29 May 2011

IOWA polling - for a research project

Electoral Landscape tables and Map 2012 - as of May 2011

Electoral Landscape Map for 2012:
as of end of May, 2011

The following states have been polled in one-on-one matchups for President 2012:

30 states have been polled at least once.

Here they are, alphabetically:

AZ (2), CA (1), CO (1), FL (6), GA (2), IA (2), ME (1), MA (1), MI (2), MN (1), MS (1), MO (3), MT (1), NE (1), NV (2), NH (4), NM(1), NJ (3), NC (7), OH (5), PA (3), RI (1), SC (1), SD (1), TN (1), TX (1), VA (4), WA (1), WV (1), WI (2)

And here in order of number of polls, descending:

7: NC
6: FL
5: OH
4: NH, VA
3: MO, NJ, PA
2: AZ, GA, IA, MI, MN, NV, WI
1: CA, CO, ME, MA, MS, MT, NE, NM, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, WA, WV

That makes for 67 state polls total. Not surprisingly, the battleground/ DEM pick-up states from 2008 have been polled more often, for instance NC, VA, FL and OH. Every DEM pick-up from 2008 has been polled except for one notable exception: IN

At the bottom is also a listing of 28 national polls.

With the pulse of 30 states having been checked at least once, it is possible to make a rudimentary map of how the electoral landscape is looking right now, based on the data-tables provided here. For each state, I have created a table, just as I did in 2008, with pollster (hyperlinked), publication date and then the names of prospective GOP candidates.

The poll numbers are then color coded:

blue=DEM, red=GOP
bold=winner of the matchup
italics=tie.

The designation after the state on the tables is based on its performance in the 2008 GE. Ohio was a DEM pick-up in 2008, so it currently stands as a DEM state. AZ was a GOP state in 2008, so it is listed as a GOP state now. Under each table are some sideline statistics from 2004, 2008 and the average of that state from 1948-2004 (the nuclear age).

Here as an example of how a state table looks, using the the state of IOWA:

Iowa – DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
Trump
other
04/21/11
45 / 41
45 / 45
50 / 39
53 / 36
51 / 35
43 / 27 / 21
01/12/11
47 / 41
47/ 43
51 / 38
53 / 37
---
51 / 33




Obama 2008 margin: +9.53
Bush 2004 margin: +0.67
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.84

We see here two PPP polls, three months apart from each other. We see 11 match-ups, of which Obama has won 10 and the 11th is a tie. For this reason, in creating an electoral landscape map, this state is still blue at this time.

You will see some polls that are very mixed. GA for instance shows Obama winning some match-ups, but the GOP still wins the majority of the match-ups. Therefore, this state stays red at this time.

There are some tea-leaves to be red in all of this:

In VA, there have been 4 polls, 19 match-ups, and Obama has won all of them.
In NC, there have been 7 polls, 30 match-ups, of which Obama has lost 2, one is a tie and he won the other 27. Not only that, the candidate he tied or lost to (Huckabee), is no longer in the running.
In FL, there have been 6 polls, 25 match-ups, where Obama has lost 4 and won the other 21.
In OH, there have been 5 polls, 14 match-ups and Obama has won every match-up.
In NV, there have been 2 polls, 11 match-ups, where Obama has lost 1 and won the other 10.
In NH, there have been 4 polls, 20 match-ups, where Obama has lost 2 and won the other 18.
In NM, there has only been one poll with 5 match-ups, where Obama has won all 5 with crushing margins.
IN IA, there have been 2 polls with 11 match-ups, where Obama has tied one match-up (Huckabee) and won the other 10.
In CO, there has only been one poll (which has surprised me), where Obama handlily won all 4 matchups.

FACIT: in all of the DEM pick-up states from 2008 polled thus far, Obama is still ahead, and statistically far enough ahead to warrant listing all of these states as DEM states on an electoral landscape map for now.

Here is the map. It is NOT a prediction of how the state will go in 2012, but rather, how conditions are looking right now:


Of the 20 states (plus DC) that have not been polled yet, we can assume that they will probably follow their tendencies from 2008, for instance, I doubt that if Obama is landsliding in MA right now that he will be in danger in his home states of IL or HI. Likewise, since Romney is tromping in MT right now, there is no reason to think that ID or WY are battlegrounds.

FACIT: right now, the electoral map, when we mentally fill-in the missing blanks, looks pretty much as it did in 2008, with a big question mark around IN and NE-02 (the poll of NE said that Obama was ahead in Omaha but listed no specifics, so the “data” in this case is worthless).


Once the GOP nominee is picked, then I will also be calculating the undecideds and the margins, but for now, seeing the raw numbers as they are will do the trick. At this site, it is impossible to port all of the tables here, that would be many thousands more characters than is allowed, but here is one table to show as a sample. You will need to go to my politics blog to see all the numbers.

Arizona - GOP




Pollster
Date
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
Trump
other
05/03/11
44 / 48
46 / 44
47 / 40
49 / 38
48 / 36

03/02/11
43 / 49
44 / 48
46 / 46
49 / 41

---




McCain 2008 margin: +8.48
Bush 2004 margin: +10.47
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +14.60

----------------------------------------------------------------------
California- DEM








Pollster
Date
Obama
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
other
02/03/11

56 / 36
54 / 39
58 / 34
62 / 31
48/40




Obama 2008 margin: +24.03
Kerry 2004 margin: +9.95
GOP margin average 1948-2004: +0.96




---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Colorado – DEM




Pollster
Date
Obama
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
other
02/08/11

47 / 41
51 / 42
53 / 39
55 / 36
---








Obama 2008 margin: +8.95
Bush 2004 margin: +4.67
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +9.41




---------------------------------------------------------------
Florida – DEM




Pollster
Date
Obama
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
other
Average:







05/26/11





44 / 37
04/14/11

44 / 43
44 / 41
47 / 36
52 / 34
41 / 28
45 / 30
49 / 34
04/11/11

43 / 48
44 / 49
----
51 / 39
48 / 40






38 / 41
03/31/11

46 / 44
50 / 43
50 / 42
52 / 39
48 / 45
48 / 42
12/22/10

46 / 44
49 / 44
47 / 42
52 / 38
48 / 40




Obama 2008 margin: +2.81
Bush 2004 margin: +5.01
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +8.65
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Georgia – GOP




Pollster
Date
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
other
Average:






04/05/11
43 / 46
45 / 48
46 / 45
48 / 43
44 / 39
02/03/11
44 / 50
45 / 50
45 / 47
47 / 43
---




McCain 2008 margin: +5.20
Bush 2004 margin: +16.60
DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.17




------------------------------------------------------------------




Iowa – DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
Trump
other
04/21/11
45 / 41
45 / 45
50 / 39
53 / 36
51 / 35
43 / 27 / 21
01/12/11
47 / 41
47/ 43
51 / 38
53 / 37
---
51 / 33




Obama 2008 margin: +9.53
Bush 2004 margin: +0.67
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.84




------------------------------------------------------------------
Maine – DEM




Pollster
Date
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
other
03/11/11
49 / 41
51 / 39
53 / 37
57 / 35
----




Obama 2008 margin: +17.32
Kerry 2004 margin: +9.00
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.67




------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Massachusetts - DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
other
12/03/10
52 / 43
57 / 33
57 / 33
61 / 32
51 / 43




Obama 2008 margin: +25.81
Kerry 2004 margin: +25.16
DEM margin average 1948-2004: +14.75




------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Michigan- DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
other
03/25/11
48 / 41
50 /41
53 / 37
55 / 35
49 / 38
12/07/10
47 / 43
51 /39
52 / 37
56 / 35
49 / 38




Obama 2008 margin: +16.44
Kerry 2004 margin: +3.42
GOP margin average 1948-2004: +0.42




----------------------------------------------------------------
Minnesota – DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
other
12/08/10
47 / 42
50 / 40
51 / 38
54 / 36
51 / 43




Obama 2008 margin: +10.24
Kerry 2004 margin: +3.48
DEM margin average 1948-2004: +6.15




-------------------------------------------------------------------
Mississippi – GOP


Pollster
Date
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
Barbour
11/17/10
40 / 46
40 / 54
42 / 48
44 / 48
41 / 51




McCain 2008 margin: +13.17
Bush 2004 margin: +19.69
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +9.66




------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Missouri – GOP




Pollster
Date
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
Trump
other
05/13/11
43 / 45
44 / 49
46 / 44
48 / 43
46 / 41

03/09/11
43 / 44
43 / 49
44 / 44
48 / 43

---
12/02/10
41 / 47
42 / 49
44 / 45
46 / 43

---








McCain 2008 margin: +0.13
Bush 2004 margin: +7.20
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +0.21




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Montana – GOP

Pollster
Date
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
other
11/17/10
29/50
49/44
41/51
45/47
----








McCain 2008 margin: +2.38
Bush 2004 margin: +20.50
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +9.54




------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Nebraska – GOP


Pollster
Date
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
other
01/31/11
37 / 49
38 / 51
40 / 48
44 / 45
--





McCain 2008 margin: +14.93
Bush 2004 margin: +33.22
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +24.44




------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nevada – DEM pick-up




Pollster
Date
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
Trump
other
04/28/11
43 / 46
45 / 43
46 / 42
50 / 39
47 / 41
42 / 34 / 20
44 / 30 / 21
01/07/11
47 / 46
51 / 41
51 / 40
52/39
---
----




Obama 2008 margin: +12.49
Bush 2004 margin: +2.59
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: + 9.94




----------------------------------------------------------------
New Hampshire – DEM




Pollster
Date
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
Trump
other
04/28/11
43 / 50
46 / 42
----
---
---
45 /38
04/22/11
39 / 47
45 / 37
----
54 / 27
51 / 29
28 / 48
47 / 27
41 / 25
42 / 23
04/06/11
47 / 46
52 / 38
52 / 39
56 / 34

51 / 37
02/14/11
48 / 44
51 / 38
56 / 33
57 / 34

---




Obama 2008 margin: +9.61
Kerry 2004 margin: +1.37
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +11.34
------------------------------------------------------------------
New Jersey- DEM




Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
Palin
other
Huckabee
05/27/11
49 / 43
--
--
49 / 44

01/11/11
52 / 37
54 / 37
59 / 29
55 / 38
53/36




Obama 2008 margin: +15.53
Kerry 2004 margin: +6.68
DEM margin average 1948-2004: +3.43




--------------------------------------------------------------------------
New Mexico- DEM pick-up




Pollster
Date
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
other
02/09/11
53 / 37
55 / 36
56 / 35
62 / 33
51 / 36




Obama 2008 margin: +15.13
Bush 2004 margin: +0.79
GOP margin average 1948-2004: +4.10




---------------------------------------------------------------------------
North Carolina – DEM pick-up




Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
Palin
Huckabee
Trump
other
05/25/11
46 / 43
50 / 42
52 / 40
47 / 46
52 / 35

04/26/11
47 / 44
49 / 45
52 / 40
48 / 47
51 / 39
--
03/23/11
44 / 42
47 / 42
51 / 40
45 / 45

--
02/23/11
47 / 44
48 / 44
51 / 41
46 / 47

---
01/25/11
47 / 44
50 / 44
50 / 41
49 / 45

---
12/22/10
46 / 43
48 / 42
52 / 38
45 / 46

---
11/29/10
47 / 46
49 / 43
51 / 42
48 / 45










Obama 2008 margin: +0.33
Bush 2004 margin: +12.44
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.13
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ohio - DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
Pawlenty
Palin
other
Huckabee
05/24/11
46 / 42
49 / 40
---
50 / 40
48 / 38
---
03/24/11
--
--

--
41 / 34
--
03/18/11
46 / 40
50 / 38

52 / 36
----
48 / 41
01/20/11
--
--

--
44 / 39
--
12/14/10
44 / 42
47 / 41

49 / 42
----
45 / 44




Obama 2008 margin: +4.58
Bush 2004 margin: +2.11
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +5.15




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pennsylvania – DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
other
04/12/11
42 / 43
45 / 44
47 / 39
50 / 39
45 / 43
03/07/11
43 / 36
44 / 34
----
53 / 35
37 / 33
01/06/11
46 / 42
47 / 44
50 / 40
51 / 36
----




Obama 2008 margin: +10.31
Kerry 2004 margin: +2.50
DEM margin average 1948-2004: +0.25
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Rhode Island – DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
other
02/28/11
54 / 37
56 / 31
60 / 27
65 / 24
----








Obama 2008 margin: +27.81
Kerry 2004 margin: +20.75
DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +16.23




------------------------------------------------------------------------------
South Carolina – GOP




Pollster
Date
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
other
02/03/11
42 / 49
43 / 49
44 / 43
47 / 41
45 / 47




McCain 2008 margin: +8.98
Bush 2004 margin: +17.08
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +7.47




---------------------------------------------------------------
South Dakota – GOP




Pollster
Date
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
other
02/01/11
40 / 46
41 / 47
44 / 42
48 / 40
37 /57




McCain 2008 margin: +8.41
Bush 2004 margin: +21.47
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +13.31




-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tennessee – GOP




Pollster
Date
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
other
02/17/11
41 / 48
41 / 53
43 / 46
45 / 45
---




McCain 2008 margin: +15.06
Bush 2004 margin: +14.27
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +4.23




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Texas – GOP




Pollster
Date
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
Perry
01/20/11
42 / 49
39 / 55
43 / 48
46 /47
45 / 45




McCain 2008 margin: +11.76
Bush 2004 margin: +22.86
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +5.49
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Virginia – DEM pick-up




Pollster
Date
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
Trump
other
05/10/11
51 / 40
52 / 43
54 / 37
55 / 40
52 / 32
51 / 43
05/09/11
50 / 44
52 / 44
----
59 / 33
58 / 32
54 / 36
03/02/11
48 / 42
51 / 43
51 / 39
54 / 35

----
11/16/10
48 / 43
49 / 44
52 / 41
51 / 40

----




Obama 2008 margin: +6.30
Bush 2004 margin: +8.20
GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +10.14




---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Washington –DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
Palin
other
Huckabee
05/20/11
51 / 40
54 / 36
57 / 34
58 / 31
53 / 39




Obama 2008 margin: +17.08
Kerry 2004 margin: +7.18
DEM margin average 1948-2004: +0.97

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
West Virginia – GOP




Pollster
Date
Romney
Huckabee
Gingrich.
Palin
other
01/27/11
37 / 50
36 / 54
39 / 49
42 / 46
---




McCain 2008 margin: +13.09
Bush 2004 margin: +12.86
DEM combined margin average 1948-2004: +3.81




-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wisconsin – DEM

Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
Palin
other
Huckabee
05/26/11
51 / 39
53 / 35
55 / 36
50 / 43

03/03/11
48 / 38
51 / 39
54 / 35
49 / 40
48 / 41




Obama 2008 margin: +13.90
Kerry 2004 margin: +0.38
GOP margin average 1948-2004: +1.83




------------------------------------------------------------------
USA at large
Pollster
Date
Romney
Gingrich.
Pawlenty
Palin
other
Trump
Huckabee
Average:








05/26/11
49 / 42
51 / 37
---
54 / 37
---
---
---
05/19/11




43 / 35
45 / 28
49 / 27
45 / 32


05/20/11
45 / 42
51 / 35


48 / 36


05/18/11
46 / 43
52 / 38
47 / 31
--
50 / 30
48 / 30
--

05/16/11
52 / 41

52 / 39




05/12/11
---
52 / 32
----
----
-----
51 / 33
45 / 39
05/11/11
47 / 42
52 / 38
----
54 / 37
48 / 34
46 / 33 / 16
53 / 35
49 / 42
05/11/11
51 / 38
53 / 35

54 / 35
51 / 33
51 / 30
51 / 33
57 / 30
51 / 39
05/04/11
44 / 44


53 / 35

55 / 30
46 / 43
05/01/11
46 / 37
---

52 / 34
---
49 / 32
---
04/27/11
--
--

--
52 / 39
--
--
04/24/11
46 / 45
---

56 / 34
---
54 / 38
48 / 43
04/19/11
49 / 45
54 / 39

56 / 37
52 / 39
52 / 38
52 / 39
50 / 44
04/18/11
--
--

--
--
49 / 34
--
04/15/11
46 / 48
---

---
---

--
04/14/11
47 / 41
52 / 38

54 / 36
48 / 38
48 / 39

48 / 43
03/31/11
43 / 42
52 / 37

54 / 34
48 / 34
46 / 40

46 / 46
03/17/11
47 / 42
50 / 39

53 / 38
47 / 33

48 / 43
02/16/11
46 / 41
49 / 40

52 / 40
48 / 39

47 / 44
02/07-09/11
48 / 46
---

---
---

47 /47
02/06/11
44 / 42
47 / 39

49 / 36
40/43

43 /43
01/20/11
48/43
51/39

55 / 38
51/33

49 /44
01/14/11
51 / 38
--

56 / 30


50 / 38
01/03/11
41 / 41
----

45 / 38
40/43

42 /39
12/17/10
---
---

54 / 39
---

---
12/17/10



47/ 31
18



47 / 40


55 / 33
47/ 27


12/15/10
40/ 33
----

48 / 33
38/37

40 /34

** the three-man match-up Obama/Palin/Bloomberg is not in the average.