18 December 2007

Huckaboom 2 -or- the Empire does NOT strike back!

Update 18 December 2007: Mike Huckabee is throwing the GOP nomination race wide open!

(the shaded fields are new polls since the last Huckaboom post)

 

State

Pollster

date

Huck!

Giuliani

McCain

Romney

Thompson

SC+

Rasmussen

12/18

23%

11%

12%

23%

12%

CA

SUSA

12/17

20%

28%

14%

16%

13%

FLA

SUSA

12/17

24%

29%

10%

20%

8%

FLA+

Datamar+

12/16

25%

21%

10%

19%

9%

GA

Strategic Vision

12/10

23%

20%

11%

10%

17%

IA

Strategic Vision

12/10

30%

10%

5%

25%

13%

IA

Rasmussen

12/10

39%

8%

6%

23%

8%

IA

Mason-Dixon

12/06

32%

5%

7%

20%

11%

IA

Princeton Survey

12/06

39%

9%

6%

17%

10%

SC*

CNN

12/12

24%

16%

13%

16%

17%

TX

IVR

12/12

29%

14%

7%

14%

16%

FLA

Rasmussen

12/13

27%

19%

6%

23%

9%

AK**

KTUU.com

12/11

22%

14%

5%

9%

12%

NH***

Rasmussen

12/11

14%

15%

18%

33%

---

 

*In the SC Poll, Ron Paul also garnered 11%.

**In the AK Poll, Ron Paul WINS with 29%, with Huckabee a close second at 22%.

***In the NH poll, Ron Paul also received 8%.

+ In both this and SC FLA poll, Ron Paul also received 5%.

 

Mike Huckabee is now leading solidly in IA, SC (in one poll ahead, in one poll tied), TX & GA.

In FLA, the polls are split between Huck (2 polls) and Giuliani (1 poll): advantage Huckabee.

He is second behind Ron Paul in AK!

NH is firmly in Romney's hands.

 

1 poll with SIX candidates in double-digits.

4 polls with FIVE candidates in double-digits.

9 polls with FOUR candidates in double-digits.

 

In the latest SUSA theoretical Huckabee-Clinton match-up in IA, it is a deat heat at 46%,46%.

However, Obama swamps the GOP competition in the same poll (to come out on Friday at the latest)

 

Huck's jump in California is the biggest move of the week. Guiliani's lead has shrunk to 8 points and there are five candidates with double digit percentages.

 

Watch the midwest states closely: if Giuliani's numbers start to sink rapidly in MI, PA, IN and OH, then stick a fork in him, he's done. It would also be wise to poll Idaho and Wyoming.

 

The GOP race for the nomination is far more fluid than I thought. If the race procedes as it now is, then none of the candidates will amass enough delegates to go over the top on the first ballot at the convention in 2008.

16 December 2007

Huckaboom!!!

Huckaboom!!

And no Huckabust in sight!!

 

State

Pollster

date

Huck!

Giuliani

McCain

Romney

Thompson

GA

Strategic Vision

12/10

23%

20%

11%

10%

17%

IA

Strategic Vision

12/10

30%

10%

5%

25%

13%

IA

Rasmussen

12/10

39%

8%

6%

23%

8%

IA

Mason-Dixon

12/06

32%

5%

7%

20%

11%

IA

Princeton Survey

12/06

39%

9%

6%

17%

10%

SC*

CNN

12/12

24%

16%

13%

16%

17%

TX

IVR

12/12

29%

14%

7%

14%

16%

FLA

Rasmussen

12/13

27%

19%

6%

23%

9%

AK**

KTUU.com

12/11

22%

14%

5%

9%

12%

NH***

Rasmussen

12/11

14%

15%

18%

33%

---

 

*In the SC Poll, Ron Paul also garnered 11%.

**In the AK Poll, Ron Paul WINS with 29%, with Huckabee a close second at 22%.

***In the NH poll, Ron Paul also received 8%.

 

Mike Huckabee is now leading solidly in IA, SC, TX, GA and FLA.

He is second behind Ron Paul in AK!

 

He is not really making a dent in HN, where Romney appears to have locked the state up for the nomination. Huckabee will survive to go on to compete on Super Tuesday and may end up being THE surprise of 2008. A matchup Huckabee vs. Clinton or Huckabee vs. Obama is now a possibility at this point in time.

 

Watch the midwest states closely: if Giuliani's numbers start to sink rapidly in MI, PA, IN and OH, then stick a fork in him, he's done.

 

The GOP race for the nomination is far more fluid than I thought and we may go into the convention with these 5 candidates in double digits, not one of which will have the 50%+1 needed to lock up the nomination on the first ballot.