31 October 2008

BATTLEGROUND STATE REPORT 10/30

NIGHTLY BATTLEGROUND STATE REPORT - 10/30


A comparison of rolling polling averages for the battleground states, comparing the average as of 10/30 to 10/29.


Updates for the following battlegrounds (8 states): AZ (2), CO (2), FL (1), IN (2), MT (1), NV (1), NC (3), OH (2)


-------------------------------------------------------------


FIRST, THE NATIONAL AVERAGE:


The national average is now also computed into the state averages, producing a composite prediction, which is projected in the last column of the large table below. The national average for 10/30 was: +5.50. Change from 10/29: +0.06 . Adjusted national average (minus GE 2004):+7.96. This means that nationally, Obama is currently doing 7.96% better than Kerry did in 2004.



Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Margin

Gallup

10/30

51

44

+7

Rasmussen

10/30

51

46

+5

KOS

10/30

50

45

+5

Diageo

10/30

48

42

+6

Zogby

10/30

50

43

+7

IBD/TIPP

10/30

48

44

+4

FOX

10/30

47

44

+3

GWU / Battleground

10/30

49

46

+3

Economist

10/30

49

42

+7

ABC/WAPO

10/30

52

44

+8

 

 

 

 

 

Harris

10/29

50

44

+6

Pew

10/28

53

38

+15

ARG

10/28

49

45

+4

ABC / Post

10/28

52

42

+10

 

 

 

 

 

Average:

 

49.50

44.00

+5.50

Average 2:

 

--

--

--

Average 3

 

49.50

44.00

+5.50

MEAN:

 

49.50

 

+5.50

-GE 2004

 

 

 

+2.46

ADJ. MEAN

 

 

 

+7.96


Legend:

Average 1 = only the polls from today

Average 2 = All polls (without repeaters) from the last 3 days (maximum 10 polls allowed)

Average 3 = average without the highest and the lowest individual margin.

Mean = the average of these three averages.

-GE 2004 = difference to national margin 2004 (McCain = -2.46 / Obama = +2.46)

ADJ. MEAN = Mean + GE 2004

yellow shading = not used in Today's calculations.

----------------------------------------------

Changes:


NV, OH and CO continue to strengthen for Obama as they did on 10/29.


NC jumps out of the tossups and back into the Obama column at +2.28. This is a large jump for one day.


CO, with +7.29 is no longer officially a battleground, and like WV, is crossed through. If at the weekend no contra-indicative polls come through, then on Sunday, both WV and CO will leave the battleground list.


FL has weakened by -0.44 for Obama, slightly out of the statistical noise range. FL is still much more in play than NV, OH and CO.



MT weakens for McCain. AZ strengthens for him by +0.38, just out of the statistical noise range.


Non-battlegrounds:


VA is at +6.86 (-1.23 over 10/29, now middle penumbra). If VA continues to weaken, then it comes back to the battleground list.


PA, which slipped back into the safe zone at +10.86 on 10/29, is now at +8.57 (difference: -2.31, upper Penumbra). But seeing visually which polls have been cycled out and in, the chances are strong that PA will climb back over +9 at the weekend.


NH, which just received a WMUR/UNH poll showing Obama with a +24! lead, is now at an average of +13.57


No big moves in any McCain core states.


There were 38 polls yesterday, making a total of 139 polls in 5 days.

------------------------------------------------------------------------


With NC back in the Obama column, leaving IN and NC in the tossups, my prediction for the electoral college is currently as follows:


Obama: 356

McCain: 160

Tossup: 22


Spread: Obama +196


The legend is under the table.

The states with new polls or automatic changes are shaded in light blue.


State

EV

Polls

10/30

10/29

Diff.

2004

Diff.

PRED.

WV

5

0/7

6.65

6.65

0.00

12.86

-6.48

4.82

AZ

10

2/7

4.57

4.20

+0.37

10.47

-5.90

3.00

GA

15

0/7

4.43

4.43

0.00

16.60

-12.17

3.43

NE-02

1

0/1

4.00

4.00

0.00

--

--

2.50

MT

3

1/5

2.60

3.40

-0.80

20.50

-17.90

1.28

--

--

--

 

 

--

--

--

 

IN

11

2/7

0.61

0.58

+0.03

20.68

+21.29

1.53

MO

11

0/7

0.93

0.93

0.00

7.20

+8.13

1.81

--

--

--

 

 

--

--

--

 

ND

3

0/3

1.67

1.67

0.00

27.36

+29.03

2.46

NC

15

3/7

2.28

0.53

+1.75

12.44

+14.72

3.00

FL

27

3/7

3.71

4.15

-0.44

5.01

+8.72

4.25

NV

5

1/7

5.60

5.46

+0.14

2.59

+8.19

5.90

OH

20

2/7

6.14

5.80

+0.34

2.11

+8.25

6.37

CO

9

2/7

7.29

6.62

+0.67

4.67

+11.96

7.38


Legend:


-„Polls“: 2 values, with a diagonal slash in between: the value to the left = the number of new and until now not calculated polls for the new average. The value to the right of the slash = the total number of polls (without repeats from any pollster) in the new average. That number will not go above 7. A „0“ for the left value means there were no polls on that day.


-Next, the new average value, followed by the old average value.


-The difference between these two values is always the new valus minus the old value.


-Next, the winning margin from the GE in 2004, followed by the difference between the new value and 2004.


-Finally, a prediction based on the margin average, with the national average calculated in as 1/8th of the equation.


A minus difference between new and old values means a slippage in the overall margin, which means, technically speaking, a trend for the other side. A plus difference means a gain for the side that is already winning.


PREDICTION TABLE:

For the prediction, including the national component, here the formula:


(State Average / 87.50%) + (National Average 2008 - GE margin spread 2004 / 12.50%).



State

10/28

/.875

Natl.

/.125

=

WV

6.65

5.82

-7.96

-1.00

4.82

AZ

4.57

4.00

-7.96

-1.00

3.00

GA

4.43

3.88

-7.96

-1.00

3.43

NE-02

4.00

3.50

-7.96

-1.00

2.50

MT

2.60

2.28

-7.96

-1.00

1.28

--

--

--

--

--

 

IN

0.61

0.53

+7.96

+1.00

1.53

MO

0.93

0.81

+7.96

+1.00

1.81

--

--

--

--

--

 

ND

1.67

1.46

+7.96

+1.00

2.46

NC

2.28

2.00

+7.96

+1.00

3.00

FL

3.71

3.25

+7.96

+1.00

4.25

NV

5.60

4.90

+7.96

+1.00

5.90

OH

6.14

5.37

+7.96

+1.00

6.37

CO

7.29

6.38

+7.96

+1.00

7.38



------------------------------------------------------------

For the state poll tables: The newest averages are in the „TEMP“ row, not the „average“ row. The „average“ row is the computation from the last POLL CONVERGENCE, to compare.


States shaded in grey = in the computation.

States shaded in yellow = were just cycled out of the computation.


ARIZONA


Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Average:

 

38.5

57.5

1.00

2.50

+19.00

 

 

43.79

48.36

1.43

5.71

+4.57

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mason-Dixon

10/30

44

48

2

6

4

CNN/Time

10/30

46

53

--

1

7

Cronkite/8Ball

10/28

44

46

--

12

2

NAU

10/27

41

49

2

6

8

Rasmussen

10/27

46

51

1

2

5

Zimmerman (D)

10/26

41.5

43.5

--

10

2

NewWest

10/26

44

48

5

3

4

Rasmussen

09/30

38

59

1

2

21


COLORADO


Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Average:

 

49.84

45.09

1.50

3.57

+4.75

Temp:

 

51.00

43.71

0.86

3.14

+7.29

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NatJournal

10/30

48

44

--

8

4

Marist

10/30

51

45

2

2

6

CNN/Time

10/29

53

45

--

2

8

AP-Gfk Roper

10/29

50

41

1

4

9

Ins. Adv (R)

10/28

53

45

--

2

8

Rasmussen

10/27

50

46

1

2

4

RckyMtnNews

10/26

52

40

2

2

12

Zogby

10/23

48.4

48.1

3.2

0.3

0.3

Rasmussen

10/20

51

46

--

3

5

Rasmussen

10/17

52

45

1

2

7

Zogby 11

10/16

47.5

46.5

3.3

2.7

1

CNN/Time

10/15

51

47

--

2

4

Suffolk

10/14

47

43

3

6

4

Quinnipiac

10/14

52

43

1

5

9

PPP (D)

10/11

52

42

--

6

10


FLORIDA


Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Average:

 

47.69

45.64

1.36

5.50

+2.05

Temp:

 

48.00

44.29

1.14

5.14

+3.71

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NatJournal

10/30

45

44

--

11

1

CNN/Time

10/29

51

47

--

2

4

Quinnipiac

10/29

47

45

1

6

2

AP-Gfk Roper

10/29

45

43

2

3

2

Times/Bloomberg

10/28

50

43

1

6

7

Datamar

10/28

49

44

3.0

3

5

Suffolk

10/27

49

44

1

5

5

Rasmussen

10/27

51

47

--

1

4

Zogby

10/27

47.2

46.9

2.8

3.3

0.3

Ins. Adv (R)

10/24

48

47

--

5

1

Strat. Vis (R)

10/24

46

48

1

5

2

St. Pete /Times

10/23

49

42

2

7

7

Quinnipiac

10/23

49

44

1

7

5

Zogby

10/23

48.8

45.2

3.5

2.5

3.6

Mason-Dixon

10/22

45

46

2

7

1

PPP (D)

10/21

48

47

--

5

1


INDIANA


Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Average:

 

46.23

47.11

2.59

3.64

+0.88

TEMP:

 

47.00

46.39

1.51

3.25

+0.61

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/30

46

49

1

4

3

Selzer

10/30

46

45

3

6

1

Howey/Gauge

10/28

45

47

--

8

2

Tribune/WSBT

10/28

48

47

--

5

1

Zogby

10/27

44.0

50.2

2.2

3.6

6.2

SUSA

10/24

49

45

3

3

4

Big 10

10/23

51.0

41.5

1.4

3.1

9.5

Zogby

10/23

42.3

52.8

3.8

1.1

10.5

PPP (D)

10/21

48

46

--

6

2

Zogby 11

10/16

44.3

48.5

3.9

3.3

4.2

Rasmussen

10/09

43

50

3

4

7

WISH / R 2000

10/07

46

46

3

5

0


MONTANA


Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Average:

 

44.55

47.80

2.48

4.88

+3.25

Temp:

 

44.84

47.44

1.98

5.50

+2.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rasmussen

10/30

46

50

2

2

4

Mason-Dixon

10/28

44

48

--

8

4

MSU

10/23

44.2

40.2

4.9

9.5

4.2

R 2000

10/19

45

49

3

3

4

ARG

10/09

45

50

--

5

5

Rasmussen

10/02

44

52

2

2

8


NEVADA


Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Average:

 

48.14

46.78

1.49

3.74

+1.36

Temp:

 

49.46

43.86

2.14

3.26

+5.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CNN/Time

10/30

52

45

--

3

7

AP-Gfk Roper

10/29

52

40

3

2

12

Suffolk

10/28

50

40

4

6

10

Rasmussen

10/28

50

46

3

1

4

Zogby

10/27

48.2

44.0

3.0

4.8

4.2

Zogby

10/23

44.0

51.5

3.4

1.2

7.5

CNN/Time

10/22

51

46

--

3

5

Ins Adv / Politico

10/22

47

47

--

6

0

Rasmussen

10/17

50

45

2

3

5

Zogby 11

10/16

47.5

47.1

4.4

1.0

0.4

Ins. Adv (R)

10/15

49

46

1

4

3

Mason-Dixon

10/12

47

45

2

6

2

Ins. Adv (R)

10/07

49

47

1

3

2


NORTH CAROLINA


Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Average:

 

48.22

47.01

1.06

3.36

+1.21

Temp:

 

48.57

46.29

0.85

4.14

+2.28

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CNN/Time

10/30

52

46

--

2

6

Rasmussen

10/30

50

48

1

1

2

Civitas (R)

10/30

47

46

3

5

1

NatJournal

10/30

47

43

--

10

4

AP-Gfk Roper

10/29

48

46

1

3

2

Mason-Dixon

10/28

47

47

--

6

0

Rasmussen

10/27

48

49

1

2

1

PPP (D)

10/27

49

48

1

2

1

Zogby

10/27

49.7

46.4

2.5

1.4

3.3

Rasmussen

10/24

48

50

1

1

2

Winthrop / SCETV

10/24

44.6

44.2

1.9

7

0.2

Zogby

10/23

49.6

46.5

1.5

2.3

3.1

WSOC-TV

10/22

48.4

46.4

--

5.2

2

CNN/Time

10/22

51

47

--

2

4

Ins Adv / Politico

10/22

49

48

--

3

1

SUSA

10/21

47

47

3

3

0


OHIO


Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Average:

 

49.71

44.04

1.46

4.49

+5.67

TEMP:

 

49.14

43.00

1.29

6.14

+6.14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CNN/Time

10/30

51

47

--

2

4

NatJournal

10/30

48

41

--

11

7

Marist

10/29

48

45

2

5

3

Quinnipiac

10/29

51

42

1

7

9

AP-Gfk Roper

10/29

48

41

--

7

7

Times/Bloomberg

10/28

49

40

3

8

9

SUSA

10/28

49

45

4

3

4

Rasmussen

10/27

49

45

1

4

4

Zogby

10/27

49.7

45.1

3.4

1.9

4.6

UAkron

10/26

45

41

--

14

4

Ohio News

10/25

49

46

3

3

3

PPP (D)

10/24

51

44

--

5

7

Strat. Vis (R)

10/24

45

48

2

5

3

Ins. Adv (R)

10/24

52

42

--

6

10

Big 10

10/23

52.5

41.0

1.8

2.7

11.5

Quinnipiac

10/23

52

38

1

8

14

Zogby

10/23

46.5

49.3

2.4

1.7

2.8