16 June 2008

Obama's inroads into the west

Obama’s advance in the core GOP states is statistically showing up all over the place. The numbers cannot be ignored. From AK to WY to ND to NE to CO to  MS, the GOP is in trouble.

 

Example:  KANSAS

 

To refresh:

 

KS - Bush 2004 margin: +25.38

KS - GOP combined margin average 1948-2004: +19.84

 

KS – McCain’s poll convergence average for April-May 2008: +16.40

 

The Rasmussen poll that came out today is the fourth poll in a row for this state, from three different pollsters, showing a radically reduced margin for McCain in KS. When you average all polls, his margin drops to +13.7 (-2.70 drop from the last poll convergence), which is still a good winning margin, but way under Bush’s margin from 2004. If you cycle out the April poll, which will happen at the end of June, then the margin slips again to +13.1 (-3.30 drop from the last poll convergence). And assuming that similar poll values may very well come in in July, when you cycle out the May poll, his current June only average is down to +7.6 (-8.80 drop from the last poll convergence),.

 

Here the poll numbers, chronologically, in reverse:

 

Kansas – GOP

 

Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Rasmussen

06/16

37

47

6

10

+10

Cooper & Secrest

06/13

41

45

-

14

+4

Research 2000

06/06

41

50

-

9

+11

SUSA

05/29

39

49

-

12

+10

Rasmussen

05/13

34

55

7

4

+21

Research 2000

05/10

33

58

-

9

+25

SUSA

04/17

37

54

-

9

+17

April/May Average:

 

36.8

53.2

 

 

+16.4

All:

 

37.4

51.1

1.9

9.6

+13.7

May/June only:

 

37.5

50.6

2.2

9.7

+13.1

June only:

 

39.7

47.3

2.0

11.0

+7.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Old polls, not in the statistics:

 

 

 

 

 

SUSA

03/20

39

51

 

 

+11

SUSA 50

03/06

41

50

 

 

+9

SUSA

02/21

44

50

 

 

+6

SUSA

01/16

39

53

 

 

+14

SUSA

12/19

36

56

 

 

+20

SUSA

11/26

37

53

 

 

+17

 

Now, here the poll numbers, chronologically, by pollster, with the margin difference calculated in:

 

 

Pollster

Date

Obama

McCain

Other

Und.

Margin

Rasmussen

06/16

37

47

6

10

+10

Rasmussen

05/13

34

55

7

4

+21

Difference:

 

-3

-8

-1

+6

-11

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooper & Secrest

06/13

41

45

-

14

+4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Research 2000

06/06

41

50

-

9

+11

Research 2000

05/10

33

58

-

9

+25

Difference:

 

+8

-8

 

+/-0

-14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SUSA

05/29

39

49

-

12

+10

SUSA

04/17

37

54

-

9

+17

Difference:

 

+2

-5

 

-3

-7

 

Do I think that Obama can win KS? In my opinion, his chances are slim at best. McCain is still favored to win here.

 

But what Obama can do that neither Kerry nor Gore nor Clinton could, which is part of a functioning 50 state strategy, is to reduce the margin to the point where a.) the GOP is forced to drop funds into this states and b.) to destroy McCain’s chances of winning in the popular vote.

 

The rationale is quite simple:

 

Vis-à-vis A): for every state that the GOP must suddenly fight for, this means less resources for states that the GOP would like to turn into battlegrounds. Should the margin average go under +6, then surely the GOP will start pumping money into KS. And remember, Obama has not even started to campaign in this state.

 

Vis-à-vis B): Bush racked up his +3,000,000 PV margin in 2004 by scoring “hypermajority” wins in states like KS – in the breadbasket, in the mountain west, in some states in the south. Without those stupendous small and middle state wins, the vote would have been much closer between Bush and Kerry, probably more like 50 to 49.3 or so.

 

That being said, polls flux as we all know and indeed the polls in KS could open up and widen again to McCain’s advantage. But the fact that four polls and three pollsters have him at a margin of between +4 and +11 (average: +8.75) means that something is underfoot in KS. And if it is happening in this state, then we can imagine the groundswell happening for Obama in true battleground states like MO and CO and OH and MI. If this is happening in KS, then just imagine what is most likely going on in NE, especially in NE-01 or NE-02…