06 April 2011

Wisconsin Supreme Court race from April 5, 2011

You can follow the results through the link at AP. And though the candidates for the Supreme Court in Wisconsin are supposed to be non-partisan, it is abundantly evident that Prosser has the support of the right, while Kloppenburg has the support of the left.

Here the current totals:

Prosser*: 733,074 (50.02%)
Kloppenburg: 732,489 (49.96%)

current margin: Prosser +585 (+0.04%)


There are 34 precincts out of 3630 precincts left to report in. The majority of those precincts are Kloppenburg-friendly territory, so there is a good statistical chance that Kloppenburg will flip the vote today or tomorrow. However, either way, the margin is way below 0.50%, so a recount is all but guaranteed, including the accusations and the posturing from both sides, but mostly from the right.

SWING STATE PROJECT has an excellent table of the 34 precincts from those 9 counties left to finish reporting: of those nine counties, Prosser is winning two of those counties in a landslides, but they are small counties. The other 7 counties are Kloppenburg territory, the biggest of which is Milwaukee. Go take a look at the table yourself. I have not done an extrapolation yet for the rest of the results should be in today, but just looking with the naked eye tells me that Kloppenburg has a real chance of tipping the see-saw here. The variable I do not know is how many absentee ballots may still be out.

Update: KOS is reporting that Dunn county has now reported all precincts in and the margin is now down to +356 for Prosser. Kloppenburg had been winning this county with 55.09%, she finished by my calculations with 57.60%. This is significant as Dunn county, which had 2 of 34 remaining precincts out, is only a middle sized county as best. That means that there are still 32 precincts to go. The two precincts in Milwaukee county and the one remaining precinct in Dane county (the two largest counties in the state) could easily reverse these 356 votes. I now bet good money that Kloppenburg comes out on top.

Ashland county still has 6 precincts out. It is a small county, but Kloppenburg is way ahead overall in the county with 70.71%. Those six precincts alone, if they stay with the current trend, must shave off at least 100 votes from Prosser's lead without even considering Milwaukee or Dane counties.

So the wild card will be to see how absentee votes are being handled, also military overseas ballots - whether or not they have already been counted.

01 April 2011

The backlash has begun...

And the political pendulum will start to swing to the middle again, as is usual in US politics.

POLITICO, not exactly a democratic friendly and definitely not an Obama-friendly politics blog rag,
is reporting of defections away from the Republican party from stalwart police / fire union member:

In "Cops, Firefighters turn on GOP in labor fight,"  the most stunning quote is this:

Chuck Canterbury, the national president of the Fraternal Order of Police, said his members are “shocked” by the turn of events.

“Who are these evil teachers who teach your children, these evil policemen who protect them, these evil firemen who pull them from burning buildings? When did we all become evil?” said Canterbury, whose union endorsed Bush in 2000 and 2004 and John McCain in 2008.

He is traveling the country to rally FOP members to rise up against anti-labor laws in their states or in support of their colleagues in other states. “There is going to be a backlash,” said Canterbury, a former county police officer in South Carolina. “We are going to hold them accountable.”

Since then, Mark Sanders, president of the Ohio Association of Professional Fire Fighters, said he’s had Republican members “apologize” for backing Kasich. “They are never voting that way again,” said Sanders, a Cincinnati fire department lieutenant.

-and this- 
Mahlon Mitchell, president of the Wisconsin Professional Firefighters Association, said his members turned against Walker when the legislation went beyond expectations to include the ban on future collective bargaining rights.

“It’s not about money any more. It’s about taking away workers’ rights to sit down with employees. We couldn’t sit idly by and let that happen,” he said.

Vic Kamber, an expert on labor politics and adviser to unions, said Republicans are betting that voters – including conservative union members – will have forgotten the fight come 2012. “So much more will have happened by then,” he said.

But Mitchell and his colleagues in Ohio doubt that will happen given the intensity of the fight, the likelihood that it will drag on through recalls and referendums and the reductions in pay and pensions that could result if Republicans prevail.

“I think this is going to be something like we haven’t seen before,” said Mitchell. “I think this has scarred enough people that it will be remembered come Election Day.”