10 December 2008

National Popular Vote Update 12/10 - over 131 million

Currently, Obama's national average, which was at +7.16 on 12/06, has moved to +7.25, a margin jump of +0.09 in four days: The current national percentages and margin are pretty much in the middle between Obama's win in VA (+6.30) and CO (+8.95) and is now coming closer and closer to the national poll averages from 11/03. His current percentage, historically ranked, comes closest to Ulysses B. Grant from 1868 (52.66%) and his percentages comes closes to FDR from 1944 (+7.49). I will be doing a large rankings work up, it will be posted as soon as the FINAL CANVASS is done.


We have now crossed over the 131 million vote mark. And more than 9,000,000 more voters went to the polls in 2008 than in 2004.


With only 5 states still posting unofficial numbers and a sixth state (MA) still pending for some mysterious reason, and with 29 states having posted FINAL numbers but no official canvass (yet), I suspect that there are at the most no more than 100,000, maybe 150,000 votes left to tally. California will put out it's official CANVASS on 12/13 and if there are any major shifts in numbers, they will probably be the most noticable here. Dr. Michael McDonald from George Mason University has an EXCELLENT website about this and his tracking of the numbers is excellent.


If Obama holds at +7.25, then the national partisan shift from 2004 to 2008 would be: +9.71 (+7.25 - (-2.46) = +9.71)


The final national polls on 11/03-11/04 had an average of +7.54, and I made the following prediction:


Obama: 52.77%

McCain:45.23%

Other: 2%


As of 12/10, 16:00 EDT, the PV and percentages:



Candidate

Pop. Vote

%

Pop. Margin

% Margin

Total

131,309,422

100.00%

--

--

Obama (D)

69,445,987

52.89%

+9,522,569

+7.25%

McCain (R)

59,923,418

45.64%

--

--

Other:

1,940,017

1.44%

--

--


Comparison - my projection to current results:


Candidate

Current %

Bonncaruso's prediction:

Difference:

Obama (D)

52.89%

52.77%

-0.12%

McCain (R)

45.64%

45.23%

+0.41

All others

1.48%

2.00%

+0.52%

Margin

+7.25

+7.54

+0.29



Comparison to 2004:


Year

Democratic:

Republican:

All Others:

Total:

2008

69,445,987

59,923,418

1,940,017

131,309,422

2004

59,028,439

62,040,610

1,224,499

122,293,548

 

 

 

 

 

Difference:

+10,417,548

-2,117,192

+715,518

+9,015,874


Tendency: Obama shot past my predicted 52.77% (ah, the joy was but short lived), but overall, my prediction is about as close to the bullseye as you can get: I am currently off by 0.12 on Obama's %, 0.29 on the margin and 0.41 on McCain's percentage – all under one half of a point.

06 December 2008

POPULAR VOTE UPDATE 12/06 - approaching 131 million nationally

THE NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE UPDATE:


Currently, Obama's national average, which was at +6.98 on 12/02, has moved to +7.16, a margin jump of +0.18 in four days: The current national percentages and margin are pretty much in the middle between Obama's win in VA (+6.30) and CO (+8.95) and is now coming closer and closer to the national poll averages from 11/03.


If Obama holds at +7.16, then the national partisan shift from 2004 to 2008 would be: +9.62 (+7.16 - (-2.46) = +9.62)


The final national polls on 11/03-11/04 had an average of +7.54, and I made the following prediction:


Obama: 52.77%

McCain:45.23%

Other: 2%


As of 12/06, 08:00 EDT, the PV and percentages:



Candidate

Pop. Vote

%

Pop. Margin

% Margin

Total

130,700,139

100.00%

--

--

Obama (D)

69,077,276

52.85%

+9,361,935

+7.16%

McCain (R)

59,715,341

45.69%

 

 

Other:

1,907,522

1.46%

 

 


Comparison - my projection to current results:


Candidate

Current %

Bonncaruso's prediction:

Difference:

Obama (D)

52.85%

52.77%

+0.08%

McCain (R)

45.69%

45.23%

+0.46%

All others

1.46%

2.00%

-0.54%



Comparison to 2004:


Year

Democratic:

Republican:

All Others:

Total:

2008

69,077,276

59,715,341

1,907,522

130,700,139

2004

59,028,439

62,040,610

1,224,499

122,293,548

 

 

 

 

 

Difference:

+10,048,837

-2,325,269

+683,023

+8,406,591


Tendency: Obama has moved above the 52.77% I predicted. Good for him, bad for me :) :) So, I have currently missed his winning percentage by 0.08%, but am now less than one half point away from McCain's percentage. If this trend continues for the remaining official results/canvasses, then Obama could rise to 52.87%-52.88% and McCain may sink to 45.67%-45.68%, so the margin may hit an even +7.20 for Obama.


Other than CA and TX, most of the big states have either final results or official canvasses. I suspect that there are less than 500,000 votes remaining outstanding, but we will probably go over 131 million votes in 2008. CA will put out it's official canvass on 12/13.

02 December 2008

Election results by state - preliminary report No. 4

This is the fourth preliminary report on the GE from 2008. The first report is here to read. And the second report is here to read. Here's the third report.


Obama won 29 states + NE-02. (365 EV)

McCain won 22 states. (173 EV)


MO, which narrowly went for McCain, loses it's bellwether status to OH.


If we are to be completely exact, Obama won one of three CDs in NE but only one of five electors. So, to calculate, it would be fair to split the difference. The average between one-third and one-fifth is: one-fourth. So, we can say that Obama won 25% of NE and McCain won the other 75% and therefore:


Obama won 29.25 “states” (57.35% of the Union, in terms of number of states).

McCain won 21.75 “states” (42.65% of the Union, in terms of number of states).


As of December 2, the following states have made their results final: AL, CT, DE, DC, FL, GA, HI, ID, IA, KY, LA, ME, MD, MI, MN, MS, MT, NH, NM, NC, RI, SC, SD, TX, UT, VT, WY. That makes 27 out of 51 states, or 52.94% of the Union. But only 4 of those states have certified their results: AL, DC, MT, VT.


-------------------------------------------------------------------



First: THE NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE (continuing):


Currently, Obama's national average, which last week was at +6.72 in mid November, has moved up to at least +6.98, a margin jump of +0.25: The state in the Union that comes the closes to mirroring this average and also the percentage ranges for the two candidates is VA.


If Obama holds at +6.98, then the national partisan shift from 2004 to 2008 would be: +9.44 (+6.98 - (-2.46) = +9.44)


The final national polls on 11/03-11/04 had an average of +7.54, and I made the following prediction:


Obama: 52.77%

McCain:45.23%

Other: 2%


As of 12/02, 06:00 EDT, the PV and percentages:



Candidate

Pop. Vote

%

Pop. Margin

% Margin

Total

129,805,369

100.00%

--

--

Obama (D)

68,496,622

52.77%

+9,061,299

+6.98%

McCain (R)

59,435,023

45.79%

 

 

Other:

1,824,704

1.44%

 

 


Comparison - my projection to current results:


Candidate

Current %

Bonncaruso's prediction:

Difference:

Obama (D)

52.77%

52.77%

+/-0.00%

McCain (R)

45.79%

45.23%

+0.56

All others

1.44%

2.00%

-0.56%



Comparison to 2004:


Year

Democratic:

Republican:

All Others:

Total:

2008

68,496,622

59,435,023

1,824,704

129,805,369

2004

59,028,439

62,040,610

1,224,499

122,293,548

 

 

 

 

 

Difference:

+9,467,883

-2,605,587

+649,525

+7,511,821


Tendency: Obama stabilizing at 52.77%. As far as I can see, I am the only blogger in the entire net who predicted this percentage, and currently, it is right on the money.


--------------------------------------------------------



Second, here is a comparison of the current results from Nov. 4, 2008, in order of the winning margin for each state, in comparison to the final poll convergence numbers (Diff. 1) and to the averages from the GE in 2004 (Diff. 2). The table is arranged according to winning margin, from Obama's largest down to his leanest, then from McCain's leanest to his largest.


NOTE: due to rounding from 1/1000th of a % to 1/100th of a %, there are examples where the margin % appears 0.01% off from the difference between Obama's % and McCain's %. I don't just subtract the losing percent from the winning percent. I take the real vote margin and divide it by the total votes to calculate the margin. So, the slight deviations you may see here and there are indeed CORRECT. For instance: AL, AZ, CA, MT, TN, TX, UT, VA


The states shaded in orange have certified their results.


St.

EV

BO-%

JM-%

Margin

PC 12

Diff. 1

2004

Diff. 2

1948-2004

DC

3

92.46

06.53

85.93

69.00

+16.93

79.84

+6.09

69.56

HI

4

71.85

26.58

45.27

36.00

+9.27

8.74

+36.53

10.01

VT

3

67.46

30.45

37.01

27.00

+10.01

20.14

+16.87

6.93

RI

4

63.13

35.21

27.92

18.10

+9.82

20.75

+7.17

16.23

MA

12

62.03

36.22

25.81

21.33

+4.48

25.16

+0.65

14.75

NY

31

62.16

36.70

25.46

29.00

-3.54

18.29

+7.17

5.42

MD

10

61.92

36.48

25.44

17.30

+8.14

12.98

+12.46

2.85

IL

21

61.92

36.78

25.13

24.90

+0.23

10.34

+14.81

0.09

DE

3

61.94

36.95

25.00

20.70

+4.30

7.59

+17.41

0.05

CA

55

61.02

37.10

23.91

24.00

-0.09

9.95

+13.96

0.96

CT

7

60.71

38.11

22.59

21.33

+1.26

10.37

+12.22

0.03

WA

11

57.46

40.34

17.12

14.60

+2.52

7.18

+9.94

0.97

MI

17

57.37

40.92

16.46

14.44

+2.02

3.42

+13.04

0.42

ME

4

57.71

40.38

17.32

17.15

+0.17

9.00

+11.32

4.67

OR

7

56.76

40.41

16.35

15.57

+0.78

4.16

+12.19

1.58

NM

5

56.98

41.79

15.19

9.26

+5.93

0.79

+15.92

4.10

NJ

15

56.82

42.12

14.70

16.00

-1.30

6.68

+8.51

3.43

WI

10

56.22

42.31

13.90

11.34

+2.56

0.38

+13.52

1.83

NV

5

55.15

42.65

12.50

6.83

+5.67

2.59

+15.09

9.94

MN

10

54.06

43.82

10.24

12.00

-1.76

3.48

+6.76

6.15

PA

21

54.54

44.41

10.13

7.30

+2.83

2.50

+7.63

0.25

NH

4

54.13

44.52

9.61

10.43

-0.82

1.37

+8.24

11.34

IA

7

53.70

44.21

9.49

12.75

-3.26

0.67

+10.16

3.84

CO

9

53.51

44.86

8.65

6.62

+2.03

4.67

+13.32

9.41

VA

13

52.62

46.33

6.30

4.93

+1.37

8.20

+14.50

10.14

OH

20

50.95

47.25

3.70

2.31

+1.39

2.11

+5.81

5.15

FL

27

50.91

48.10

2.81

1.79

+1.02

5.01

+7.82

8.65

IN

11

49.91

48.88

1.03

1.18

+2.21

20.68

+21.71

13.29

NE-02*

1*

50.61

49.39

0.48

4.00

+4.48

--

--

--

NC

15

49.70

49.38

0.32

0.62

-0.30

12.43

+12.75

4.13

--

--

 

 

 

 

--

--

--

--

MO

11

49.26

49.43

0.17

0.46

-0.29

7.20

-7.03

0.21

MT

3

47.17

49.43

2.26

1.66

+0.60

20.50

-18.24

9.54

GA

15

46.95

52.16

5.21

3.85

+1.36

16.60

-11.39

3.17

SD

3

44.75

53.16

8.41

7.50

+0.91

21.47

-13.06

13.31

AZ

10

44.47

53.08

8.51

4.43

+4.08

10.47

-1.96

14.60

ND

3

44.62

53.25

8.60

1.34

+9.94

27.36

-18.76

18.31

SC

8

44.90

53.87

8.86

12.55

-3.69

17.08

-8.22

7.47

TX

34

43.66

55.43

11.76

13.00

-1.24

22.86

-11.10

5.49

WV

5

42.57

55.68

13.11

7.66

+5.45

12.86

+0.25

3.81

MS

6

43.05

56.12

13.08

10.50

+2.58

19.69

-6.61

9.66

TN

11

41.81

56.90

15.08

14.00

+1.08

14.27

+0.81

4.23

KS

6

41.44

56.83

15.39

17.00

-1.61

25.38

-9.99

19.84

NE*

4*

41.33

56.81

15.49

19.00

-3.51

33.22

-17.73

24.44

KY

8

41.15

57.37

16.22

12.40

+3.82

19.86

-3.64

4.32

LA

9

39.93

58.56

18.63

10.43

+8.20

14.51

+4.12

3.64

AR

6

38.81

58.82

20.01

10.75

+9.26

9.76

+10.25

3.53

AL

9

38.74

60.32

21.58

19.33

+2.25

25.62

-4.04

10.25

AK

3

37.83

59.39

21.66

14.58

+7.08

25.55

-3.89

15.80

ID

4

35.96

61.30

25.34

23.00

+2.34

38.12

-12.78

24.44

UT

5

34.27

62.34

28.07

24.00

+4.07

45.54

-17.47

26.59

OK

7

34.35

65.65

31.29

30.15

+1.14

31.14

+0.15

16.03

WY

3

32.54

64.78

32.24

23.00

+9.24

39.79

-7.55

20.97

 

*Obama won 1 elector from NE (NE-02), again making history. This is the first time that either of the two states that officially split their electors has actually split them, in this case, Nebraska. I will be doing a write up on this and its ramifications for NE, ME and most likely, TX for the future.


The current statistics for NE-02:



State

EV

Obama

%

McCain

 

%

Total

Margin

NE-02

1

138,892

50.61

135,567

49.39

274,459

+0.48


Here a table comparing the margin spreads (numerically):


Margin

BO-GE

EV

BO 11/03

EV

JM-GE

EV

BO 11/03

EV

+30 and up

3

10

2

7

2

10

1

7

+20 to +30

8

143

7

132

4

21

3

12

+10 to +20

10

105

11

99

9

89**

11

105

+5 to +10

4

33

4

40

5

39

2

8

+2 to +5

2

47

2

33

1

3

2

25

+1 to +2

1

11

2

30

--

--

2

14

Subtotal

 

349

 

341

 

162

 

171

Under +1

1**

16**

1

15

1

11

1

11

TOTAL

 

365

 

356

 

173

 

182


**Figure adjusted for the elector-splitting in NE.



Comparison to 2004:


Kerry won 8 of 20 states with a margin of +10 or more. In 2008, Obama won 22 of 29 states with a margin of +10 or more, and two more states in the +9 to +10 range. So, Obama won 24 of 29 states with major landslides. He won 27 of 29 states with an absolute majority of the PV. When the final data is set in stone, I will do a margin analysis, but it is already clear that this cycle was indeed a so-called „re-alignment“ election, where the DEM states from the last cycles that were lean wins or bitter battlegrounds suddenly became huge landslide wins and where, aside from 5 states, McCain lost substantial ground on GOP territory. The statistical proof for a major partisan shift, practically nationwide, is now undeniable. And this re-alignment, depending on how Obama's first term in office goes, may have long-reaching ramifications for the concept of BLUE and RED states for the future. I will do an in-depth analysis of this with the final report.


Obama breaks Bush's record from 2004 and has earned more real votes than any candidate in US history.


By winning NE-02, Obama set a record as being the first candidate in history to pick up an elector in a so-called „Elector Splitting state“ (NE or ME).


Obama set a new superlative record: in DC, both with the highest % and the highest margin in that „state's“ history. Kerry just set a new record high in DC in 2004, so his superlative place in history was short-lived.


Obama's current PV plurality in CA is +3,097,547. Bush's national PV plurality in 2004 was +3,012,171. Alone in the state of California, Obama has surpassed Bush's national plurality from 4 years ago. Obama therefore sets yet another record with the largest state PV plurality in history (thus far).


The DEM ticket made huge gains in the homestates of both candidates (IL, DE). The GOP ticket actually did worse in their homestates than George W. Bush did in 2004 (AZ, AK).


The most stunning cross-party partisan shift of 2008 was the Obama win in IN, a core GOP state, causing a shift of +21.78.


Obama's largest intra-party partisan shift was in HI, a shift of +36.53. Just four years ago, the Bush camp had been talking of making a play for the „Aloha State“. However impressive +36.53 may look, Obama did not break the partisan shift record for this state. LBJ did that in 1964, with an intra-party partisan shift of +57.46 over Kennedy's win in 1960. I am not done with all the research yet, but it looks like the above mentioned factoids are the only records that Obama broke or set in 2008. However, his placement in a number of landslide wins put him in 2nd or 3rd place in some states. When the final data is in, I will get started on those lists and tables as well :)


Where McCain did better than Bush:


McCain improved over Bush's margins in 5 states: OK, WV, TN (less than 1% improvement), LA, AR (more than 4% improvement). In the other 46 states in the Union, McCain did worse than Bush, often considerably worse. Notice that when you look at a map, that these five aforementioned states are connected together. 2 of them (WV, TN) are part of Appalachia, but all of them are considered part of the south. Also interesting is that in 3 of them (OK, WV, AR), the majority of registered voters are DEMOCRATS and not REPUBLICANS, but these are of course conservative DEMOCRATS. One would have expected huge blowouts for McCain and against Obama in WV, KY and TN, but those blowouts did not appear. In WV, McCain's margin was only 0.25% larger than Bush's in 2004, which is statistically insignificant in a state that is won by a landslide. In KY, which I thought would really have an allergic reaction to Obama, McCain actually did worse than Bush in 2004, by -3.63 margin, to be exact. In TN, he did slightly better, with a +0.81 margin increase over 2004. But in AR, he swept the state with +20.01, doubling Bush's margin from 2004!, AR is considered the most democratic leaning of the southern states. So, there may be a Hillary factor here that we can discuss later. In OK, not only were the margins almost identical to each other, but the number of voters as well. In terms of partisan stability, OK is the most stabile state in the Union at the current time. Alone this information serves as solid proof that there was no „BRADLEY EFFECT“ in the 2008 GE.