29 April 2008

NC and IN update 04/29

NC and IN Update: 04/29

 

NORTH CAROLINA (115 Delegates)

May 6th – semi-open primary: those who already have a party affiliation must vote in the primary for that party. Those who has registered as "unaffiliated" (INDEPENDENT) can vote in either the DEM or the GOP primary.

 

As of 04/29, exact voter registration statistics, from the NC state board of elections website:

REPUBLICAN: 1,933,681 (33.34%) - +1,766 over 4/04

DEMOCRATIC: 2,623,941 (45.24%) - +70,632 over 4/04

INDEPENDENT: 1,242,587 (21.42%) - +30,656 over 4/04

TOTAL DEM und IND combined: 3,866,528 (66.66%) - +101,288 over 4/04

Total RV: 5,800,209 (100.00%)

 

Absentee By Mail Ballots Returned: 12,939

Absentee Onestop Ballots Cast: 178,136

 

As of 04/04, exact voter registration statistics:

REPUBLICAN: 1,931,915 (33.91%)

DEMOCRATIC: 2,553,309 (44.82%)

INDEPENDENT: 1,211,931 (21.27%)

Total RV: 5,697,155 (100.00%)

 

Here the poll numbers for NC (last 7, without repeaters):

 

Pollster

Date

Obama

Clinton

Und.

Margin

SUSA

04/29

49

44

7

+5

Rasmussen

04/29

51

37

12

+14

PPP (D)

04/28

51

39

10

+12

ARG

04/28

52

42

6

+10

LA TIMES

04/15

47

34

19

+13

Insider Advantage

04/15

51

36

13

+15

Civitas (R)

04/14

45

27

28

+18

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average:

 

49.4

37.0

13.6

+12.4

 

SUSA from 4/29, North Carolina, internals:

Under the category "already voted", it's Obama 57, Clinton 39 (margin: Obama +18) - and this is the more likely spread we will see than just 5 points. Strangely enough, under "already voted", there is a subcategory for likely voters. Kind of dumb. All voters who have already voted ARE likely voters. Oy. They are not only likely, they are CONFIRMED. Oy. In the SUSA poll, Clinton has pulled ahead among the affiliateds, a statistic we have not seen in any other NC poll yet. So, we will have to delve into the next polls and see if this holds or if it is an outlier.

SUSA pegged Ohio right on the money.

It was off in PA.

So, I doubt seriously that the race in NC is in single digits.

Based on the above statistics, if the Primary were held today:

 

Assuming that the undecided voters (13.6%) go for Obama 56.2%-43.8% (12.4 point spread) against Clinton, and adding 2% for the snap-back effect, then the election could look like this:

 

Obama: 59.0%

Clinton: 41.0%

Margin: Obama +18.0%

------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANA (72 Delegates)

May 6 – OPEN PRIMARY

 

 

DEMOCRATIC: N/A

REPUBLICAN: N/A

INDEPENDENT: N/A

Registered Voters: 4,988,755

 

Here the poll numbers for IN (last 7, without repeaters):

 

Pollster

Date

Clinton

Obama

Und.

Margin

Howey-Gauge

04/29

45

47

8

-2

PPP

04/29

50

42

8

+8

SUSA

04/28

52

43

5

+9

ARG

04/25

50

45

5

+5

Selzer

04/25

38

41

21

-3

Research 2000

04/25

47

48

5

-1

LA Times

04/15

35

40

25

-5

Average:

 

45.3

43.7

11.0

+1.5

 

Indiana:

PPP Internals from 4/29: shows Obama with only 73% of the black vote. Highly unlikely. More likely will be 90%. That's a 17% difference of 10% of the population of Indiana, which means a possible (or better put, likely) error of 1.7% against Obama right now in this poll. Which makes it more like 48.3 to 43.7 - if we are realistic about this poll. Obama has polled consistently higher and higher in the black vote in each successive race and there would be no reason in the world to think that that pattern should suddenly change now. Something must be not right with the statistics here.

The polls is also comprised of 55% women / 45% men. This means that women are overrepresented by 3 points. It is also based on a representation of 74% democrat / 14% republican / 12% other - which will be hard to gauge do to the open primary nature of this state and no statistical way to know, from voter registration, how many republicans will actually go vote in the DEM primary. But in this state, according to the poll, she is winning in the republican vote. Obama is swamping her in the "other" vote.

So, the way I see it, it really depends on whether 2,000,000 GOPers in Indiana wake up on primary day and say, "Gee, I think I will go vote for Hillary". Because, if more independents end up voting than in this poll model and surely Obama will pick up more than just 73% of the black vote, then the race will be much closer than this. It could look a lot more like the Howey-Gauge poll.

But I still think she will win IN by a lean margin. And they will split the delegates about 50-50.

Based on the above statistics, if the Primary were held today:

 

Assuming that the undecided voters (11.0%) go for Clinton 50.75%-49.25% (margin: +1.5) against Obama, and adding 2% for the snap-back effect, then the election could look like this:

 

Clinton: 52.9%

Obama: 47.1%

Margin: Clinton +5.8

 

 

FRANKFURTER RUNDSCHAU CLINTON HEADLINE AND MAP


First, the primary map, in german.

---------------------------------------

TRANSLATION:

Clinton's small win

The margin
of Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama from the PA primary is not enough for a turning point.

The never-ending race
between the two democrats helps, most of all, republican presidential candidate John McCain

(pages 2/3, 13)


---------

Frankfurter Rundschau - Editorial over Pennsylvania


I thought it might interest a number of my blog readers to see how the german press is treating the democratic primary race.

The FRANKFURTER RUNDSCHAU is one of the two major newspapers out of Frankfurt, second only to the FRANKFURTER ALLGEMEINE.

There was a very telling and sober editorial called "Sog der Selbstzerstörung" (Maelstrom of Self-Destruction), written by Dietmar Ostermann.

Above is the editorial itself, and here is my english translation of the article:

Title: The maelstrom of self-destruction

By: Dietmar Ostermann

Frankfurter Rundschau, April 24, 2008 (Editorial)

Undertitle: Clinton’s victory in Pennsylvania is a problem for her party. It’s still the fight between the “Comeback-Kid” and the “King of Hearts”. The democrats are well on their way to gambling away their chances for the White House.

The democrats had a 6 week break in their primary calendar. A long time for candidates to present themselves anew, for the voters to reorient themselves. Time to rethink as party, a party that can’t decide between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. And now? Six weeks later everything is exactly as it was before. Obama is still the “King of Hearts” (the hero) of the young, the black and the left-establishment voters in the metropolises. Clinton remains the “Comeback-Kid for the female voters, for voters 45 and up, for the blue-collar voters and the small towns. In Pennsylvania, her coalition was, demographically speaking, even stronger.


But for this very reason, however, Clinton’s victory in this important primary state only means: for now, she stays in the running in the duel for the democratic nomination. Because nothing has changed in the rivalry between the two and their supporters as well. There have been no real surprises. Clinton’s victory (in PA) was expected. A 10 point margin in this her natural stronghold is a solid win, nothing more. There was no large landslide, Obama did not go crashing to the ground. In the battle for the pledged delegates, Hillary Clinton is still distinctly behind (Barack Obama). For the New York Senator, Pennsylvania was yet another missed opportunity to make up for a lot of lost ground. The winner of Pennsylvania is celebrating – most of all – her stamina, (her ability to stay alive in a fire-fight).


The loser of the evening did indeed lose. Barack Obama had to deal with, after Ohio and Texas, his third big-state loss in a row. Alone, because of the fact that in spite of his margin in the pledged delegates, a margin that it practically impossible to overcome, and in spite of the fact that has the superior campaign war-chest, there is doubt within the party (about Barack Obama). Clinton has successfully sown the seeds of this doubt, most of it appears to borrowed directly from the republican play-book. Obama is somehow too green behind the ears, not hard enough, to put the trust of the nation in his hands, is what Clinton is suggesting from advertisement scenes including Pearl Harbor and Osama bin Laden.


But more than anything else: what just a couple of months ago was so fresh and enchanting and “different” about this extraordinary black Senator is now being used against him. “Different” suddenly means “Careful! He is not like you all are! He goes to a church where the pastor screams the fury of the black ghettos right out the windows. His stupid talk of a white lower-class that clings to guns and God out of frustration” – all of this will be twisted around about him until the first black politician with a real chance at the White House, son of a poor woman from Kansas, appears to be an elitist “snob.” This is how brutal and “un-glossy” election campaigns can be in the USA. But it works. In Pennsylvania, white voters went 60-40 for Clinton, while the black voters went overwhelmingly for Obama.


Not just the results of Pennsylvania, but rather the increasingly bitter character of the race for the nomination is causing concern to grow that the continuing dogfight is killing what should be upwind for the democrats (in the fall). That because of this, the democrats may end up with a “damaged” candidate in the campaign against John McCain. That they, in their high-spirited search for a candidate, may just destroy what should be their own very good chances at capturing the White House. Since there is hardly a serious calculated scenario (mathematical model) in which Clinton can surpass Obama on her own strength, the only way for her to get the nomination is to destroy him. She must disenchant everything about him (Obama) until the “superdelegates” become terrified at the risk of an Obama nomination and instead go with the “Iron Lady”. Whether or not this strategy of hers will function or not is as unsure as the question of how far she will go (to get nominated).

After Pennyslvania, the democrats are dangerously close to the point of self-destruction. They haven’t reached this point yet. Even when Clinton threatens to take this all the way to the convention, no one wants it to go this far. At the latest, in June, when the last primary has come and gone, then the pressure will mount on the “superdelegates” to make their decision. Already on May 5th, a double win for Obama in Indiana and North Carolina could end the stalemate. But one thing is now certain: there won’t be a shining winner after all of this.




28 April 2008

IN and NC rolling poll update - 04/28

04/28, 17:50 EST:

 

Indiana poll average update  (the last 5, without repeaters)

 

Pollster

Date

Clinton

Obama

Und.

Margin

SUSA

04/28

52

43

5

+9

ARG

04/25

50

45

5

+5

Selzer

04/25

38

41

21

-3

Research 2000

04/25

47

48

5

-1

LA Times

04/15

35

40

25

-5

Average:

 

44.4

43.4

12.2

+1.0

 

 

North Carolina poll update:

 

 

Pollster

Date

Obama

Clinton

Und.

Margin

PPP (D)

04/28

51

39

10

+12

ARG

04/28

52

42

6

+10

SUSA

04/22

50

41

9

+9

LA TIMES

04/15

47

34

19

+13

Insider Advantage

04/15

51

36

13

+15

Civitas (R)

04/14

45

27

28

+18

 

 

49.3

36.5

14.2

+12.8

 

 

Analysis in the next days as more polls roll in.

The crosstabs for a lot of these polls are very, very questionable in many ways.

Hmmmmmmm……

Hmmmmmmm…..