03 November 2008

FINAL BATTLEGROUND STATE REPORT - 11/02

NIGHTLY BATTLEGROUND STATE REPORT - 11/02


A comparison of rolling polling averages for the battleground states, comparing the average as of 11/02 to 10/31-11/01. This is the FINAL BATTLEGROUND REPORT. POLL CONVERGENCE 12 will come out after polling on 11/03. I will disregard any last minute polls late on 11/04.


Updates for the following battlegrounds ((10 states): CO (1),FL (3), IN (1), MO (1), NC (1), OH (3), VA (3)


-------------------------------------------------------------


FIRST, THE NATIONAL AVERAGE:


The national average is now also computed into the state averages, producing a composite prediction, which is projected in the last column of the large table below. The national average for 11/02 was: +7.05. Change from 10/30: +0.74 . Adjusted national average (minus GE 2004): +9.51. This means that nationally, Obama is currently doing 9.51% better than Kerry did in 2004.



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Margin

Gallup

11/02

52

43

+9

Rasmussen

11/02

51

46

+5

KOS

11/02

51

44

+7

Diageo

11/02

50

45

+5

Reuters/Zogby

11/02

50

44

+6

CNN

11/02

53

46

+7

IBD/TIPP

11/02

47

45

+2

Pew

10/02

52

46

+6

ABC/WAPO

11/02

54

43

+11

CBS/NYT

11/01

54

41

+13

 

 

 

 

 

Average:

 

51.40

44.30

+7.10

Average 2:

 

--

--

---

Average 3

 

51.63

44.63

+7.00

MEAN:

 

51.52

44.47

+7.05

-GE 2004

 

 

 

+2.46

ADJ. MEAN

 

 

 

+9.51



Legend:

Average 1 = only the polls from today

Average 2 = All polls (without repeaters) from the last 3 days (maximum 10 polls allowed)

Average 3 = average without the highest and the lowest individual margin.

Mean = the average of these three averages.

-GE 2004 = difference to national margin 2004 (McCain = -2.46 / Obama = +2.46)

ADJ. MEAN = Mean + GE 2004

yellow shading = not used in Today's calculations.

----------------------------------------------

Changes:


CO and WV are no longer on the battleground list. VA has rejoined the battleground list. The results of early voting in CO tell me that he will carry this state – all but guaranteed. The poll table for CO is still at the bottom of this report, but not in the battleground table or the prediction table. As I always suspected, WV was fools gold for the DEMS in this cycle.


Weakening for Obama in NC, FL and OH – but in spite of this, Obama is headed for wins in all three of these states.


No way to gauge strengthening for McCain as his states were not polled on 11/01 and 11/02 (AZ, GA, MT)


In spite of new polls, the average in MO stays exactly as it was, as +0.35. That is not a typo.



VA returns to the battlegrounds at +4.57. Obama is still favored here.



There were 35 polls over the weekend, making a total of 211 polls in 8 days.

------------------------------------------------------------------------


With IN and MO in the tossups, however, hanging on McCain's side of the fence, my prediction for the electoral college remains as follows:


Obama: 356

McCain: 160

Tossup: 22


Spread: Obama +196


The legend is under the table.

The states with new polls or automatic changes are shaded in light blue.


State

EV

Polls

11/01

10/31

Diff.

2004

Diff.

PRED.

AZ

10

0/7

4.43

4.43

0.00

10.47

-6.04

3.24

GA

15

0/7

4.43

4.43

0.00

16.60

-12.17

3.24

NE-02

1

0/1

4.00

4.00

0.00

--

--

2.31

MT

3

0/5

2.20

2.20

0.00

20.50

-18.30

0.74

--

--

--

 

 

--

--

--

 

IN

11

1/7

1.31

0.74

+0.57

20.68

-19.37

0.04

MO

11

1/7

0.35

0.35

+0.00

7.20

-6.85

0.84

--

--

--

 

 

--

--

--

 

ND

3

0/3

1.34

1.34

0.00

27.36

+28.70

2.36

NC

15

1/7

2.05

3.04

-0.99

12.44

+14.49

2.98

FL

27

3/7

2.14

3.71

-1.57

5.01

+7.15

3.08

VA

13

7/7

4.57

--

--

8.20

+12.77

5.19

OH

20

3/7

5.14

7.86

-2.72

2.11

+7.25

5.69

NV

5

0/7

5.60

5.60

0.00

2.59

+8.19

6.09


Legend:


-„Polls“: 2 values, with a diagonal slash in between: the value to the left = the number of new and until now not calculated polls for the new average. The value to the right of the slash = the total number of polls (without repeats from any pollster) in the new average. That number will not go above 7. A „0“ for the left value means there were no polls on that day.


-Next, the new average value, followed by the old average value.


-The difference between these two values is always the new valus minus the old value.


-Next, the winning margin from the GE in 2004, followed by the difference between the new value and 2004.


-Finally, a prediction based on the margin average, with the national average calculated in as 1/8th of the equation.


A minus difference between new and old values means a slippage in the overall margin, which means, technically speaking, a trend for the other side. A plus difference means a gain for the side that is already winning.


PREDICTION TABLE:

For the prediction, including the national component, here the formula:


(State Average / 87.50%) + (National Average 2008 - GE margin spread 2004 / 12.50%).



State

10/28

/.875

Natl.

/.125

=

AZ

4.43

3.88

-9.51

-1.19

3.24

GA

4.43

3.88

-9.51

-1.19

3.24

NE-02

4.00

3.50

-9.51

-1.19

2.31

MT

2.20

1.93

-9.51

-1.19

0.74

--

--

--

 

 

 

IN

1.31

1.15

-9.51

-1.19

0.04

MO

0.35

0.31

-9.51

-1.19

0.84

--

--

--

 

 

 

ND

1.34

1.17

+9.51

+1.19

2.36

NC

2.05

1.79

+9.51

+1.19

2.98

FL

2.14

1.87

+9.51

+1.19

3.08

VA

4.57

4.00

+9.51

+1.19

5.19

OH

5.14

4.50

+9.51

+1.19

5.69

NV

5.60

4.90

+9.51

+1.19

6.09



------------------------------------------------------------

For the state poll tables: The newest averages are in the „TEMP“ row, not the „average“ row. The „average“ row is the computation from the last POLL CONVERGENCE, to compare.


States shaded in grey = in the computation.

States shaded in yellow = were just cycled out of the computation.


COLORADO



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Average:

 

49.84

45.09

1.50

3.57

+4.75

Temp:

 

51.00

44.00

0.42

4.14

+7.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mason-Dixon

11/02

49

44

--

7

5

ARG

10/31

52

45

--

4

7

PPP (D)

10/31

54

44

--

2

10

NatJournal

10/30

48

44

--

8

4

Marist

10/30

51

45

2

2

6

CNN/Time

10/29

53

45

--

2

8

AP-Gfk Roper

10/29

50

41

1

4

9

Ins. Adv (R)

10/28

53

45

--

2

8

Rasmussen

10/27

50

46

1

2

4

RckyMtnNews

10/26

52

40

2

2

12

Zogby

10/23

48.4

48.1

3.2

0.3

0.3

Rasmussen

10/20

51

46

--

3

5

Rasmussen

10/17

52

45

1

2

7

Zogby 11

10/16

47.5

46.5

3.3

2.7

1

CNN/Time

10/15

51

47

--

2

4

Suffolk

10/14

47

43

3

6

4

Quinnipiac

10/14

52

43

1

5

9

PPP (D)

10/11

52

42

--

6

10


FLORIDA


Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Average:

 

47.69

45.64

1.36

5.50

+2.05

Temp:

 

47.43

45.29

0.86

5.43

+2.14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mason-Dixon

11/02

47

45

--

8

2

Datamar

11/01

47

47

2

4

0

ARG

11/01

50

46

1

4

4

NatJournal

10/30

45

44

--

11

1

CNN/Time

10/29

51

47

--

2

4

Quinnipiac

10/29

47

45

1

6

2

AP-Gfk Roper

10/29

45

43

2

3

2

Times/Bloomberg

10/28

50

43

1

6

7

Datamar

10/28

49

44

3.0

3

5

Suffolk

10/27

49

44

1

5

5

Rasmussen

10/27

51

47

--

1

4

Zogby

10/27

47.2

46.9

2.8

3.3

0.3

Ins. Adv (R)

10/24

48

47

--

5

1

Strat. Vis (R)

10/24

46

48

1

5

2

St. Pete /Times

10/23

49

42

2

7

7

Quinnipiac

10/23

49

44

1

7

5

Zogby

10/23

48.8

45.2

3.5

2.5

3.6

Mason-Dixon

10/22

45

46

2

7

1

PPP (D)

10/21

48

47

--

5

1


INDIANA


Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Average:

 

46.23

47.11

2.59

3.64

+0.88

TEMP:

 

46.29

47.60

1.31

4.80

+1.31

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ARG

11/01

48

48

1

3

0

Downs

10/31

47

47

2

4

0

Rasmussen

10/30

46

49

1

4

3

Selzer

10/30

46

45

3

6

1

Howey/Gauge

10/28

45

47

--

8

2

Tribune/WSBT

10/28

48

47

--

5

1

Zogby

10/27

44.0

50.2

2.2

3.6

6.2

SUSA

10/24

49

45

3

3

4

Big 10

10/23

51.0

41.5

1.4

3.1

9.5

Zogby

10/23

42.3

52.8

3.8

1.1

10.5

PPP (D)

10/21

48

46

--

6

2

Zogby 11

10/16

44.3

48.5

3.9

3.3

4.2

Rasmussen

10/09

43

50

3

4

7

WISH / R 2000

10/07

46

46

3

5

0


MISSOURI


Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Average:

 

47.71

46.32

1.87

4.21

+1.39

Temp:

 

47.60

47.95

1.41

3.04

+0.35

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mason-Dixon

11/02

46

47

--

7

1

ARG

10/31

48

48

--

3

0

Ins. Adv (R)

10/31

47

50

--

3

3

CNN/Time

10/29

48

50

--

2

2

Rasmussen

10/27

48

47

3

3

1

SUSA

10/27

48

48

3

1

0

Zogby

10/27

48.2

45.7

3.9

2.3

2.5

Mason-Dixon

10/26

45

46

--

9

1

R 2000

10/26

48

47

3

2

1

Zogby

10/23

48.0

48.3

3.1

0.5

0.3

Rasmussen

10/20

49

44

4

4

5

Suffolk

10/20

44

45

1

9

1

Rasmussen

10/17

52

46

0

2

6

Zogby 11

10/16

50.1

44.4

3.6

1.9

5.7

CNN/Time

10/15

48

49

--

3

1

PPP (D)

10/14

48

46

--

6

2


NORTH CAROLINA


Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Average:

 

48.22

47.01

1.06

3.36

+1.21

Temp:

 

47.80

45.75

1.60

5.00

+2.05

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mason-Dixon

11/02

46

49

--

5

3

Elon

10/31

44.6

38.3

3.2

13.0

+6.3

R 2000

10/31

47

45

3

5

2

Ins. Adv (R)

10/31

48

48

1

4

0

CNN/Time

10/30

52

46

--

2

6

Rasmussen

10/30

50

48

1

1

2

Civitas (R)

10/30

47

46

3

5

1

NatJournal

10/30

47

43

--

10

4

AP-Gfk Roper

10/29

48

46

1

3

2

Mason-Dixon

10/28

47

47

--

6

0

Rasmussen

10/27

48

49

1

2

1

PPP (D)

10/27

49

48

1

2

1

Zogby

10/27

49.7

46.4

2.5

1.4

3.3

Rasmussen

10/24

48

50

1

1

2

Winthrop / SCETV

10/24

44.6

44.2

1.9

7

0.2

Zogby

10/23

49.6

46.5

1.5

2.3

3.1

WSOC-TV

10/22

48.4

46.4

--

5.2

2

CNN/Time

10/22

51

47

--

2

4

Ins Adv / Politico

10/22

49

48

--

3

1

SUSA

10/21

47

47

3

3

0


OHIO


Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Average:

 

49.71

44.04

1.46

4.49

+5.67

TEMP:

 

50.14

45.00

0.28

4.57

+5.14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP (D)

11/02

50

48

--

2

2

Mason-Dixon

11/02

45

47

--

8

2

Cols Dispatch

11/02

52

46

--

2

6

Ohio U

10/31

57

41

--

2

16

CNN/Time

10/30

51

47

--

2

4

NatJournal

10/30

48

41

--

11

7

Marist

10/29

48

45

2

5

3

Quinnipiac

10/29

51

42

1

7

9

AP-Gfk Roper

10/29

48

41

--

7

7

Times/Bloomberg

10/28

49

40

3

8

9

SUSA

10/28

49

45

4

3

4

Rasmussen

10/27

49

45

1

4

4

Zogby

10/27

49.7

45.1

3.4

1.9

4.6

UAkron

10/26

45

41

--

14

4

Ohio News

10/25

49

46

3

3

3

PPP (D)

10/24

51

44

--

5

7

Strat. Vis (R)

10/24

45

48

2

5

3

Ins. Adv (R)

10/24

52

42

--

6

10

Big 10

10/23

52.5

41.0

1.8

2.7

11.5

Quinnipiac

10/23

52

38

1

8

14

Zogby

10/23

46.5

49.3

2.4

1.7

2.8


VIRGINIA


Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Average:

 

50.50

45.07

0.77

3.13

+5.43

 

 

49.71

45.14

0.43

4.71

+4.57

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PPP (D)

11/02

52

46

--

2

6

SUSA

11/02

50

46

2

2

4

Mason-Dixon

11/02

47

44

--

9

3

Mason-Dixon

10/31

47

45

--

7

2

NatJournal

10/30

48

44

--

8

4

Marist

10/30

51

47

1

2

4

CNN/Time

10/29

53

44

--

3

9

AP-Gfk Roper

10/29

49

42

2

7

7

Rasmussen

10/27

51

47

--

2

4

VCU

10/27

51

40

2

7

11

SUSA

10/27

52

43

3

2

9

ABC/WAPO

10/27

52

44

--

4

8

Zogby

10/27

52.0

44.8

2.0

1.2

7.2

PPP (D)

10/26

52

43

--

5

9

Winthrop / SCETV

10/24

44.6

43.6

2.1

5.9

1.0

Zogby

10/23

49.7

46.1

1.3

3.0

3.6

CNN/Time

10/22

54

44

--

2

10

Mason-Dixon

10/22

47

45

--

8

2

Rasmussen

10/20

54

44

0

1

10

SUSA

10/20

51

46

2

2

5


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