30 March 2009

Obama in the rankings - state per state

Obama's placement in the national standings has already been analyzed.


As promised, here is his placement per state, analyzed first for all parties, then only for the democrats, both for winning percent and then again for winning margin. That makes for 4 analysis tables.


The tables are arranged in descending order of election cycle and then alphabetically within each cycle. The percentages and margins are color coded: red= republican, blue = democrat.


Obama's winning percentages and margins are compared with past winning percents and margins and are listed in bold.


Obama's losing percentages and margins are compared with percents and margins (possibly losing, possibly winning, e.g., AZ) and are listed in italics.


How to interpret:


for winning percentages and margins: Obama's percentages are the best performance for the democratic candidate in 2008 since the year X (this means that the percentage from year X is HIGHER than Obama's), which means that the difference should be a negative value, except in the case of all-time records. In the case of cross-party shifts, the margin difference can be a positive value.


for losing percentages and margins: Obama's losing percentages are the best performance for the democratic candidate in 2008 since the year X (this means that the percentage from year X is HIGHER than Obama's), but his losing margin is the smallest losing margin since year X, for instance, IN.


The farther back we must go in history to find a better percentage or margin, the more impressive the win from 2008, i.e., Obama's percentage win in his home state of IL is the best showing of any candidate from either party since the year 1920, which means Obama did better here than Reagan, Nixon, Eisenhower and Roosevelt.


The superlative of superlatives: DC, where Obama set an all-time record in all four analysis tables. This makes Obama the second candidate in history to have won a state with 90% or more of the popular vote (after FDR). No republican has ever won a state with more than 78.22% of the PV (Coolidge, VT, 1924). In fact, only five candidates in US history have won a state win more than 80% of the PV, and four of them are democrats: FDR, Thurmond (MS, 1948, States Rights Party), Johnson, Kerry and Obama.


But there are other surprise superlatives:


Highest percentage win of all time among democratic candidates: DC, DE, IL, VT.

Highest margin of all time among democratic candidates: DC, DE, IL, VT.


When we compare Obama's winning percentage in the 51 „states“ to candidates from both parties, then the correlation is pretty well evenly split between the years 2004 (10 states), 1996 (5 states), 1988 (6 states), 1984 (6 states) and 1964 (7 states). However, when we limit the seach parameters to democratic candidates only, then the results change dramatically. In this case, the year 1964 becomes the major point of comparison, with a correlation in 19 states, and then 2004 and 1996 (with 5 states apiece). This makes sense, as 1964 represents the largest democratic landslide (by percentage) in US history.


When we compare Obama's winning margins, the field shifts again, and radically, with 1996 showing the largest correlation to 2008 in 17 states, and again in 18 states when we narrow to parameters to democratic candidates only. This makes sense, as Bill Clinton won both elections (1992, 1996) in 3-way races, which resulted in generally lower winning percentages, but rich winning margins.


Obama 2008, by percent, comparison to both parties:


State

Obama %

Best since

Former %

difference

DC

92.46%

all-time

89.18% (2004)

+3.28%

 

 

 

 

 

FL

50.91%

2004

52.10%

1.19%

IN

49.91%

2004

59.94%

10.03%

LA

39.93%

2004

42.22%

-2.29%

MA

61.80%

2004

61.94%

-0.14%

NC

49.70%

2004

56.02%

6.32%

OK

34.35%

2004

34.43%

-0.08%

TN

41.83%

2004

42.53%

-0.70%

VA

52.63%

2004

53.68%

-1.05%

WV

42.57%

2004

43.20%

-0.63%

 

 

 

 

 

KY

41.15%

2000

41.37%

-0.22%

 

 

 

 

 

AL

38.74%

1996

43.16%

-4.42%

AZ

44.91%

1996

46.52%

-1.61%

MS

43.00%

1996

44.08%

-1.08%

TX

43.64%

1996

43.83%

-0.19%

WY

32.54%

1996

36.84%

-4.30%

 

 

 

 

 

ID

35.96%

1992

42.03%

6.07%

 

 

 

 

 

IA

53.93%

1988

54.71%

-0.78%

KS

41.57%

1988

42.56%

-0.99%

NV

55.15%

1988

58.86%

-3.71%

NH

54.13%

1988

62.49%

-8.36%

OH

51.38%

1988

55.00%

-3.62%

SD

44.75%

1988

46.51%

-1.76%

 

 

 

 

 

CO

53.66%

1984

63.44%

9.78%

CT

60.59%

1984

60.73%

0.14%

ME

57.71%

1984

60.83%

3.12%

MI

57.37%

1984

59.23%

1.86%

NJ

57.17%

1984

60.09%

-2.92%

NM

56.91%

1984

59.70%

-2.79%

 

 

 

 

 

GA

46.90%*

1980

55.76%

-8.86%

SC

44.90%

1980

48.04%

-3.14%

 

 

 

 

 

MN

54.06%

1976

54.90%

-0.84%

ND

44.47%

1976

45.80%

-1.33%

 

 

 

 

 

PA

54.48%

1972

59.11%

-4.63%

 

 

 

 

 

AK

37.89%

1968

42.65%

-4.76

RI

63.13%

1968

64.03%

-0.90%

UT

34.27%

1968

37.07%

-2.80%

 

 

 

 

 

HI

71.85%

1964

78.76%

-6.91%

MD

61.92%

1964

65.47%

-3.55%

NE

41.60%

1964

52.61%

-11.01

NY

62.80%

1964

68.56%

+5.76%

OR

56.75%

1964

63.72%

-6.97%

WA

57.43%

1964

61.97%

-4.54%

WI

56.22%

1964

62.09%

+5.87%

 

 

 

 

 

MO

49.25%

1960

49.74% (Nixon)

0.49%

MT

47.17%

1960

48.60%

-1.43%

 

 

 

 

 

VT

67.46%

1956

72.16%

-4.70%

 

 

 

 

 

CA

60.95%

1936

66.95%

-6.00%

DE

61.94%

1928

65.03%

-3.09%

IL

61.92%

1920

67.81%

-5.89%


*highest losing percentage for a democratic candidate in GA history.

Obama 2008, by percent, comparison among democrats:


State

Obama %

Best since

Former %

difference

DC

92.46%

all-time

89.18% (2004)

+3.28%

DE

61.94%

all-time

60.95% (1964)

+0.99%

IL

61.92%

all-time

59.47% (1964)

+2.45%

VT

67.46%

all-time

66.30% (1964)

+1.16%

 

 

 

 

 

LA

39.93%

2004

42.22%

-2.29%

MA

61.80%

2004

61.94%

-0.14%

OK

34.35%

2004

34.43%

-0.08%

TN

41.83%

2004

42.53%

-0.70%

WV

42.57%

2004

43.20%

-0.63%

 

 

 

 

 

KY

41.15%

2000

41.37%

-0.22%

 

 

 

 

 

AL

38.74%

1996

43.16%

-4.42%

AZ

44.91%

1996

46.52%

-1.61%

MS

43.00%

1996

44.08%

-1.08%

TX

43.64%

1996

43.83%

-0.19%

WY

32.54%

1996

36.84%

-4.30%

 

 

 

 

 

ID

35.96%

1988

36.01%

-0.05%

IA

53.93%

1988

54.71%

-0.78%

KS

41.57%

1988

42.56%

-0.99%

SD

44.75%

1988

46.51%

-1.76%

 

 

 

 

 

GA

46.90%*

1980

55.76%

-8.86%

SC

44.90%

1980

48.04%

-3.14%

 

 

 

 

 

FL

50.91%

1976

51.93%

-1.02%

MO

49.25%

1976

51.10%

-0.85%

NC

49.70%

1976

55.27%

+5.56%

ND

44.47%

1976

45.80%

-1.33%

 

 

 

 

 

AK

37.89%

1968

42.65%

-4.76%

RI

63.13%

1968

64.03%

-0.90%

UT

34.27%

1968

37.07%

-2.80%

 

 

 

 

 

CO

53.66%

1964

61.27%

-7.61%

CT

60.59%

1964

67.81%

-7.22

HI

71.85%

1964

78.76%

-6.91%

IN

49.91%

1964

55.98%

-6.07%

ME

57.71%

1964

68.84%

-11.13%

MD

61.92%

1964

65.47%

-3.55%

MI

57.37%

1964

66.70%

-9.33%

NE

41.60%

1964

52.61%

-11.01

NV

55.15%

1964

58.58%

-3.43%

NH

54.13%

1964

63.64%

-9.51%

NJ

57.17%

1964

65.61%

-8.44%

NM

56.91%

1964

59.22%

-2.31%

NY

62.80%

1964

68.56%

-5.76%

OH

51.38%

1964

62.94%

-11.56%

OR

56.75%

1964

63.72%

-6.97%

PA

54.48%

1964

64.92%

-10.44%

VA

52.63%

1964

53.54%

-0.91%

WA

57.43%

1964

61.97%

-4.54%

WI

56.22%

1964

62.09%

+5.87%

 

 

 

 

 

MT

47.17%

1960

48.60%

-1.43%

 

 

 

 

 

CA

60.95%

1936

66.95%

-6.00%



Obama Margin 2008, comparison to all parties:



State

Obama margin

Best since

Former margin

difference

DC

+85.92%

All-time

+79.84% (2004)

+6.08%

 

 

 

 

 

FL

+2.81%

2004

+5.01%

+7.82%

IN

+1.03%

2004

+20.68%

+21.71%

LA

-18.63

2004

-14.51

-4.12%

NC

+0.33%

2004

+12.43%

+12.76%

OK

-31.29%

2004

-31.14%

-0.15%

TN

-15.07%

2004

-14.27%

-0.80%

VA

+6.30%

2004

+8.20%

+14.50%

WV

-13.11%

2004

-12.86%

-0.25%

 

 

 

 

 

AL

-21.58%

2000

-14.88%

-6.70%

AZ

-8.48%

2000

-6.28%

-2.20%

KY

-16.22%

2000

-15.13%

-1.09%

MA

+25.81%

2000

+27.30%

-1.49%

NJ

+15.54%

2000

+15.83%

-0.29%

RI

+27.92%

2000

+29.08%

-1.16%

 

 

 

 

 

AK

-21.54%

1996

-17.53%

-4.01%

GA

-5.20%

1996

-1.17%

-4.03%

ID

-25.34%

1996

-18.54%

-6.80%

IA

+9.53%

1996

+10.34%

-0.81%

ME

+17.32%

1996

+20.86%

-3.54%

MN

+10.24%

1996

+16.14%

-5.90%

MS

-13.17%

1996

-5.13%

-8.04%

MT

-2.26%

1996

-2.88%

-0.62%

NH

+9.61%

1996

+9.95%

-0.34%

NY

+26.69%

1996

+28.86%

-2.17%

ND

-8.60%

1996

-6.81%

-2.21%

OH

+4.58%

1996

+6.36%

-1.78%

SC

-8.98%

1996

-6.04%

-2.94%

SD

-8.41%

1996

-3.46%

-4.95%

TX

-11.76%

1996

-4.93%

-6.83%

UT

-28.07%

1996

-21.07%

-7.00%

WY

-32.24%

1996

-12.98%

-19.26%

 

 

 

 

 

KS

-14.93%

1992

-5.14%

-9.79%

 

 

 

 

 

NV

+12.49%

1988

+20.94%

+33.43%

 

 

 

 

 

CO

+8.95%

1984

+28.32%

+37.27%

MI

+16.46%

1984

+18.99%

+35.45%

NM

+15.13%

1984

+20.48%

+35.61%

 

 

 

 

 

PA

+10.32%

1972

+19.98%

+30.30%

WA

+17.11%

1972

+18.28%

+35.39%

 

 

 

 

 

CT

+22.37%

1964

+35.72%

-13.35%

HI

+45.26%

1964

+57.52%

-12.26%

MD

+25.44%

1964

+30.94%

-5.50%

NE

-14.93%

1964

+5.21%

-20.14%

OR

+16.35%

1964

+27.75%

-11.40%

WI

+13.90%

1964

+24.35%

-10.45%

 

 

 

 

 

MO

-0.13%

1956

+0.22%

-0.35%

VT

+37.01%

1956

+44.35%

+81.36%

 

 

 

 

 

CA

+24.03%

1936

+35.26%

-11.23

DE

+25.00%

1928

+30.42%

-5.42%

IL

+25.13%

1924

+35.48%

-10.35%




Obama Margin 2008, comparison among democrats:



State

Obama margin

Best since

Former margin

difference

DC

+85.92%

All-time

+79.84% (2004)

+6.08%

DE

+25.00%

All-time

+22.17% (1964)

+2.83%

IL

+25.13%

All-time

+18.94% (1964)

+6.19%

VT

+37.01%

All-time

+32.61 (1964)

+4.40%

 

 

 

 

 

LA

-18.63

2004

-14.51

-4.12%

OK

-31.29%

2004

-31.14%

-0.15%

TN

-15.07%

2004

-14.27%

-0.80%

WV

-13.11%

2004

-12.86%

-0.25%

 

 

 

 

 

AL

-21.58%

2000

-14.88%

-6.70%

AZ

-8.48%

2000

-6.28%

-2.20%

KY

-16.22%

2000

-15.13%

-1.09%

MA

+25.81%

2000

+27.30%

-1.49%

NJ

+15.54

2000

+15.83

-0.29%

RI

+27.92%

2000

+29.08%

-1.16%

 

 

 

 

 

AK

-21.54%

1996

-17.53%

-4.01%

FL

+2.81

1996

+5.70%

-2.89%

GA

-5.20%

1996

-1.17%

-4.03%

ID

-25.34%

1996

-18.54%

-6.80%

IA

+9.53%

1996

+10.34%

-0.81%

ME

+17.32%

1996

+20.86%

-3.54%

MN

+10.24%

1996

+16.14%

-5.90%

MS

-13.17%

1996

-5.13%

-8.04%

MT

-2.26%

1996

-2.88%

-0.62%

NH

+9.61

1996

+9.95

-0.34%

NY

+26.69%

1996

+28.86%

-2.17%

ND

-8.60%

1996

-6.81%

-2.21%

OH

+4.58%

1996

+6.36%

-1.78%

SC

-8.98%

1996

-6.04%

-2.94%

SD

-8.41%

1996

-3.46%

-4.95%

TX

-11.76%

1996

-4.93%

-6.83%

UT

-28.07%

1996

-21.07%

-7.00%

WY

-32.24%

1996

-12.98%

-19.26%

 

 

 

 

 

KS

-14.93%

1992

-5.14%

-9.79%

 

 

 

 

 

NC

+0.33%

1976

+11.05%

-10.72%

 

 

 

 

 

CO

+8.95%

1964

+23.07%

-14.12

CT

+22.37%

1964

+35.72%

-13.35%

HI

+45.26%

1964

+57.52%

-12.26%

IN

+1.03%

1964

+12.42%

-11.39%

MD

+25.44%

1964

+30.94%

-5.50%

MI

+16.46%

1964

+33.61%

-17.15%

NE

-14.93%

1964

+5.21%

-20.14%

NV

+12.49%

1964

+17.16%

-4.67%

NM

+15.13%

1964

+18.98%

-3.85%

OR

+16.35%

1964

+27.75%

-11.40%

PA

+10.32%

1964

+30.22%

-19.90%

VA

+6.30%

1964

+7.36%

-1.06%

WA

+17.11%

1964

+24.59%

-7.48%

WI

+13.90%

1964

+24.35%

-10.45%

 

 

 

 

 

MO

-0.13%

1956

+0.22%

-0.35%

 

 

 

 

 

CA

+24.03%

1936

+35.26%

-11.23