30 May 2008

Delegate Count 05/30

Obama picked up 4 superdelegates, Clinton picked up 1. Here's how it currently stands, 05/30, 04:10 EST:

 

Candidate

Delegates

%

Del Margin

% Margin

Obama

1,984

52.60

+203

+5.38

Clinton

1,781

47.22

--

--

Edwards

7

0.18

--

--

 

Total committed delegates: 3,772 (100.00% of current)

Remaining delegates: 86 PD + 191 SD = 277.

 

Here the exact statistics:

 

Current Tot.

Current BO

BO%

Current HC

HC %

Margin

Margin %

PD - 3167

1661

52.45

1499

47.33

+162

+4.12

SD – 605

323

53.38

282

46.62

+41

+6.76

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SUBTOTAL

 

 

 

 

 

 

3772

1984

52.60

1781

47.22

+203

+5.38

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

Current BO

2026 -

2210-

Current HC

2026-

2210-

4050

1984

-42

 

1781

-245

 

+FL, MI

2105

 

-100

1956

 

-255

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This puts Obama 42 delegates from the nomination. This is a critical number, as I predict he will win at least 42 delegates in the last three races, more likely, he will win 43.

 

Assuming that, Obama nets 42-43 PDs from the last three races, alone at least 18 from MT and SD, meaning that he only needs 24 or 25 from Puerto Rico, then he will, without one more SD endorsement, clinch the nomination on Tuesday. And at the rate they are endorsing, I am assuming that at least 10 more will come out for Obama between now and Tuesday.

 

Now, if the bylaws committee decides to admit FL and MI either as full or half delegations and both teams accept this, then the magic number will shift, but Obama will still be far closer to it than Clinton.

 

28 May 2008

The last 3 - preliminary predictions

 

PUERTO RICO (55 PDs)

Primary date: June 1

 

Voter registration statistics as of March 24th:

 

Estimate RV: 2,000,000

DEMOCRATIC: N/A

REPUBLICAN: N/A

INDEPENDENT: N/A

 

 

DEM votes , Primary 2004: N/A

Voter Turnout from 2004: 81.7% (CNN)

Projected turnout: 1,000,000

 

Here the poll numbers for PR:

 

Pollster

Date

Clinton

Obama

Und.

Margin

Vocero

05/28

51

38

11

+13

Le Empresa

04/10

50

37

13

+ 13

Average:

 

50.5

37.5

12

+13

 

This will be a Clinton win, and it will be her last win. Somewhere between 56-44 and 58-42. I take the mean: 57-43

 

PD split (proportional)

 

Clinton: 31 PDs

Obama: 24 PDs

Margin: Clinton + 7

 

In order to overtake Obama in the PV, including the votes of FL and assuming that Obama will net AT LEAST a 50,000 vote margin in MT and SD combined (I suspect it will be closer to a  67,000 vote margin), then Clinton must achieve a MINIMUM 214,000 vote plurality in PR. If 1,000,000 Puerto Ricans vote in the DEM primary, then this translates to  60.7% of the vote in order to get a 214,000 vote plurality. And if less voters turn out than 1,000,000, then her percentage must be higher to make up the difference. So, alone the running percentages on Sunday will tell us if Hillary Clinton can take the lead in the PV according to fair standards. Including MI is NOT fair, as Obama was not on the ballot.

 

 So, the percentage to look for on Sunday is anything above 61.7% for Clinton. Anything less than that means that she will not take the PV lead.

-------------------------------------------

MONTANA (15 PDs)

June 3 – OPEN PRIMARY

 

Voter registration statistics as of March 24th:

 

RV: 627,569

 

Demographic makeup:

 

Votes for Kerry in 2004: 173,710

2004 margin: Bush + 20.50

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +9.54

 

DEM votes , Primary 2004: 93,543

Projected turnout: 234,000

 

poll numbers for MT:

 

Pollster

Date

Obama

Clinton

Und.

Margin

Billings Gazette

05/25

52

35

13

+ 17

 

Obama will win here, somewhere between 58-42 and 60-40. Taking the mean: 59-41.

 

PD split (proportional)

Obama: 9 PDs

Clinton: 7 PDs

Margin: Obama +2

 

-------------------------------------------

SOUTH DAKOTA (16 PDs)

June 3

 

Voter registration statistics as of 5/27:

 

DEMOCRATIC: 192,037

REPUBLICAN: 235,965

Libertarian/Constitution/Other: 2,035

INDEPENDENT: 76,338

TOTAL: 506,375

 

Demographic makeup:

 

 Selected Characteristics

South Dakota

U.S.

 Median age

36.9

36.4

 Women

50.0%

50.7%

 White alone, not Hispanic or Latino

86.6%

66.4%

 American Indian or Alaska Native alone

8.5%

1.0%

 Black alone

0.9%

12.8%

 Hispanic or Latino

2.1%

14.8%

 Median household income

$42,791

$48,451

 Foreign born

2.2%

12.5%

 Persons below poverty

13.6%

13.3%

 Bachelor's degree or higher (age 25+)

24.8%

27.0%

 Median home value

$112,600

$185,200


Source: U.S. Census Bureau Total Population Estimates (2007), State Population Estimates by Characteristics (2006), American Community Survey (2006).

 

Votes for Kerry in 2004: 149,244

2004 margin: Bush + 21.47

GOP margin average 1948-2004: +13.31

 

DEM votes , Primary 2004: 84,405

Projected turnout: 125,000

 

Here the poll numbers for SD:

 

Pollster

Date

Obama

Clinton

Und.

Margin

Dakota Wesleyan

04/15

46

34

20

+12

 

This poll is old news. This will be an Obama win, very similar to MT. MT should be more Clinton-friendly than SD, with it's blue collar worker segment of the population, and if Obama  is sweeping with 17 points then, then he is here as well. So, same prognosis as for MT: somewhere between 58-42 and 60-40. Taking the mean: 59-41.

 

PD split (proportional)

Obama: 10 PDs

Clinton: 5 PDs

Margin: Obama +5

 

 

Projected PD count for these three states:

 

Clinton: 31 + 7 + 5 = 43

Obama: 24 + 9 + 10 = 43

Margin: 0

 

 

If we assume that no other SUPERDELEGATES come out between now and the last 3 races, then the results of these races will bring Obama to 2,022 delegates, 4 delegates shy of the current absolute majority of 2,026.