30 September 2008

BATTLEGROUND STATE REPORT 09/29

 

NIGHTLY BATTLEGROUND STATE REPORT - 09/29



A comparison of rolling polling averages for the most critical battleground states, comparing the average as of 09/29 to 09/28.


Updates for the following battlegrounds for 09/27 and 09/28: PA (2), CO (1),VA (1), OH (1), FL (2), NC (1). The other 9 states on the list were not polled and are statistically steady.


There was a certain amount of statistical noise on Monday, for instance, states like NC and VA showing again polls for Obama but where the margin average moved between 0.1 and 0.2 for McCain instead. This can happen when a poll falls out of the statistic, which is why I have already written more than once about being careful about such small changes, except in the case of bitter tossups. Technically, VA looks like an absolute tie. But in reality, 4 of the last 5 polls (three of which are in today's statistic, one of which is not since it is a repeat pollster) were for Obama. If this trend continues over the next 4 polls, then the state will move solidly toward Obama. If not, it will either remain a tossup or move back to McCain. But even the slightest of negative motion is still technically movement for the other guy. For this reason, OH, CO and VA are currently trending McCain, if by only 0.1%.


The only big movement today, but important movement, was PA, which, with Obama at 5.3 (that's +1.00 margin movement in one day), moves OUT OF THE BATTLEGROUNDS, while CO at Obama +4.9 (-0.10 margin movement) slips back into the BATTLEGROUNDS. Of course, PA will stay on this list, maybe until election day.


Based on the numbers from 09/29,my current EC prediction is (with VA still in the tossup column):


Obama: 273

McCain: 252

Tossup: 13 (VA)


How to read the table:


-State and EV are self-explanatory.


-„Polls" will reflect 2 values, with a diagonal slash in between: the value to the left of the slash is the number of new and until now not calculated polls for the new average, in this case, as of 09/29. The value to the right of the slash is the total number of polls (without repeats from any pollster) in the new average. That number will not go above 7. A „0" for the left value means there were no polls on that day, automatically making the trend status of the state „steady"


-Next, the new average value, in this case, „09/29", followed by the old average value, in this case „09/28". This makes for a time frame of exactly one week.


-The difference between these two values is always the new valus minus the old value.


Next, the winning margin from the GE in 2004, followed by the difference between the new value and 2004.

-Finally, just as a baseline, the 60 year average for this state, for visual comparison.


A minus difference between new and old values means a slippage in the overall margin, which means, technically speaking, a trend for the other side. A plus difference means a gain for the side that is already winning.


The list in ascending order of margin for Obama, starting with the states trending toward McCain, through states for Obama.


State

EV

Polls

 

09/28

Diff.

2004

Diff.

60 year

Trend

WV

5

0/4

5.30

5.30

0.00

12.86

-7.56

3.81

steady

--

--

--

 

--

--

--

--

--

--

MO

11

0/7

3.80

3.80

0.00

7.20

-3.40

0.21

steady

NC

15

1/7

2.80

2.70

+0.10

12.44

-9.44

4.13

McCain

IN

11

0/6

2.20

2.20

0.00

20.68

-18.48

13.29

steady

NV

5

0/6

1.70

1.70

0.00

2.59

+0.41

9.94

Obama

OH

20

1/7

1.50

1.40

+0.10

2.11

-0.71

5.15

McCain

FL

27

1/7

1.30

1.30

0.00

5.01

-3.71

8.65

steady

VA

13

1/7

0.20

0.40

-0.20

8.20

+8.60

10.14

McCain

NH

4

0/7

1.30

1.30

0.00

1.37

-0.07

11.34

steady

MN

10

0/7

4.00

4.00

0.00

3.48

+0.52

6.15

steady

WI

10

0/7

4.10

4.10

0.00

0.38

+0.88

1.83

steady

CO

9

1/7

4.90

5.00

-0.10

4.67

+9.97

9.41

McCain

--

--

--

 

--

--

--

--

--

--

PA

21

2/7

5.30

4.30

+1.00

2.50

+2.80

0.25

Obama

MI

17

0/7

5.60

5.60

0.00

3.42

+2.12

0.42

steady

NM

5

0/6

5.80

5.80

0.00

0.79

+6.59

4.10

steady



28 September 2008

Battleground State REPORT 09/28 compared to PC8 from 09/21.

NIGHTLY BATTLEGROUND STATE REPORT - 09/28

a look back one week.


A comparison of rolling polling averages for the most critical battleground states, comparing the average as of 09/28 to the averages from my POLL DATA CONVERGENCE no. 8, which was published on 09/22 but contained data up to 09/21, the raw data for which is HERE and the distillation for which is HERE.


Updates for the following battlegrounds for 09/27 and 09/28: NONE: meaning that the averages for 09/26 still stand. I posted a daily outlook for the battlegrounds, showing the incremental changes from day to day, but the week long overview shows a clear movement for Obama in 13 of 14 battlegrounds that had new polls. The 15th battleground, IN, has not been polled again since 09/21 and is therefore listed as „steady“.


All „red“ battleground states polled since 09/21, outside of WV, show minus (-) differences for McCain – all are therefore trending for Obama. All „blue“ battlegrounds show plus (+) differences for Obama and are therefore all trending for Obama.


It should also be noticed that the most marked improvement for Obama were in the five states that John McCain must win from Obama: CO (+3.30 difference), PA (+2.70 difference), VA (+2.40 difference), WI (+1.80 difference) and MI (+1.50 difference). That is a block of 70 EV. The most marked loss for McCain is VA (-2.40 difference) and NC (-2.30 difference), nieghboring states, to note.


And for context: a state like IA,which many thought would become a battleground and which had stayed constant for Obama at +6 for almost 6 months, has moved to +9 for Obama and is solidly outside the battleground category. Ditto Oregon, with also a margin average of Obama +9.


Based on the numbers from 09/28,my current EC prediction is (with VA in the tossup column and NH back in the lean Obama column):


Obama: 273

McCain: 252

Tossup: 13 (VA)


How to read the table:


-State and EV are self-explanatory.


-„Polls“ will reflect 2 values, with a diagonal slash in between: the value to the left of the slash is the number of new and until now not calculated polls for the new average, in this case, as of 09/28. The value to the right of the slash is the total number of polls (without repeats from any pollster) in the new average. That number will not go above 7. A „0“ for the left value means there were no polls on that day, automatically making the trend status of the state „steady


-Next, the new average value, in this case, „09/28“, followed by the old average value, in this case „09/21“. This makes for a time frame of exactly one week.


-The difference between these two values is always the new valus minus the old value.


Next, the winning margin from the GE in 2004, followed by the difference between the new value and 2004.

-Finally, just as a baseline, the 60 year average for this state, for visual comparison.


A minus difference between new and old values means a slippage in the overall margin, which means, technically speaking, a trend for the other side. A plus difference means a gain for the side that is already winning.


Technically, WV, CO, MI and NM are currently NOT battlegrounds, but they will stay on the list for a while to see what happens. So, in reality, there are, technically speaking, only 10 battleground states today.


The list in ascending order of margin for Obama, starting with the states trending toward McCain, through states for Obama.


State

EV

Polls

09/28

09/21

Diff.

2004

Diff.

60 year

Trend

WV

5

0/4

5.30

4.50

+1.20

12.86

-7.56

3.81

McCain

--

--

--

--

 

--

--

--

--

--

MO

11

0/7

3.80

4.90

-1.10

7.20

-3.40

0.21

Obama

NC

15

0/7

2.70

5.60

-2.90

12.44

-9.44

4.13

Obama

IN

11

0/6

2.20

2.20

0.00

20.68

-18.48

13.29

steady

NV

5

0/6

1.70

3.00

-0.80

2.59

+0.41

9.94

Obama

OH

20

0/7

1.40

1.70

-0.30

2.11

-0.71

5.15

Obama

FL

27

0/7

1.30

2.00

-0.70

5.01

-3.71

8.65

Obama

VA

13

0/7

0.40

2.00

+2.40

8.20

+8.60

10.14

Obama

NH

4

0/7

1.30

0.20

+1.10

1.37

-0.07

11.34

Obama

MN

10

0/7

4.00

3.60

+0.40

3.48

+0.52

6.15

Obama

WI

10

0/7

4.10

2.30

+1.80

0.38

+0.88

1.83

Obama

PA

21

0/7

4.30

1.60

+2.70

2.50

+1.80

0.25

Obama

--

--

--

--

 

--

--

--

--

--

CO

9

0/7

5.00

1.70

+3.30

4.67

+10.07

9.41

Obama

MI

17

0/7

5.60

4.10

+1.50

3.42

+2.12

0.42

Obama

NM

5

0/6

5.80

4.70

+1.10

0.79

+6.59

4.10

Obama


Probably around 10/06 I will post Poll Convergence number 9, maybe as early as 10/03.