feeling in any of that.

What I have done all year long is to record every poll I could find (verified also by RCP, TPM, HuffPo, Hedgehog Report, ElectionProjection, USELECTIONATLAS, 270towin - and others), record them (number of respondents, MoE, toplines, margins), and make averages. For non-competitive states, the rule has always been a two-week average. For competitive states, the rule was also a two-week average, until the last month of the campaign, and then I moved to one-week averages for those states. For the national polling, it was always a one-week average.

I created a BATTLEGROUND ZONE, which meant that any state that had a polling average of +5 of less for a candidate was in the battlegrounds, and any of those states with an average of +2 or less was a statistical tossup. All polls were included, no matter how partisan they have been considered to be by one side or the other. In 2008, I used this very same method and came up with averages that were eerily close to the actual results.

So, for the purposes of organized the averages in a way that that makes sense for the eyes to see, I created an 

EVERYTHING TABLE

the legend for which you can read in any of the former Electoral Landscape reports, like this one. (Recommend: right-click, open in a new tab or window)

Until now, I presented the EVERYTHING TABLE (which really does include all the important numbers you need to know in order to get a good picture of all of this) in order of the partisan rankings from 2008, starting with the No. 1 Obama state (highest margin percentage) and ending with the No. 1 McCain state (highest margin percentage). That table then looked like an "hourglass" when you watched the descending order of margins for Obama and then the ascending order of margins for McCain. Here are now TWO versions of the EVERYTHING TABLE.

Remember, the EVERYTHING TABLE is based on the raw data from all the polls: 11/05/2012 Presidential Polling Data - FINAL III

Here is the EVERYTHING TABLE (old form), as presented up till now:

Rank '08 State EV 2012 Margin - '08 2008 Final PA Diff. 1 2012 Current PA Diff. Over 2008 PA Diff. 2 ('08 Margin)
1 DC 3 85,93 69,00 16,93 80,00 11,00 5,93
2 HI 4 45,26 36,00 9,26 27,00 -9,00 18,26
3 VT 3 37,01 27,00 10,01 37,00 10,00 0,01
4 RI 4 27,81 18,10 9,71 21,00 2,90 6,81
5 NY 29 (31) 26,86 29,00 -2,14 25,20 -3,80 1,66
6 MA 11 (12) 25,81 21,33 4,48 19,00 -2,33 6,81
7 MD 10 25,44 17,30 8,14 21,67 4,37 3,77
8 IL 20 (21) 25,11 24,90 0,21 17,50 -7,40 7,61
9 DE 3 24,98 20,70 4,28 --- --- ---
10 CA 55 24,03 24,00 0,03 15,80 -8,20 8,23
11 CT 7 22,37 21,33 1,04 11,50 -9,83 10,87
12 ME 4 17,32 17,15 0,17 11,03 -6,12 6,29
13 WA 12 (11) 17,08 14,60 2,48 13,74 -0,86 3,34
14 MI 17 (16) 16,44 14,44 2,00 4,79 -9,65 11,65
15 OR 7 16,35 15,57 0,78 6,00 -9,57 10,35
16 NJ 15 (14) 15,53 16,00 -0,47 11,00 -5,00 4,53
17 NM 5 15,13 9,26 5,87 8,00 -1,26 7,13
18 WI 10 13,90 11,34 2,56 4,63 -6,71 9,27
19 NV 6 (5) 12,49 6,83 5,66 4,67 -2,16 7,82
20 PA 20 (21) 10,31 7,30 3,01 4,20 -3,10 6,11
21 MN 10 10,24 12,00 -1,76 6,25 -5,75 3,99
22 NH 4 9,61 10,43 -0,82 2,50 -7,93 7,11
23 IA 6 (7) 9,53 12,75 -3,22 2,14 -10,61 7,39
24 CO 9 8,95 6,62 2,33 1,87 -4,75 7,08
-- USA 538 7,26 7,54 -0,28 1,22 -6,32 6,04
25 VA 13 6,30 4,93 1,37 0,77 -4,16 5,53
26 OH 18 (20) 4,58 2,30 2,28 3,24 0,94 1,34
27 FL 29 (27) 2,81 1,79 1,02 0,61 2,40 2,20
11-A NE-02* 1* 1,21 4,00 -2,79 5,00 1,00 6,21
28 IN 11 1,03 1,18 -0,15 11,20 10,02 12,23
29 NC 15 0,33 0,62 -0,29 2,40 3,02 2,73









Rank '08 State EV 2012 Margin - '08 2008 Final PA Diff. 1 2012 Current PA Diff. Over 2008 PA Diff. 2 ('08 Margin)
22 MO 10 (11) 0,13 0,46 -0,33 10,12 9,66 -9,99
21 MT 3 2,38 1,64 0,74 8,68 7,04 -6,30
20 GA 16 (15) 5,20 3,85 1,35 8,25 4,40 -3,05
19 SD 3 8,41 7,50 0,91 12,00 4,50 -3,59
18 AZ 11 (10) 8,48 4,43 4,05 7,67 3,24 0,81
17 ND 3 8,65 1,34 7,31 17,50 16,16 -8,85
16 SC 8 8,98 12,55 -3,57 6,00 -6,55 2,98
15 TX 38 (34) 11,76 13,00 -1,24 17,50 4,50 -5,74
14 WV 5 13,09 7,66 5,43 14,00 6,34 -0,91
13 MS 6 13,17 10,50 2,67 --- --- ---
12 KS 6 14,92 17,00 -2,08 19,80 2,80 -4,88
11 NE* 5 14,93 19,00 -4,07 17,25 -1,75 -2,32
10 TN 11 15,06 14,00 1,06 18,00 4,00 -2,94
9 KY 8 16,22 12,40 3,82 14,00 1,60 2,22
8 LA 8 (9) 18,63 10,43 8,20 14,07 3,64 4,56
7 AR 6 27,00 10,75 16,25 27,00 16,25 0,00
6 AK 3 21,54 14,58 6,96 --- ---- ---
5 AL 9 21,58 19,33 2,25 15,00 -4,33 6,58
4 ID 4 25,30 23,00 2,30 36,00 13,00 -10,70
3 UT 6 (5) 28,02 24,00 4,02 46,33 22,33 -18,31
2 OK 7 31,29 30,15 1,14 25,90 -4,25 5,39
1 WY 3 32,24 23,00 9,24 --- --- ---


Here is the new form of the everything table, where I have now RE-ORDERED the table based on the current margin averages for all the states, still in "hourglass form" from the highest margin average for Obama to the highest margin average for Romney:

Rank '08 State EV 2012 Margin - '08 2008 Final PA Diff. 1
2012 Current PA Diff. Over 2008 PA Diff. 2 ('08 Margin) Proj. Rank '12
1 DC 3 85,93 69,00 16,93
80,00 11,00 5,93 1
3 VT 3 37,01 27,00 10,01
37,00 10,00 0,01 2
2 HI 4 45,26 36,00 9,26
27,00 -9,00 18,26 3
5 NY 29 (31) 26,86 29,00 -2,14
25,20 -3,80 1,66 4
7 MD 10 25,44 17,30 8,14
21,67 4,37 3,77 5
4 RI 4 27,81 18,10 9,71
21,00 2,90 6,81 6
6 MA 11 (12) 25,81 21,33 4,48
19,00 -2,33 6,81 7
8 IL 20 (21) 25,11 24,90 0,21
17,50 -7,40 7,61 8
9 DE 3 24,98 20,70 4,28
17,00 --- --- 9
10 CA 55 24,03 24,00 0,03
15,80 -8,20 8,23 10
13 WA 12 (11) 17,08 14,60 2,48
13,74 -0,86 3,34 11
11 CT 7 22,37 21,33 1,04
11,50 -9,83 10,87 12
12 ME 4 17,32 17,15 0,17
11,03 -6,12 6,29 13
16 NJ 14 15,53 16,00 -0,47
11,00 -5,00 4,53 14
17 NM 5 15,13 9,26 5,87
8,00 -1,26 7,13 15
21 MN 10 10,24 12,00 -1,76
6,25 -5,75 3,99 16
15 OR 7 16,35 15,57 0,78
6,00 -9,57 10,35 17
14 MI 17 (16) 16,44 14,44 2,00
4,79 -9,65 11,65 18
19 NV 6 (5) 12,49 6,83 5,66
4,67 -2,16 7,82 19
18 WI 10 13,90 11,34 2,56
4,63 -6,71 9,27 20
20 PA 20 (21) 10,31 7,30 3,01
4,20 -3,10 6,11 21
26 OH 18 (20) 4,58 2,30 2,28
3,24 0,94 1,34 22
22 NH 4 9,61 10,43 -0,82
2,50 -7,93 7,11 23
23 IA 6 (7) 9,53 12,75 -3,22
2,14 -10,61 7,39 24
24 CO 9 8,95 6,62 2,33
1,87 -4,75 7,08 25
25 VA 13 6,30 4,93 1,37
0,77 -4,16 5,53 26












-- USA 538 7,26 7,54 -0,28
1,22 -6,32 6,04 13,86












Rank '08 State EV 2012 Margin - '08 2008 Final PA Diff. 1
2012 Current PA Diff. Over 2008 PA Diff. 2 ('08 Margin)

27 FL 29 (27) 2,81 1,79 1,02
0,61 2,40 2,20 25
29 NC 15 0,33 0,62 -0,29
2,40 3,02 2,73 24
16 SC 8 8,98 12,55 -3,57
6,00 -6,55 2,98 23
18 AZ 11 (10) 8,48 4,43 4,05
7,67 3,24 0,81 22
20 GA 16 (15) 5,20 3,85 1,35
8,25 4,40 -3,05 21
21 MT 3 2,38 1,64 0,74
8,68 7,04 -6,30 20
22 MO 10 (11) 0,13 0,46 -0,33
10,12 9,66 -9,99 19
28 IN 11 1,03 1,18 -0,15
11,20 10,02 12,23 18
19 SD 3 8,41 7,50 0,91
12,00 4,50 -3,59 17
14 WV 5 13,09 7,66 5,43
14,00 6,34 -0,91 16
9 KY 8 16,22 12,40 3,82
14,00 1,60 2,22 15
8 LA 8 (9) 18,63 10,43 8,20
14,07 3,64 4,56 14
13 MS 6 13,17 10,50 2,67
15,00 --- --- 13
5 AL 9 21,58 19,33 2,25
15,00 -4,33 6,58 12
11 NE* 5 14,93 19,00 -4,07
17,25 -1,75 -2,32 11
17 ND 3 8,65 1,34 7,31
17,50 16,16 -8,85 10
15 TX 38 (34) 11,76 13,00 -1,24
17,50 4,50 -5,74 9
10 TN 11 15,06 14,00 1,06
18,00 4,00 -2,94 8
12 KS 6 14,92 17,00 -2,08
19,80 2,80 -4,88 7
6 AK 3 21,54 14,58 6,96
22,00 ---- --- 6
2 OK 7 31,29 30,15 1,14
25,90 -4,25 5,39 5
7 AR 6 27,00 10,75 16,25
27,00 16,25 0,00 4
4 ID 4 25,30 23,00 2,30
36,00 13,00 -10,70 3
1 WY 3 32,24 23,00 9,24
40,00 --- --- 2
3 UT 6 (5) 28,02 24,00 4,02
46,33 22,33 -18,31 1



The two maps above are entirely based on this table, and the column to look at is "2012 Current PA". You will notice that four states have margins in GREEN (Delaware, Mississippi, Alaska and Wyoming). Those states did not receive even one poll for 2012, so I made a very good estimated guess about those four states, based on their relationship to their upper and lower neighbors in the 2008 partisan rankings and also how those two-neighbors have been performing thus far in 2012. For instance, in Delaware, the only Obama state never polled, Obama's +24.98% winning margin from 2008 was just shy of his 2008 win in Illinois and somewhat above his 2008 win in California. This time around, Illinois and California have a similar relationship to each other as in 2008, so I have estimated a +17.00 for Obama in Joe Biden's home-state, which is again between Illinois and California, but closer to the margin for Illinois. Ditto for Mississippi, Alaska and Wyoming).

Based on the new EVERYTHING TABLE, we can see that 3 states have moved over the line into statistically, verifiably Republican territory: Florida, North Carolina and Indiana.

We can also see that three states are still, as of election day, in the tossup-zone: Colorado, Virginia and Florida. The state that is, reminiscent of 2000, closest to an absolute mathematical tie is: Florida.


Summary

If the current polling averages hold, and historically, they have almost all the time, then President Barack Hussein Obama will be re-elected to a second term in office and will serve that second term from January 20, 2013 to January 19, 2017. He will most likely carry 26 of the 29 states from 2008, whereas Governor Romney will carry 25 states: all 22 of the McCain states from 2008, plus three GOP pick-ups: Indiana, Florida and North Carolina.

When you look at the EVERYTHING TABLE, it is clear to see that the President has seen erosion in margin in almost all states of the Union, and in most of the GOP states, Mitt Romney is poised to improve upon John McCain's performance from 2008, but that alone is not enough for Governor Romney to win. In the key battleground states, regardless of the direction of the national polling, Obama has held steady margin average leads in two of the three so-called Trifecta states: Ohio and Pennsylvania. Romney has held a small but seemingly resilient margin lead in the other Trifecta state: Florida. But looking at how the electoral landscape shifted so abruptly in 2008, we now see that Virginia and Colorado - both once solid GOP states -  are joining those three, so the term "Quintifecta" may be better. But if we are really honest with ourselves, after this cycle, Pennsylvania, with its 20 EV, will most likely have become a 6-for-6 Democratic state and not nearly as competitive as either Colorado or Virginia, so I am putting forward the idea that we now have a QUADRIFECTA to look at closely for 2016:

Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia.

We can also look at it this way: 

the states where President Obama is expected to win landslide majorities in the popular vote (DC, VT, HI, NY, MD, RI, MA, IL, DE, CA, WA, CT, ME and NJ) have a sum total of 179 EV.

the states where Mitt Romney is expected to win landslide majorities in the popular vote (UT, WY, ID, AR, OK, AK, KS, TN, TX, ND, NE, AL, LA, KY, WV, SD and MO) have a sum total of 153 EV.

the states where President Obama is expected to win between +5 and +9.9 in the popular vote (NM, MN and OR) have a sum total of 22 EV, now bringing the President to 201 EV.

the states where Mitt Romney is expected to win between +5 and +9.9 in the popular vote (MT, GA, AZ and SC) have a sum total of 38 EV, now bringing Governor Romney to 191 EV, a total we have seen very often in most of the Electoral Landscapes to date.

the states that are in the battleground zone but outside of the tossups for President Obama, where he is expected to win by +2.1 to +4.9 (all outside the mandatory recount zone: MI, WI, NV, PA, OH, NE and IA) have a sum total of 80 EV, now bringing President Obama over the top, at 281 EV.

the states that are in the battleground zone but outside of the tossups for Governor Romney, where he is expected to win by +2.1 to +4.9 (all outside the mandatory recount zone: NC) have a sum total of 15 EV, now bringing Governor Romney to 206 EV.

of course, the three tossups state could suddenly tilt to the "other guy". We see from 2000 how Florida went back and forth until being called for George W. Bush, Jr. 36 days later. But the difference is that this time, Florida is not likely to be the tipping point state.

How can I write with such certainty? Because the averages for the key states where it really matters to get over 270 EV have been very consistent for the last three weeks, post Vice Presidential debate and Presidential Debate No. 2, and the trends are glass-clear to see.

Individual Analyses - the 5 most crucial states

Florida currently has a week-long average of Romney +0.61, but a Final two-day average of Romney +0.66: (updated 11/06, 10 EST, for new Zogby polls of FL, VA and OH)

Nr. FLORIDA Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und. Mar.

AVERAGE (one week): N/A N/A N/A 47,92 48,53 3,55 0,61

AVERAGE (FINAL 2 DAYS):


47,98 48,63 3,39 0,66










Most recent (no repeaters):















113 NewsmaxZogby Swing States - Final 06.11.12 1041 LV +/-3.1 47,8 47,7 4,5 0,1
112 Ipsos / Reuters – Final Poll 05.11.12 769 LV +/-3.2 47 48 5 -1
111 Angus Reid – FINAL POLL 05.11.12 525 LV +/-4.3 49 49 2 0
110 Gravis (R) - FINAL POLL 05.11.12 1060 LV +/-3.1 49 49 2 0
108 Mellman (D) / AUC – Final Poll 05.11.12 800 LV +/-3.4 47 45 8 2
107 Insider Advantage / Times-Union 05.11.12 437 LV +/-4.6 47 52 1 -5
106 PPP (D) – Final Poll 04.11.12 955 LV +/-3.2 50 49 1 1
105 Pulse / Let Freedom Ring (Tea-Party) 04.11.12 1000 LV +/-3.0 48 50 2 -2
104 YouGov 04.11.12 1621 LV +/-3.0 47 48 5 -1
100 Mason-Dixon 02.11.12 800 LV +/-3.5 45 51 4 -6
99 NBC / WSJ / Marist 02.11.12

49 47 4 2
96 Grove (D) / PNA 01.11.12 600 LV +/-4.0 48 47 5 1
93 Quinnipiac / NYT / CBS 31.10.12 1073 LV +/-3.0 48 47 5 1
90 WAA (R) 31.10.12 1146 LV +/-3.0 48,9 49,8 1,3 -0,9
88 SUSA 30.10.12 595 LV +/-4.1 47 47 6 0
86 CNN / ORC 29.10.12 770 LV +-3.5 49 50 1 -1


There are good reasons to think that Governor Romney will win Florida, even if it may take a while to get all the votes sorted out:

1.) He has lead in more polling that President Obama now for the last 5 weeks. He has also hit the 50 mark more often.

2.) Latino doesn't always mean Latino. Cuban Hispanics (of which there are many in Florida) are more Conservative-oriented than Latinos from Middle and South America, and more than likely, President Obama will not have such a commanding lead among Latinos in the Sunshine State than he will likely have elsewhere.

3.) The entire South is posting much stronger numbers for Romney than it did for McCain four years ago, and Florida, though it is a more cosmopolitan and more diverse state, is still part of the South.  The bad news for Romney is that, in order to be really winning nationally, he needed to have put Florida away a long time ago, and he never did.

The only polling outfit that really thinks that Romney will win with a commanding lead is INSIDER ADVANTAGE, from neighboring Georgia, a firm that hides its results behind a paywall. It is interesting to note that no FINAL poll of Florida has been published by Rasmussen - yet. Should one arrive, then I will probably revise this statistic in the run of the day on election day.

Of course, in a nail-biter, the state could flip for the President, but my statistical money is on Romney carrying the state.

For very similar reasons, although it is also a tossup, President Obama is likely to retain Virginia, where the one-week average is Obama +0.77, but the Final two-day average is Obama +1.45, which is a major last-minute jump:

Nr. VIRGINIA Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und Mar.

AVERAGE (one week) N/A N/A N/A 48,18 47,41 4,41 0,77

AVERAGE (Final 2 days)


48,56 47,11 4,33 1,45










Most Recent (one-week, no repeaters:)















94 NewsmaxZogby Swing States - Final 06.11.12 800 LV +/-3.5 48,5 47,9 3,6 0,6
93 Ipsos / Reuters – Final Poll 05.11.12 828 LV +/-3.9 48 46 6 2
91 Mellman (D) / AUC – Final Poll 05.11.12 800 LV +/-3.4 48 45 7 3
90 Rasmussen 05.11.12 750 LV +/-4.0 48 50 2 -2
89 NBC / WSJ / Marist 05.11.12 1165 LV +/-2.9 48 47 5 1
88 PPP (D) – FINAL POLL 04.11.12 975 LV +/-3.1 51 47 2 4
87 Pulse (R) / Let Freedom Ring (Tea Party) 04.11.12 1000 LV +/-3.0 49 48 3 1
86 YouGov 04.11.12 1497 LV +/-2.7 48 46 6 2
81 WAA (R) 02.11.12 1069 LV +/-3.0 48,5 47,6 3,9 0,9
78 Quinnipiac / NYT / CBS 31.10.12 1074 LV +/-3.0 49 47 4 2
77 Roanoke 31.10.12 683 LV +/-4.0 44 50 6 -6

In my 2009 analysis of Virginia, post-2008-election, I wrote in the summary that President Obama would probably work very hard to "cement" Virginia into the Democratic column, for the addition of this once very relilable GOP state to the Democratic fold makes the electoral math for the Republicans much, much harder, and the addition of 13 reliable EV counterbalances the loss of 7 EV from the Democrats overall due to redistricting following the 2010 census.

Now, +1.77 is a very lean lead, but Romney has rarely lead in the composite polling for the Old Dominion and Obama has come over the 50 mark in enough polls to tell me that he has the lead. Also:

1.) The continued growth of NOVA (North Virginia) and the continued shrinking of the rest of the state makes it much more competitive for the next generation or two, regardless of candidates.

2.) Tim Kaine is well liked in Virginia and I suspect that a mutual coattails effect will be going on on election day.

3.) Virgil Goode (Constitution Party) is on the ballot in Virginia and I suspect that he will get more votes than pollsters realize.

I will not be surprised if, at the end of the day, Obama has won Virginia by +3.

In 2008, CNN called Virginia for Obama at 10:58 EST, two minutes before the West Coast came in and the Obama became President-Elect. So, the announcement from Virginia somewhat "went under" due to the timing of the call. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out tonight.

Colorado is also still leaning toward the President, with a current one-week average of Obama +1.87 and a final two-day average of Obama +2.60:

Nr. COLORADO Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und. Mar.

AVERAGE (One week, no repeaters): N/A N/A N/A 48,68 46,81 4,52 1,87

AVERAGE (FINAL TWO DAYS):


48,60 46,00 5,40 2,60










Most recent (one week):















61 Ipsos / Reuters – Final Poll 05.11.12 774 LV +/-3.2 48 47 5 1
60 On Sight / Keating Research - Final Poll 05.11.12 603 LV +/-4.0 50 46 4 4
59 PPP (D) – Final Poll 05.11.12 1096 LV +/-3.0 52 46 2 6
58 Lake Research (D) 05.11.12 400 LV
45 44 11 1
57 YouGov 04.11.12 752 LV +/-4.1 48 47 5 1
53 Denver Post / SUSA 02.11.12 695 LV +/-3.8 50 46 4 4
51 Rasmussen 01.11.12 500 LV +/-4.5 47 50 3 -3
50 CallFire / Faith Horizon 01.11.12 839 LV +/-3.4 49 48 3 1
48 CNN / ORC 01.11.12 764 LV +/-3.5 50 48 2 2
46 WAA (R) 31.10.12 1246 LV +/-2.9 50,1 46,7 3,2 3,4
45 Grove New Insight (D) / PNA 30.10.12 500 LV +/-4.4 48 45 7 3
44 ARG 29.10.12 600 LV +/-4.4 47 48 5 -1

For reasons parallel to Virginia, the President has a definite upper hand going into election day:

1.) As with Virgil Goode in Virginia, Gary Johnson (Libertarian Party) is on the ballot in Colorado, and he is a known quantity in this state.

2.) The ballot amendment to legalize Marijuana - a pretty left-wing but also a Libertarian issue, is likely going to bring out voters more aligned with the Left that with the Right. This is to the President' advantage.

3.) If Obama hits the 75% mark in Denver County again, as he did in 2008 and both Arapahoe and Jefferson counties are retentions for the President or at least the race comes to a draw there, then Obama will win CO once again. And I looks like just that is going to happen.


Iowa is posting a one week average of Obama +2.14 and a final two-day average of Obama +2.17:

Nr. IOWA Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und. Mar.

AVERAGE (one week): N/A N/A N/A 48,10 45,96 5,94 2,14

AVERAGE (FINAL 3 DAYS):


47,83 45,67 6,50 2,17










Most recent (one-week, no repeaters):















39 ARG – Final Poll 05.11.12 600 LV +/-4.0 49 49 2 0
38 PPP (D) – FINAL POLL 04.11.12 1122 LV +/-2.9 50 48 2 2
37 YouGov 04.11.12 1040 LV +/-3.5 48 47 5 1
36 Selzer / Register 03.11.12 800 LV +/-3.5 47 42 11 5
35 Grove Insight (D) / PNA / USAction 03.11.12 500 LV +/-4.4 47 44 9 3
34 Mellman (D) / AUC 03.11.02 600 LV +/-4.0 46 44 10 2
33 Gravis (R) 02.11.12 594 LV +/-4.0 49 45 6 4
32 CallFire / Faith Horizon 01.11.12 891 LV +/-3.4 50 47 3 3
31 Rasmussen 01.11.12 750 LV +/-4.5 48 49 3 -1
30 NBC / WSJ/ Marist 31.10.12 1142 LV +/-2.9 50 44 6 6
29 University of Iowa 31.10.12 320 A +/-5.6 44,4 45,2 10,4 -0,8
27 WAA (R) 31.10.12 1174 LV +/-3.0 48,8 47,3 3,9 1,5

The University of Iowa poll, released on 10/31, is actually cold coffee: it was conducted over a long time and long before 10/31. Considering the mathematically proven Rasmussen bias of about 4 points to the Right, then a Romney +1, which Rasmussen shows, probably means an Obama +3, which is pretty much in line with the other pollsters.

Obama has a stronger hand here than the polling shows because:

1.) There is still a D-edge in voter registration in Iowa and Obama has a massive landslide in the early voting, having banked critical votes before election day.

2.) Selzer is the absolute GOLD STANDARD for this state. When Selzer produces an Obama +5, then we can be pretty sure that Obama is set to win the state.

Ohio has been the most consistent state in polling over 18 months now. Obama has never lost a statistical lead here, not even once. The state has been amazingly consistent. Currently, the one-week average is Obama +3.24, the three-day average is Obama +3.20, the two day average is Obama +3.13 and the average for the 7 polls alone on 11/05 is Obama +3.06, mostly because of the Rasmussen 49/49 poll, showing an absolute tie in the Buckeye State. The final day average is just for fun, for there were a lot of FINAL polls from 11/04 that obviously deserve to be in the mix:


Nr. OHIO Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und Mar.

AVERAGE (one week): N/A N/A N/A 49,69 46,45 3,86 3,24

AVERAGE (3 days):


49,91 46,71 3,38 3,20

AVERAGE (Final two days):


49,99 46,86 3,15 3,13

AVERAGE (final day):


49,99 46,93 3,09 3,06

Mean Value:


49,89 46,74 3,37 3,16










Most recent (no repeaters, one week):















117 NewsmaxZogby Swing States - Final 06.11.12 832 LV +/-3.5 50,9 43,5 5,6 7,4
116 Angus Reid – Final Poll 05.11.12 572 LV +/-4.1 51 48 1 3
115 Ipsos / Reuters – Final Poll 05.11.12 680 LV +/-4.3 50 46 4 4
114 Gravis (R) - FINAL POLL 05.11.12 1316 LV +/-2.7 50 49 1 1
112 SUSA – Final Poll 05.11.12 803 LV +/-3.5 49 44 7 5
111 Rasmussen – Final Poll 05.11.12 750 LV +/-4.0 49 49 2 0
110 Ohio Poll / U of Cincy 05.11.12 889 LV +/-3.3 50 49 1 1
109 PPP (D) – FINAL POLL 04.11.12 1000 LV +/-3.1 52 47 1 5
108 Pulse (R) / Let Freedom Ring (Tea Party) 04.11.12 1000 LV +/-3.0 49 46 5 3
107 YouGov 04.11.12 1620 LV +/-3.0 49 46 5 3
104 Columbus Dispatch 04.11.12 1501 LV +/-2.2 50 48 2 2
102 Grove Insight (D) / PNA / USAction 03.11.12 500 LV +/-4.4 49 45 6 4
101 NBC / WSJ / Marist 02.11.12 971 LV +/-3.1 51 45 4 6
99 WAA (R) 02.11.12 1649 LV +/-2.6 50,2 45,8 4 4,4
98 CNN/ORC 02.11.12 796 LV +/-3.5 50 47 3 3
95 Wenzel (R) / Citizens United (R) 01.11.12 1281 LV +/-2.7 46 49 5 -3
93 Quinnipiac / NYT / CBS 31.10.12 1100 LV +/-3.0 50 45 5 5
86 Mellmann (D) / AFC 30.10.12

49 44 7 5
85 Pharos Research 30.10.12 765 LV +/-3.5 49 46,3 4,7 2,7

Ohio has been the most polled state in the Union: a whopping 116 polls have been taken of the Buckeye State over 2012.

Of those 116, 1 was a generic poll (Obama vs. GOP candidate, nameless), 7 were absolute ties, 11 showed Romney ahead and 97 showed Obama ahead. That is an amazing statistic for a Democratic incumbent in a traditionally GOP leaning state in the middle of a tight national election.

As Nate Silver has pointed out, we have rarely seen a state polled so richly, where one candidate maintained the lead - even a lean one like +3, and then lost the state. Polling in 1992 was showing an average of about +1.8 for Clinton in Ohio, and he won the state by about +1.8

I will also note that Rasmussen also showed an absolute tie in Ohio in its final poll for 2008, and Obama won the state by +4.58%. Rasmussen never gave an explanation for why its polling was so off in so many battleground states from 2008.

There are just too many polls from credible pollsters showing a certain Obama lead to be able to or to want to ignore them. The most telling poll of all perhaps is the SUSA poll from 11/05, showing Obama +5. SUSA is probably the most neutral of all pollsters out there.

Which explains why Mitt Romney is going to campaign today, 11/06, in Cleveland, following the advice of his statisticians, who know that in order to him to win the state, he must reduce Obama's margins coming of of Cuyahoga County.

I was almost 100% sure that Obama was going to take the Buckeye State in 2008, and his polling was more tenuous then than it is now. I am 100% sure that Obama will win in Ohio today.

Also, to note, Ohio has generally "hugged" the national margin for Republicans who have won and it has been under the national margin for Democrats who have won, but this time, it may end up doing the opposite.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(I have a great deal of work to do today. If time permits, I will include analyses of other key states, but actually, as of Ohio, it is enough analysis. With Ohio locked up, and it IS locked up, then Obama will be re-elected). UPDATE, 11/06/2012, 5 pm EST: got home from work, no time now to write more analysis, but the essence of this for many, many other states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, etc., can be found in the most recent of battleground reports.

Here is the battleground table that would have been published, were this "only" a battleground report:

A B C D E E G H I J K L M
State EV % of EC Polls 05.11.12 04.11.12 Shift 2008 2004 SWING (H-I) End polling 2008 Compare E – K Compare E – GE008
NC 15 2,79% 1 / 5 2,40 1,60 0,80 0,33 12,43 12,76 0,62 3,02 2,73
FL 29 5,39% 6 / 17 0,61 0,66 -0,05 2,81 5,01 7,82 1,79 2,40 3,42
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
USA 538 100,00% 14 / 24 1,33 1,04 0,29 7,26 2,46 9,72 7,54 -6,21 -5,93
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
VA 13 2,42% 5 / 11 0,77 1,65 -0,88 6,30 8,20 14,50 4,93 -4,16 -5,53
CO 9 1,67% 4 / 12 1,87 1,44 0,43 8,95 4,67 13,62 6,62 -4,75 -7,08
IA 6 1,12% 1 / 12 2,14 2,34 -0,20 9,53 0,67 10,20 12,75 -10,61 -7,39
NH 4 0,74% 1 / 8 2,50 2,76 -0,26 9,61 1,37 8,24 10,43 -7,93 -7,11
OH 18 3,35% 7 / 19 3,24 3,35 -0,11 4,58 2,11 6,69 2,30 0,94 -1,34
PA 20 3,72% 2 / 8 3,88 4,00 -0,12 10,31 2,50 7,81 7,30 -3,42 -6,43
WI 10 1,86% 1 / 11 4,52 4,27 0,25 13,90 0,38 13,52 11,34 -6,82 -9,38
NV 6 1,12% 1 / 6 4,67 4,80 -0,13 12,49 2,59 15,08 6,83 -2,16 -7,82
-- --
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
MI 16 2,97% 1 / 8 4,79 5,14 -0,35 16,44 3,42 13,02 14,44 -9,65 -11,65
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here the National polling:

Nr. NATIONAL POLLING Date Sample MoE Obama Romney Und/Oth Mar.

AVERAGE (one week): N/A N/A N/A 48,36 47,03 2,78 1,33

AVERAGE ( 3 days: 11/04-11/06):


48,61 47,40 1,83 1,21

Average (2 day):


48,54 47,34 1,27 1,20

Average (mean-value):


48,50 47,25 1,96 1,25











RECENT:

















REF Rand Poll – Final Poll 05.11.12 3500 LV
49,88 45,49 4,63 4,39










748 Gravis (R) - Final Poll 06.11.12 872 LV +/-3.3 48 48 4 0
747 Rasmussen - daily tracking 06.11.12 1500 LV +/-3.0 48 49 3 -1
746 Angus Reid 06.11.12 1050 LV +/-3.1 51 48 1 3
745 JzAnalytics - Newsmax Zogby – Final Poll 06.11.12 1041 LV +/-3.1 47,3 46,8 5,9 0,5
744 Google Consumer Survey – Final Poll 05.11.12 4966 LV
45,2 42,9 11,9 2,3
743 UPI / CVOTER -FINAL POLL 05.11.12 3000 LV +/-3.5 49 48 3 1
742 ABC / WaPo – Final Poll 05.11.12 3205 LV +/-2.5 50 47 3 3
741 Ipsos/Reuters – FINAL POLL 05.11.12 4725 LV +/-3.4 48 46 6 2
739 Monmouth 05.11.12 1418 LV +/-2.6 48 48 4 0
738 PPP (KOS / SEIU) - FINAL POLL 05.11.12 1400 LV +/-2.7 50 48 2 2
737 Gallup (LV Screen) - FINAL TRACKING 05.11.12 2700 LV +/-2.0 49 50 1 -1
736 NBC / WSJ - Final Poll 05.11.12 1475 LV +/-2.55 48 47 5 1
735 Democracy Corps – Final Poll 05.11.12 1070 LV +/-3.7 49 45 6 4
733 ARG – Final Poll 05.11.12 1200 LV +/-4.0 49 49 2 0
731 CNN / ORC 04.11.12 1013 LV +/-3.5 49 49 2 0
728 YouGov – Final Poll 04.11.12 36,472 LV
48,5 46,5 5 2
726 Pew Research -Final Poll 04.11.12 2709 LV +/-2.2 50 47 3 3
725 GWU/Politico Battleground - Final Poll 04.11.12 1000 LV +/-3.1 48 48 4 0
711 Purple Strategies - FINAL POLL 02.11.12 1000 LV +/-3.1 47 46 7 1
710 Washington Times / Zogby 02.11.12 800 LV +/-3.4 48,7 48,5 2,8 0,2
706 High Point University (NC) 01.11.12 805 LV +/-3.45 46 43 11 3
699 CBS / Times 31.10.12 563 LV +/-4.0 48 47 5 1
695 National Journal / United Technologies 31.10.12 713 LV +/-4.4 50 45 5 5
692 Fox News 31.10.12 1128 LV +/-3.0 46 46 8 0


Lots of things to read in this data:

1.) Gallup has published its final poll, after suspending polling due to Hurricane "Sandy". Like Rasmussen and Zogby, it shows Romney +1 or a little more.

2.) UPI, NBC, Purple and CBS all show Obama +1

3.) The ABC/WAPO poll is probably the most telling of them all: after WEEKS of showing Romney +1, ABC now shows Obama +3 and hitting the 50 mark. No one can brand ABC or WAPO as liberal outfits. 

At the end of the day, the end polling, over the entire week, shows Obama +1.22.

But national pollling is not where the real game is: the real game is in the pollling for the individual states, which clearly shows a now unsurmountable advantage for the President going into election day.

There were 11 polls from 11/04 of 19 in the total mix. All results are LV.

You will now notice that I am calculating three averages as of today, plus a mean value based on them. Obama has retaken the lead in national polling. A look back at the last 6 weeks:

Here is the polling outlook for 2012-11-005 and 006: Obama +1.22% (+0.18 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-11-004: Obama +1.04% (+0.32 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-11-003Obama +0.72% (+0.25 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-11-002Obama +0.47% (+0.25 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-11-001Obama +0.22 (-0.31 shift -or- +0.31 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-031 Romney +0.09 (-0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-030Romney +0.16 (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-029Romney +0.16 (+0.08 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-028Romney +0.08 (-0.01 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-027Romney +0.09 (-0.10 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-026Romney +0.19 (+0.11 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-025Romney +0.08 (+0.25 shift -or- -0.25 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-024Obama +0.17 (-0.38 shift -or- +0.38 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-023Romney +0.21 (+0.15 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-022Romney +0.06 (-0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-021Romney +0.19 (+0.54 shift -or- -0.54 shift)
Here was  the polling outlook for 2012-10-020Obama +0.35 (-0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-019Obama +0.44 (-0.58 shift -or- +0.58 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-018Romney +0.13 (-0.14 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-017: Romney +0.27 (+0.18 shift )
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-016: Romney +0.09 (+0.31 shift -or- -0.31 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-015: Obama +0.22 (-0.46 shift -or- +0.46 shift) 
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-014: Romney +0.24 (-0.35 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-013: Romney +0.59 (+0.09 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-012: Romney +0.50 (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-011: Romney +0.44 (+0.44 shift -or- -0.44 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-0100.00 (-0.81 shift -or- +0.81 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-009Obama +0.81% (-1.55 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-008Obama +2.36% (-0.62 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-007Obama +2.98% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-006Obama +2.98% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-005Obama +3.54% (-0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-004Obama +3.74% (-0.05 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-003Obama +3.79% (+0.22 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-002Obama +3.57% (-0.56 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-10-001
Obama +4.11% (-0.52 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-030
Obama +4.63% (-0.10 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-029Obama +4.73% (+0.20 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-028
Obama +4.53% (-0.21 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-027Obama +4.74% (+0.36 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-026Obama +4.38% (+0.19 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-025Obama +4.19% (+0.23 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-024Obama +3.96% (+0.21 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-023Obama +3.75% (+0.06 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-022Obama +3.69% (+0.18 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-021Obama +3.87% (+0.49 shift)
Here was the polling outlook
 for 2012-09-020Obama +3.38% (-0.22 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-019Obama +3.60% (-0.40 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for
 2012-09-018: Obama +4.00% (+0.07 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-017Obama +3.93% (+0.12 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-016Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)

Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-015Obama +3.81% (0.00 shift)
Here was the polling outlook for 2012-09-014Obama +3.81% 

Net shift since 09/14Obama -2.59% / Romney +2.59%


For the twenty-fifth day in a row, we are seeing a statistical tie in the national numbers.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, that concludes Electoral Landscape No. 8, the final Landscape and final predictions for the 2012 presidential election.


What comes next?

-As soon as the last state has been called, then about 10 days later, I will publish the new partisan rankings from 2012, based on the No. 1 state in margin average for the winner. I will publish the PRELIMINARY totals (raw votes, topline percentages, percentage margins) as well, in comparison to the end polling from 2012 and also to the results from 2008.

-When the final canvasses are in and everything is sealed into the congressional record, then I will post the partisan rankings again, this time with the end-results, as compared to 2008.

-Afterward, a huge analysis of the entire election.

-the 51 state bios created in November and December of 2011 will then be updated with the figures from 2012 as well, looking forward to 2016.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Appendix:

This is my eighth and FINAL major electoral landscape prediction-output for the 2012 election. Here the links to the older EC Landscape reports:

Electoral Landscape No.
Date
Projection
8 - Final
Election Day
Obama 281 / Romney 206 / Tossups 51 / Margin: Obama +75
Obama 303 / Romney 235 /  Margin: Obama +68
7
10/29/2012
Obama 281 / Romney 206 / Tossups 51 / Margin: Obama +75
6
Obama 263 / Romney 191 / Tossups 84 / Margin: Obama +72
5
Obama 281 / Romney 206 / Tossups 51 / Margin: Obama +75
4
Obama 332 / Romney 191 / Tossups 15 / Margin: Obama +141
3
Obama 284 / Romney 206 / Tossups 48 / Margin: Obama +78
2
Obama 235 / Romney 220 / Tossups 83 / Margin: Obama +15
1
Obama 281 / Romney 191 / Tossups 66 / Margin: Obama +90

There were a good number of polls in 2010-2011 as well, you can see them all HERE (national), HERE (Alabama through New Hampshire) and HERE (New Jersey through Wyoming).


Here the new state polls, per day, between October 30 and Nvember 5 . The abbreviations are color-coded according to which candidate won the poll:

10/30: CA, CO, FL, FL, IN, MA, MT, NE, NM, NC, ND, OH (5), OR (2), VA (2) - 20 state polls

10/31: CO, CO, FL (2), FL (3), FL, IL, IN, IA (3), IA, MA, MI (3), MN, MO, NE, NH, NC, OH (5), PA, VA (5), WI (3) - 37 state polls from 16 states

11/01: CO (2), CO (2), FL (2), IA, IA, NV, NC, OH, OH, RI, VA, WA (2), WI (3) - 19 state polls from 10 states

11/02: CA, CO (2), CO, CT, FL (2), FL, GA, HI, IN (2), IA, ME (1.5), MA (2), MI (3), MN, NE, NH (2), OH (4), OH, OR, SD, UT, VA (2), WI - 34 state polls from 20 states

11/03: CO, FL, IA (3), ME ,MI (2), MN (2), NV, NH, OH (3), PA, PA, VA , WA, WI (2) - 18 state polls from 13 states

11/04: AZ (2), CA, CO, CO, CT, FL, FL (3), FL, GA, IL, IN, IA (2), MD, MA (3), MI, MI, MN (2) , MO (3), MT (3), NV, NH (2), NJ, NM, NY, NC, NC, OH (6), PA (3), TN, TX, VA (5), WA, WI (2) - 57 state polls from 28 states (185 polls to date since Electoral Landscape No. 7).

11/05: CO (4), FL (2), FL (2), FL (2), IA, MI, NV, NH (3), NH, NC, OH (6), OH, PA (2), SD, UT, VA (4), VA, WI - 35 state polls from 13 states

11/06: FL, ME, MI OH, VA  - 5 state polls from 5 states (225 polls to date since Electoral Landscape No. 7).



Links to all former battleground/special reports for 2012 and 2008:


T-Minus
DAY
Date
From 2008
Other from 2008
Other from 2012
42
Tuesday
---


41
Wednesday
---

40
Thursday


39
Friday


38
Saturday
none


37
Sunday

36
Monday

35
Tuesday

34
Wednesday


33
Thursday

32
Friday

31
Saturday
none

30
Sunday
29
Monday


28
Tuesday


27
Wednesday

26
Thursday


25
Friday


24
Saturday


23
Sunday

22
Monday

21
Tuesday
none


20
Wednesday
none


19
Thursday
none

18
Friday

17
Saturday


16
Sunday


15
Monday


14
Tuesday


13
Wednesday


12
Thursday


11
Friday
none

10
Saturday
none

9
Sunday

8
Monday


7
Tuesday


6
Wednesday


5
Thursday


4
Friday


3
Saturday
none

2
Sunday


1
Monday
2012-11-005
none


0
Tuesday
2012-11-006
none



Number of polls themselves, by state:

State 2012-07-015 2012-08-028 2012-09-015 2012-09-030 2012-10-013 2012-10-022 2012-10-029 2012-11-005
Ohio 20 31 35 44 61 71 84 117
Florida 25 36 43 55 65 78 87 113
Virginia 22 29 32 42 52 60 73 94
Wisconsin 19 30 30 38 44 48 53 65
Colorado 9 15 19 26 33 38 44 61
Pennsylvania 17 24 25 36 41 50 53 61
North Carolina 17 22 28 33 40 45 51 57
Michigan 13 21 25 33 40 44 45 55
New Hampshire 8 12 14 20 25 29 36 42
Massachusetts 11 13 14 21 28 32 34 41
Nevada 6 10 11 18 24 29 36 40
Iowa 5 7 8 14 17 24 26 39
Missouri 6 15 18 21 25 29 30 34
California 11 14 16 19 21 23 25 28
Washington (State) 7 11 14 16 18 24 24 28
New Jersey 9 12 16 18 20 25 26 27
Arizona 10 11 12 15 18 19 20 22
Connecticut 3 6 7 10 12 17 20 22
Minnesota 4 5 7 9 10 13 16 22
New Mexico 6 8 10 13 16 17 19 22
New York 11 14 15 16 16 17 20 21
Montana 4 6 7 8 11 13 14 18
Indiana 2 3 3 6 7 9 11 16
Georgia 5 6 6 8 8 10 12 14
Maine 5 6 6 9 12 12 12 14
Illinois 1 2 5 6 7 8 8 10
Nebraska 4 4 4 5 5 5 7 10
North Dakota 2 3 3 4 5 6 8 10
Texas 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Oregon 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 9
Maryland 1 1 1 3 4 6 7 8
Tennessee 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 7
South Dakota 1 2 2 3 4 4 4 6
Utah 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 5
Arkansas 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3
Louisiana 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 3
Oklahoma 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3
Rhode Island 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 3
Vermont 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
District of Columbia 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
Hawaii 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2
West Virginia 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2
Alabama 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Idaho 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
Kansas 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
Kentucky 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1
South Carolina 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Alaska 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Delaware 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mississippi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wyoming 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total STATE POLLS 282 400 459 597 724 846 953 1174
National 277 400 457 512 580 629 683 747
National – specialty polls 14 19 20 25 33 33 34 34
Total – with specialty polls 573 819 936 1134 1337 1508 1670 1955
Total – without specialty polls 559 800 916 1109 1304 1475 1636 1921

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