24 February 2008

Obama sweeps WI and HI

19 FEB 2008

Obama’s big win in Wisconsin is not to be ignored. He was trailing Hillary Clinton badly throughout the primary campaign and suddenly, due to the wind at his back after Super Tuesday into the Maine Caucuses, continuining into the Potomac Primaries, he swept the state and won in a landslide of “Reaganesque” proportions. The most dangerous news for the Clinton camp to be divined out of this win is that the states of WI and OH, in terms of blue-collar democrats and independents, are very similar to each other. The only difference is that OH is a semi-open primary, meaning that INDS can vote either in the DEM or the GOP primary, but members of the two major opposing parties cannot cross party lines. But this would only make a difference of a couple of percentage points, important in a tight race, negligible in a blowout.

For this reason, I have extensively analysed the exit polls for WI.

The exit polls are absolutely critical is this state, which is a certain battleground state, but leaning more and more left. Even more interesting is that in this case, the CNN and the FOX exit poll values (breakdown by party affiliation) are absolutely identical:

For the nth time in a row, Obama won more votes in the DEM primary than all the republicans put together in their primary.

DEM Primary: 62% of voters who voted in the DEM primary in WI were registered democrats, making approximately 688,102 votes. Of those democrats, 53% went for Obama, or 364,694 votes. 28% of voters who voted in the DEM primary in WI were INDEPENDENTS, making approximately 310,755 votes. Of those independents, 64% went for Obama, or 198,884 independent votes. 9% of voters who voted in the DEM primary in WI were REPUBLICANS, making approximately 99,886 republican cross-over votes. Of those republicans, 72% went for Obama, or 71,918 republican cross-over votes for Obama alone. Alone from the IND and GOP crossover categories, 270,802 votes went for Obama, 46,680 more than the total vote for John McCain on the republican side, and that is excluding the democrats who voted for Obama (374,582). BTW, Obama swept practically every single category in the exit polls.

On the republican side, the story with McCain is different, and it could be very telling for the entire nation. The myth that he draws massive independent votes is just that: a myth. 23% of the voters who voted in the GOP primary in WI were declared independents, or 93,892 independent votes. Of those INDS, McCain got only 47% of the independent vote, or 44,130 votes, compared to Obama’s 64%. And this is in an open primary, which shows quite clearly for which candidate the INDs broke. True, in this case, Ron Paul got 10% of the IND vote, which could make a case for a stronger IND take for McCain in the GE in a match-up against Obama, with Paul out of the way, but since Paul is so anti-war - as the right has been fond to remind everybody, then statistically speaking, it is much more likely that those Paul-Independents will break in the GE for Obama and not for McCain.

If you take only the INDEPENDENT vote from both parties and add them together, you have 404,648 votes. Of those votes, 49% of all independents went for Obama, 25% went for Clinton, 11% went for McCain, 9% went for Huckabee, and 6% went for other candidates.

This means that at least 74% of the IND vote went to the democratic party and at least 20% of the IND vote went to the GOP. That’s a ratio of 3.7 to 1!

The respective exit poll table is right under the totals for each party.

WISCONSIN (open)

3,304,766 registered voters

Candidate

Votes

%

Margin

Delegates

McCain

224,122

54.90

+17.88

31

Huckabee

151,114

37.02

-

Paul

19,129

4.69

-

Romney

8,083

1.98

-

Thompson

2,705

0.66

-

Giuliani

2,087

0.51

-

Hunter

799

0.20

-

Tancredo

187

0.05

40 Delegates (WTA), 37 from 19 Feb, 3 RNC unpledged.

Total GOP votes cast: 408,226

Total GOP votes cast from Primary 2000: 495,769

There were 87,543 less GOP voters in 2008 than in 2000.

Total GOP votes cast from GE 2004: 1,478,120

Vote by Party ID - WI

McCain

Huck

McCain -RV

Huck - RV

Dem

(5%)

35%

40%

7,150

8,153

GOP

(73%)

58%

36%

172,843

107,282

Ind

(23%)

47%

38%

44,129

35,679

Candidate

Votes

%

Margin

Delegates

Obama

645,554

58.12

+17.37

38

Clinton

452,590

40.75

27

Edwards

6,672

0.60

-

Kucinich

2,643

0.24

-

Biden

754

0.07

-

Gravel

596

0.05

-

Richardson

535

0.05

-

Dodd

498

0.04

-

92 Delegates, 74 from 19 Feb, 18 Superdelegates.

Total DEM votes cast: 1,109,842

Total from primary 2004: 828,364

There were 281,478 more voters in the DEM primary in 2008 as opposed to 2004.

That’s a ratio of 1.34 to 1

Total DEM from GE 2004: 1,489,504

Vote by Party ID - WI

Obama

Clinton

Obama -RV

Clinton - RV

Dem

(62%)

53%

46%

364,694

316,527

GOP

(9%)

72%

28%

71,918

27,968

Ind

(28%)

64%

33%

198,884

102,549

Grand Total from WI (both parties), 2008 primaries: 1,518,068

-----------------------------------------------

HAWAII (closed Caucuses, DEM only)

Candidate

Votes

%

Margin

Delegates

Obama

28,347

75.74%

+52.13

26

Clinton

8,835

23.61%

22

Kucinich

138

0.37%

-

Edwards

41

0.11%

-

29 Delegates, 20 from 19 Feb, 8 Superdelegates.

Total DEM votes cast: 37,361

Total DEM votes from primary 2004: 4,080

There were 33,281 more votes in the DEM primary in 2008 as opposed to 2004.

That’s a ratio of 9 to 1.

Total DEM from GE 2004: 231,708

Grand Total from HI (both parties), 2008 primaries: not yet available

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON STATE (closed – GOP, for the DEMS, only a beauty contest)

3,735,272 total registered voters (No registration by party)
Washington's process is unique; it holds both primaries and caucuses for each party.

Candidate

Votes

%

Margin

Delegates

McCain

3,468

29.52%

+2.06

6*

Huckabee

3,226

27.46%

-

Paul

2,799

23.83%

-

Romney

2,253

19.18%

-

30 Delegates (WTA), 27 from 05 Feb, 3 RNC unpledged.

Washington is still in the process of divvying up delegates.

Total GOP state delegates cast: 11,746

Total GOP votes cast from Primary 2000: 833,865

No comparison possible.

Total GOP votes cast from GE 2004: 1,304,894

----------------------------------------

13 February 2008

THE "POTOMAC" PRIMARIES

 

 

The „Potomac" Primaries:

 

In all three states Obama won big on the DEM side and McCain won big or solid on the GOP side.

In all three states, Obama alone won more votes than all the GOP candidates combined in each respective state.

There were 914,991 more votes in the DEM primaries as opposed to 2004.

There were 271,600 LESS votes in the GOP primaries in MD and VA as opposed to 2000 (no 2000 data for DC available).

 

Obama's huge sweep in VA, usually called a "red" state, must be of great concern for the GOP.

To remind, I projected months ago that VA is
" a perfect example of a state that has completely switched sides. And may be switching back." And the primary from yesterday is just the first piece of evidence in 2008 to back this up. More is to come with Mark Warner up for the senate and Kaine on Obama's short list for a VP. VA will flip in November, guaranteed.

 

Maryland (closed) – 92% reporting

3,110,117 total registered voters -- 55% Democratic, 28% Republican, 17% Other

 

Candidate

Votes

%

Margin

Delegates

McCain

157,906

54.98

+25.72

28

Huckabee

84,021

29.26

 

-

Romney

17,993

6.27

 

-

Paul

17,242

6.00

 

-

Giuliani

3,667

1.28

 

-

Thompson

2,656

0.92

 

-

Hunter

468

0.16

 

-

Tancredo

349

0.12

 

-

 

37 Delegates (WTA), 24 from 12 Feb, 3 RNC unpledged.

 

Total GOP votes cast: 284,302

 

Total GOP votes cast  from Primary 2000: 376,034

 

There were  91,732 less GOP voters in 2008 than in 2000.

 

 

Total GOP votes cast  from GE 2004: 1,024,703

 

Candidate

Votes

%

Margin

Delegates

Obama

439,979

59.45

+22.45

28

Clinton

273,828

37.00

 

18

Edwards

8,487

1.15

 

-

Biden

3,298

0.45

 

-

Richardson

1,856

0.25

 

-

Kucinich

1,685

0.23

 

-

Gravel

713

0.10

 

-

Dodd

687

0.09

 

-

 

99 Delegates, 70 from 12 Feb, 29 Superdelegates.

 

Total DEM votes cast:   729,533

 

Total from primary 2004:  481,476

 

There were 248,057 more voters in the DEM primary in 2008 as opposed to 2004.

That's a ratio of 1.52  to 1

 

Total DEM from GE 2004:  1,334,493

 

Grand Total from MD (both parties), 2008 primaries: 1,013,835

 

-----------------------------------------

 

 

Virigina (closed) -  100% reporting

4,585,828 total registered voters (No registration by party)

 

Candidate

Votes

%

Margin

Delegates

McCain

242,578

50.03

+9.24

60

Huckabee

197,742

40.79

 

-

Paul

21,877

4.51

 

-

Romney

17,023

3.51

 

-

Thompson

3,571

0.74

 

-

Giuliani

2,027

0.42

 

-

 

60 Delegates (WTA), 60 from 12 Feb, 3 RNC unpledged.

 

Total GOP votes cast: 484,818

 

Total GOP votes cast  from Primary 2000: 664,686

 

There were 179,868 less GOP voters in 2008 than in 2000.

 

 

Total GOP votes cast  from GE 2004: 1,716,959

 

Candidate

Votes

%

Margin

Delegates

Obama

619,036

63.61

+28.16

54

Clinton

345,018

35.45

 

29

Edwards

4,973

0.51

 

-

Kucinich

2,348

0.24

 

-

Richardson

1,057

0.11

 

-

Biden

789

0.08

 

-

 

101 Delegates, 83 from 12 Feb, 18 Superdelegates.

 

Total DEM votes cast:   973,221

 

Total from primary 2004:  396,223

 

There were 576,998 more voters in the DEM primary in 2008 as opposed to 2004.

That's a ratio of 2.46 to 1

 

Total DEM from GE 2004:  1,454,742

 

Grand Total from VA (both parties), 2008 primaries: 1,458,039

 

--------------------

 

The „Potomac" Primaries:

 

DC (closed) – 98% reporting

371,199 total registered voters -- 74% Democratic, 8% Republican, 18% Other

 

Candidate

Votes

%

Margin

Delegates

McCain

3,929

67.73

+51.16

27

Huckabee

961

16.57

 

-

Paul

471

8.12

 

-

Romney

350

6.03

 

-

Giuliani

90

1.55

 

-

 

19 Delegates (WTA), 16 from 12 Feb, 3 RNC unpledged.

 

Total GOP votes cast: 5,711

 

Total GOP votes cast  from Primary 2000: no data

 

There were  -- less GOP voters in 2008 than in 2000.

 

 

Total GOP votes cast  from GE 2004: 21,256

 

 

Candidate

Votes

%

Margin

Delegates

Obama

85,534

75.20

+51.18

26

Clinton

27,326

24.02

 

22

Edwards

285

0.25

 

-

Kucinich

172

0.15

 

-

Richardson

132

0.12

 

-

 

38 Delegates, 15 from 12 Feb, 23 Superdelegates.

 

Total DEM votes cast:   123,449

 

Total from primary 2004:  42,513

 

There were 89,936 more voters in the DEM primary in 2008 as opposed to 2004.

That's a ratio of 2.9  to 1

 

Total DEM from GE 2004:  202,970

 

Grand Total from DC (both parties), 2008 primaries: 129,160

 

--------------------------------------------

 

Breakdown, totals and percent by party:

TOTAL VOTES CAST ON "POTOMAC" TUESDAY: 2,601,034

TOTAL DEM VOTES CAST ON "POTOMAC" TUESDAY: 1,826,203 (70.21%)

TOTAL GOP VOTES CAST ON "POTOMAC" TUESDAY: 774,831 (29.79%)

 

Breakdown, totals and percent for the DEMS:

TOTAL DEM VOTES CAST ON "POTOMAC" TUESDAY: 1,826,203 (100%)

TOTAL VOTES for OBAMA: 1,144,549 (62.67%)

TOTAL VOTES for CLINTON: 646,172 (35.38%)

TOTAL VOTES for "OTHER": 35,482 (1.95%)

Margin Obama over Clinton: +27.29%

 

Breakdown, totals and percent for the GOP:

TOTAL GOP VOTES CAST ON "POTOMAC" TUESDAY: 774,831 (100%)

TOTAL VOTES for McCAIN: 404,413 (52.19%)

TOTAL VOTES for HUCKABEE: 282,724 (36.49%)

TOTAL VOTES for "OTHER":  87,694 (11.32%)

Margin McCain over Huckabee: +15.70%

 

 

Breakdown, the major candidates, percentage of the total vote of both parties:

TOTAL VOTES CAST ON "POTOMAC" TUESDAY: 2,601,034 (100%)

TOTAL VOTES for OBAMA: 1,144,549 (44.00%)

TOTAL VOTES for CLINTON: 646,172 (24.84%)

TOTAL VOTES for McCAIN: 404,413 (15.55%)

TOTAL VOTES for HUCKABEE: 282,724 (10.87%)

TOTAL VOTES for "OTHER" - GOP:  87,694 (3.37%)

TOTAL VOTES for "OTHER" - DEM: 35,482 (1.37%)