23 November 2010

WASHINGTON STATE mid-term post-mortem: FINAL ANALYSIS

WASHINGTON STATE FINAL UPDATE, 11/23/2010. Once again, I am doing this for the sake of a continuing statistical analysis. As of 23 November 2010, 10:15 GMT+1:

With only 1,548 votes left to count (two weeks ago it was 369,102, on the Tuesday following it was 237,163, on Wednesday it was 173,878, on Thursday it was 122,453, on 11/13, it was 91,878 ), Murray's lead has increased from +4.30% to +4.75%, exactly as predicted.

Murray: 1,314,023 (52.37%)
Rossi: 1,194,926 (47.63%)
Subtotal: 2,508,949
Margin: Murray +119,097 votes, +4.75% (119,097 / 2,508,949)

Of the 1,548 votes left to count, which will make 2,510,497 total for WA for 2010, those 1,548 votes make up 6 100ths of a percent (0.06%), so, even assuming a Rossi 70-30 win over the remaining votes, the percentages should stay the same and the margin will be either +4.74% or +4.75%, depending on end-total rounding.

On 11/13, I wrote about King County:

"Murray has expanded her margin to +29.50%. Very likely she will edge up close to a +30% margin in King County."

Indeed, Murray has landed at +29.84% in King County (Seattle).

Of the "Murray" counties, here are the votes left to tally:

Grays Harbor: all votes COUNTED: Murray 51.73 / Rossi 48.27 - +3.46 margin) - -0.10 for Murray since 11/13

Jefferson: 20 (currently Murray 63.01 / Rossi 36.99 - +26.02 margin)- - UNCHANGED from 11/13.

King: ALL VOTES COUNTED: Murray 64.92 / Rossi 35.08 - +29.85 margin- +0.35% margin gain for Murray over 11/13.

Pacific: 50 (currently Murray 53.15 / Rossi 46.85 - +6.30 margin)- UNCHANGED from 11/13.

Snohomish: all votes COUNTED: Murray 51.86 / Rossi 48.14 - +3.72 margin)- -0.04 margin loss for Murray since 11/13.

Thurston: 165 (currently Murray 56.14 / Rossi 43.86 - +12.28 margin)- +0.14% margin increase for Murray from 11/13.

Whatcom: all votes COUNTED:Murray 52.49 / Rossi 47.51 - +5.09 margin, +0.04% margin gain for Murray over 11/13.

Total votes left to count from "Murray" counties: 335. So, of 1,548 votes left to count overall, the other 1,213 votes are from "Rossi" counties. The "Rossi" counties with the most votes left out are Stevens and Walla Walla counties, with 780 votes total left to count, and those are both counties with +30% margins for Rossi.

In Spokane county: all votes COUNTED: Rossi 56.27 / Murray 43.75 - +12.52 margin, a -0.08% margin drop for Rossi since 11/13.

The ratio of votes from "Murray" counties left to count versus "Rossi" counties left to count was 2.97 to 1 on 11/13, it is now 1 to 3.62. This is the first time in the counting where more "Rossi" votes are out than Murray votes, but since all remaining votes only account for 0.06% of the total vote, it now makes no difference.

Two weeks ago, I wrote:


"Therefore, the statistical probability is high that Murray's vote margin will definitely go over 100,000 and her percentage margin could climb up to just under +4.5, 0.5% higher than I posted a couple of months ago."

Thursday two weeks ago I wrote:

"She is already over +100,000 votes in margin and will surely stay there. +4.5 at the end of this all looks more and more likely."

On 11/13, I wrote:

"She is now at +4.3. +4.5 is all but guaranteed now."

She now stands at +4.75%. The race was not even close at the end of the day. Just to compare and to put this into perspective, Murray won her re-election with a higher margin than George W. Bush won with in Ohio, Colorado and Nevada in both 2000 and 2004. She won better than either presidential candidate in Pennsylvania, Iowa, or Wisconsin in either 2000 or 2004. Her win in WA in 2010 was more solid than Obama's win in Florida or Ohio in 2008. It was larger than McCain's win in Montana in 2008. It comes very close to McCain's winning margin in Georgia in 2008, a state that became competitive but was never really in doubt.

--------------------------------

Just to be absolutely clear about this point: this race in 2010 in WA for the US Senate is not nearly as close as the races from 2000 (Cantwell vs. Gorton: Cantwell +0.09%) or from 1988 (Gorton vs. Lowry: Gordon +2.17%) or from 1986 (Adams vs. Gorton: Adams +1.98%). But it will be the 4th or 5th closest race in WA for the US Senate since 1962 (19 elections). If Murray climbs over +4.79% in margin, then it will be the 5th leanest election since 1962. It looks certain that it will be the 4th leanest senatorial election in WA since 1962.


So, for those who follow my statistics for 2012, remember this analysis. I have been spot on the mark most of the time, excluding MO in 2008 and the senatorials in NV and CO in 2010.

10 November 2010

WASHINGTON STATE mid-term post-mortem: a continuing analysis

Note: there are earlier analyses of WA on my prediction thread at USELECTIONATLAS.ORG.

WASHINGTON STATE UPDATE. Once again, I am doing this for the sake of a continuing statistical analysis. As of 10 November 2010, 09:32 GMT+1:

With 173,878 votes left to count (on Sunday, it was 369,102, on Tuesday there were 237,163 votes left to count), Murray has currently increased her margin over Rossi to +4.28%

Murray: 1,215,467 (52.14%)
Rossi: 1,115,505 (47.86%)
Subtotal: 2,330,972
Margin: Murray +99,962 votes, +4.28%



Of the 173,878 votes left to count, 80,000 of them are still left from King County to count. On Tuesday morning, there were still 125,000 votes in King County to count, so 45,000 of the 63,285 votes tallied up yesterday indeed came out of King county, where Murray has expanded her margin to +29.24%. Very likely she will move to a +30% margin in King County.

Of the "Murray" counties, here are the votes left to tally:

Grays Harbor: 15 (currently Murray 51.78 / Rossi 48.22 - +3.56 margin)

Jefferson: 350 (currently Murray 62.95 / Rossi 37.05 - +25.90 margin)

King: 80,000 (currently Murray 64.62 / Rossi 35.38 - +29.24 margin)

Pacific: 50 (currently Murray 53.15 / Rossi 46.85 - +6.30 margin)

Snohomish: 21,000 (currently Murray 51.83 / Rossi 48.17 - +3.66 margin)

Thurston: 6,000 (currently Murray 56.13 / Rossi 43.87 - +12.66 margin)

Whatcom: 1,900 (currently Murray 52.35 / Rossi 47.65 - +4.70 margin)

Total votes left to count from "Murray" counties: 109,315. The other 64,533 votes are from "Rossi" counties. The "Rossi" county with the most votes left out is:

Spokane: 26,000 (currently Rossi 56.24 / 43.76 - +12.48 margin). Rossi's margin has remained static in Spokane county, it has increased by +0.09%, within the realm of statistical noise.

The ratio of votes from "Murray" counties left to count versus "Rossi" counties left to count is 1.69 to 1. Therefore, the statistical probability is high that Murray's vote margin will definitely go over 100,000 and her percentage margin could climb up to just under +4.5, 0.5% higher than I posted a couple of months ago.

Just to be absolutely clear about this point: this race in 2010 in WA for the US Senate is not nearly as close as the races from 2000 (Cantwell vs. Gorton: Cantwell +0.09%) or from 1988 (Gorton vs. Lowry: Gordon +2.17%) or from 1986 (Adams vs. Gorton: Adams +1.98%). But it will be the 4th or 5th closest race in WA for the US Senate since 1962 (19 elections). Please also notice that names tend to appear three times or so in WA elections, for instance Gorton, Lowry, etc.....rematches in WA are a pretty normal instance.

The fact that the end-statistics for this race are moving to the outer edge of battleground territory mrgins for elections supports the claim that the democratic party has built a massive firewall for 2012 on the west coast: WA, OR, CA, HI, NV.

A fascinating note about COLORADO

I want to point to one piece of information that I do not think that anyone else has yet brought up, and this holds ominous information for the GOP in the state of Colorado:

Here is the county electoral map of COLORADO from the GE 2008.

Here is the county electoral map of COLORADO from the 2010 Senate race.

Take a hard look. The maps are almost identical. Only Chaffee County, which was a bare McCain win in 2008, was a bare Bennett win in 2010.

This is important information, for it further supports some claims I made in my analysis of CO, for instance, here in Part III of the analysis:

"How to predict as 2012 nears? Here is a table of the closest county by county races (margin: under +4%), the so-called „tipping point“ counties (winning margin: less than 4%):

Alphabetically:


CountyRegionObama %McCain %MarginO-shiftM-shiftPartisan Shift
USA
--
52.88%
45.61%
+7.27%
+4.62%
-5.12%
+9.73%
Colorado
--
53.66%
44.71%
+8.95%
+6.64%
-6.99%
+13.62%
----
--
------
------
------
-----
-----
Grand
C-NW
48.59%
49.69%
+1.10%
+5.97%
-6.30%
-12.27%
Chaffee
C-WC
49.00
49.12%
+0.12%
+6.06%
-6.46%
-12.52%
Garfield
NW
49.20%
49.21%
+0.01%
+4.51%
-4.66%
-9.17%


Of the 3 „tipping-point“ counties, all 3 were barely won by McCain . McCain lost slightly more on percent than Obama gained in all 3 counties . The largest prize of these tipping-point counties is Garfield county, which was analyzed in Part II. Garfield County has moved from a 17% hispanic population in 2000 to a 24% hispanic population in 2007.
The direction of THESE counties in 2012 will give us a very good early indication of who will win the state: Obama or his GOP opponent. All eyes will be on the two huge pick-ups from 2008: Jefferson and Arahapoe counties, but polling in areas like Ouray and also in Garfield county will also give us a strong indication of who will win the state. The other important detail to watch will be the amount of money put into the Colorado Springs media-market. If Obama is in good condition and begins an agressive campaign in El Paso county, then the GOP will be forced to do the same. If it does not, then this means that the GOP already knows that Colorado is lost for them. If however, the hispanic community sours on Obama and the GOP goes on the offensive to reclaim the pick-up counties from 2008, then this means that the GOP has a good chance of re-taking the state."

-----------------------

It is interesting to note that Chaffee county, one of the tipping point counties from 2008, actually flipped to the DEMS in the year of a massive GOP wave. The county map of COLORADO is, as far as I can tell, the most consistent map vis-a-vis 2008 of any state of size. The county configuration of CO that has been leading to a democratic majority in the state can be traced back to it's real beginnings in 1988. Assuming the increased hispanic voter turnout that I am sure will happen in 2012, CO is looking more and more as if it will become a solid BLUE state in 2012 and beyond.

The fact that Bennett able to eek out a narrow win in the face of a massive GOP onslaught, but that the electoral map of CO barely budged, tells me that in 2012, the GOP will have an uphill battle in this state. For all of those young voters who did not show up in 2010 will be there in 2012.

And the hispanic population in Garfield County is expected to go over 30% in 2012. The statistical probability that Obama picks up all three of these tipping point counties and wins the state 56-43, is very, very high.

I will be posting regularly on the potential battleground states for 2012. This is the FIRST posting in such a series of postings.

05 November 2010

The Seattle Times calls the Senate Race for Murray

They have declared her the winner. Three time loser Rossi has already conceded. I think we should call him the William Jennings Bryan of the west...

Just yesterday, I made the following statistical analysis on my map thread to USELECTIONATLAS.ORG:

As the counting in WASHINGTON STATE continues, Patty Murray has increased her lead over Dino Rossi. Currently, as of 04 Nov 2010, 04:30 EDT:

Murray 50.84%
Rossi 49.16%
Margin: Murray +1.68%

This was expected as returns from King county have yet to come in, and she is heavily favored there.

Specifically, 71% of the vote is in, but most of the extremely red counties east of the Cascade mountains have reported more than the largest counties in the state. Here a good sampling:

Small red counties:
Lincoln County (deep red) 83% - 4,200 votes total
Columbia County (deep red) 75% - 2,000 votes total
Pend Oreill County (deep deep red) 92% - roughly 5,000 votes total.
Asotin County (deep red) 76% , 6,500 votes
Kittitas County (red) 85% - 12,500 votes
Kliktikat County (moderate red) 86% - 7,300 votes


larger RED counties:

there are other very small red counties with less then 71% of the votes counted, but they are very small counties. The exception is Benton County, with 40,000 cast. In Benton county, only 63% of the vote has been counted and Rossi is landsliding here with +29%.

Grant county (deep red): 79% - 20,000 votes total

the largest counties in WA:

Pierce County (tossup, red tilt) 93% - the second largest county in WA. Pierce county is where Murray is underperforming vis-a-vis Obama in 2008. Obama won Pierce county with +12. Currently 210,000 votes cast. Rossi is ahead here by 0.5%. But his lead is so narrow and there is only 7% of the county left to count. If this trend will continue to the end, then Rossi only adds 95 votes to his margin in this county. This will barely make a dent in Murray's votes still expected to come out of King county.

Snohomish County (moderate blue) 67% - third largest county. Murray is also underperforming here vis-a-vis Obama in 2008. She is winning with 51.5%, a +3 margin. Obama won here with 58%, a +18% margin. Currently 151,669 votes counted. But if she at least maintains here to the end, then she adds another 2,283 votes to her margin in Snohomish county, which will wipe out Rossi's edge in Clark county.

Clark County (moderate red) 85%, fourth largest county. Currently, 117,000 votes cast, Rossi is winning by +7.0. Obama won here by +6. If the trend continues to the end, then Rossi increases his margin in this county by 1,300 votes, a little more than half of Murray's expected margin gain (votewise) in Snohomish county.

King County (Seattle) 62% - the largest county in WA; more than 25% of the entire state vote will come from this county.

Murray is landsliding here with +25.2%, 62.6% to 37.4%. Till now, 418,937 votes have been counted in King county. 418,937 is 62% of 675,705. If Murray maintains this percentage and margin, then King county would look like this when all the votes are cast:

Murray 422,991
Rossi 252,714
Vote margin: 170,277

current (actual) vote margin in King County:

Murray +105,664

So, if conditions stay absolutely the same in King County, then Murray will add another 64,613 votes to her total. Obviously, Murray is currently also underperforming here. Obama won King county with almost 70%, a +42% margin over McCain. Those 64,000+ votes to pad her margin will more than wipe out any gains that Rossi will still get east of the Cascades.

I could extrapolate every county, but this would be quatsch. Without knowing exactly which precincts are out and their tendencies, it would be a shot in the dark. The big point is that a lot of King county is still out, and that will more than make up for the difference in red counties with votes yet to come in.


She may go as high as +2.5 at the end of the day. Wait and see.


-------------------------------------------------

And indeed, her margin as of today is: +2.5

SMILE.

When the dust has settled...

...from the mid-term elections, I will be doing an intensive analysis of:

1.) The Tea-Party candidates who won, and those who lost.

2.) The bad polling in a number of states and the worst perpetrators.

3.) Predictions on where the congress, now split, will go.

There were two outstanding articles about Obama, Capitalism and GM that came out. Hold onto your pants:

The Economist has published an APOLOGY to President Obama.

And this editorial pretty much says it all.

02 November 2010

Mid-term Election, final prognostications

Senate: When all the votes are counted: 51 D - 49 R.


On 10/29, I posted a trend-table reflecting the changes in polling averages for key senate seats between 10/14 and 10/29. Since RCP and pollster.com use slightly differing methodologies, I have taken the mean value (average) of those two and compared them.
Here is how things looked on 10/29:

State RCP 10/14 P.COM 10/14 Mean RCP 10/29 P.COM 10/29 Mean Diff Trend
NV
D +0.5
D +0.2
D +0.35
R +4.0
R +3.0
R +3.50
R +3.85
GOP
IL
D +0.5
R +0.7
R +0.10
R +2.8
R +1.2
R +2.00
R +1.80
GOP
WV
+/- 0.0
D +0.8
D +0.40
D +4.8
D +1.7
D +3.25
D +2.85
DEM
CO
R +3.0
R +3.9
R +3.45
R +1.6
R +1.2
R +1.40
R -2.05
DEM
WA
D +4.0
D +3.2
D +3.6
D +1.6
D +0.9
D +1.25
D -2.35
GOP









CA
D +3.7
D +4.4
D +4.05
D +6.5
D +4.5
D +5.50
D +1.45
DEM
KY
R +5.3
R +7.1
R +6.20
R +9.8
R +7.0
R +8.40
R +2.20
GOP
PA
R +7.5
R +6.2
R +6.85
R +4.0
R +3.1
R +3.55
R -3.30
DEM
WI
R +7.3
R +7.8
R +7.55
R +6.6
R +8.0
R +7.30
R -0.25
-static-
MO
R +9.4
R +9.2
R +9.3
R +10.4
R +7.6
R +9.00
R -0.30
-static-
CT
--
--
--
D +11.0
D +9.8
D +10.40
--
---
NC
R +15.7
R +13.1
R +14.40
R +11.8
R +13.8
R +12.80
R -1.60
DEM
OH
R +15.2
R +15.1
R +15.15
R +17.8
R +16.0
R +16.90
R +1.75
GOP
FL
R +16.2
R +14.1
R +15.15
R +13.3
R +13.7
R +13.50
R -1.65
IND
DE
D +18.3
D +19.1
D +18.70
D +15.8
D +14.4
D +15.10
D -3.60
GOP


And now, here is how things have changed from 10/29 to 11/02. I have adjusted the table to go in ascending order of mean value for 11/02, meaning from the statistically narrowest race (WA) to the widest blowout of the states analyzed (OH). A trend in BOLD means a shift in trend from one party to the other in the last 5 days. Note: A trend does not guarantee a win for the team that is trending. A trend is always in context of the margin itself. For instance, in DE, the mean is trending +1.10 in the direction of the GOP, but Coons is still stomping O'Donnell by a (perfectly synchronized, I might add) a +14.00 mean.

First, take a look at the numbers.


State RCP 10/29 P.COM 10/29 Mean RCP 11/02 P.COM 11/02 Mean Diff Trend
WA
D +1.6
D +0.9
D +1.25
D +0.3
D +0.7
D +0.50
-0.75
GOP
CO
R +1.6
R +1.2
R +1.40
R +3.0
R +1.6
R +2.40
+1.00
GOP
IL
R +2.8
R +1.2
R +2.00
R +3.3
R +1.7
R +2.50
+0.50
GOP
NV
R +4.0
R +3.0
R +3.50
R +2.7
R +3.0
R +2.85
-0.65
DEM
WV
D +4.8
D +1.7
D +3.25
D +4.5
D +3.0
D +3.75
+0.50
DEM
PA
R +4.0
R +3.1
R +3.55
R +4.5
R +4.0
R +4.25
+0.70
GOP
--
------
------
---
---
---
---
---
---
CA
D +6.5
D +4.5
D +5.00
D +6.5
D +6.0
D +5.75
+0.75
DEM
CT
D +11.0
D +9.8
D +10.40
D +8.7
D +6.3
D +7.50
-2.90
GOP
WI
R +6.6
R +8.0
R +7.30
R +7.7
R +7.8
R +7.75
+0.45
GOP
KY
R +9.8
R +7.0
R +8.40
R +11.0
R +8.4
R +9.70
+1.30
GOP
MO
R +10.4
R +7.6
R +9.00
R +10.4
R +9.2
R +9.90
+0.90
GOP
NC
R +11.8
R +13.8
R +12.80
R +12.8
R +12.5
R +12.65
-0.15
-static-
DE
D +15.8
D +14.4
D +15.10
D +14.0
D +14.0
D +14.00
-1.10
GOP
FL
R +13.3
R +13.7
R +13.50
R +17.0
R +14.5
R +15.75
+2.25
GOP
OH
R +17.8
R +16.0
R +16.90
R +18.8
R +17.8
R +18.30
+1.40
GOP


On paper, WA no appears to be the closest race out there, and indeed on election night, this could be so. But we may not know for up to 3 weeks. Earlyvoting.net has an outstanding small write-up on this:

I have been communicating with friends and colleagues in Washington about how quickly ballots arrive and are counted in the state.   The figures are fascinating, and if it is true that the Washington race may end up being crucial in determining control of the Senate, then the national media has better be prepared to wait for results.
Past history has been that 10% of WA voters return their vote by mail ballots immediately upon receipt. 30-40% of the ballots are returned by the Friday before the election (as of today, 38% of the ballots have been processed), and by Monday, approximately 50% of ballots will have been cast.
The remaining 50% come in Tuesday through Friday. And because Washington is a big military state, UOCAVA ballots arrive for weeks.
The 8pm returns from Washington will be meaningless.  Firm conclusions about the Washington Senate race will not be possible until Wednesday or Thursday at the earliest.  And it's quite possible that we'll have to wait the full 21 days until Washington certifies its results.“

In reality, however, CO may be the closest race going on. Not only that, CO is expected to have 70% voter turnout in this year, bursting all records from the past for mid-term elections. The GOTV in CO will make all the difference in the world.

What the table does confirm is the GOP wave making a roughly 1.20% expanse on the average across the board going into the finish. Look at OH, KY, MO, CO (not FL, it is hard to gauge a three-man race against a two man race). Also notice that the margin average in OH is only somewhat slightly ahead of the projected generic of GOP +15 that gallup produced.

For the full analysis, go to my last map at USELECTIONATLAS.ORG