26 November 2007

KANSAS - or OZ?

“MAYBE WE ARE ALL IN OZ AND DON'T KNOW IT”

 

-or-

Jubilation in the Clinton and Obama camps.
Concerned faces within the GOP

You all may want to check out the
SUSA poll for Kansas, the results are just not to be believed. If this poll is just halfway correct, then the GOP is in deep doo-doo:

 SUSA, data collected 11/09-11/11,
published 11/26:

Kansas

State

Pollster

Date

Clinton

Giuliani

Obama

Giuliani

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KS

SUSA

11/26

43

49

42

47

 

State

Pollster

Date

Clinton

Romney

Obama

Romney

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KS

SUSA

11/26

48

44

46

43

 

State

Pollster

Date

Clinton

McCain

Obama

McCain

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KS

SUSA

11/26

55

38

53

37

 

The data is at the bottom of the table above as I will be recording more KS polls when they come in.  The SUSA data was collected from 11/09-11/11 and published 11/26:

First, 2 of four republicans win. This is no surprise. But 2 of 4 republicans also lose. This is a huge surprise. The margin with Giuliani is shockingly narrow. A margin of +6 is barely out of the margin of error, but it is indeed a win. Pondering all those GOPers constantly scoffing at polls with Clinton 6-8 points up on Giuliani always call it a "bare win", "scraping by" and some such nonsense. Well, if that is the case, then Giuliani is "scraping by" in the bastion of Kansas. Were the GOP in good shape, Clinton should be about 20 points behind in this state, even at this early stage in the game. A minus 6 for her is just unbelievable.

Second, both DEMS beat Mike Huckabee, which one would not expect in such a conservative state. That they both beat Romney is part of a large pattern we are seeing all over the nation, which is why I am sure the GOP hopes that Romney does not sweep both early primaries.

Third, in comparison to almost all other polls, in the crosstabs, Clinton is winning the young vote in KS, where she usually wins the senior vote. And the poll was taken after her stumbling performance at the October 30th debate and BEFORE her comeback on November 15th.

Fourth, the fact that Obama does almost as well as Clinton in KS says something about the demographic mix of this state, which goes (as praise) in line with it's abolishionist-history of development. However, one usually hears the word ultraconservative and can hardly believe that a black liberal could cut up so well in KS.

Now, this is just one poll and can very well be an outlier. And I do not think that Clinton is going to win in KS. However, even if just part of this poll is on the money, then the GOP is in big trouble as KS is deep within the core of what should be untouchable GOP territory. If the GOP is forced to divert resources to states like KS or UT or WY, then it is lights out in 2008. A comparison could be made with having a poll in Massachusetts something like Clinton 48 / Giuliani 44!

It can also be that the core right-wing voters are desperately trying to send the GOP a message about electability: the majority of KS voters apparently think that McCain has the best chance of winning, in spite of his low standings in the 5-man dogfight for the republican nomination.

So, let's consider the GOP states where the numbers are just too close and too uncomfortable for the GOP:

OH
VA
NC
SC
GA
TN
KY
MO
OK
KS

(And there are a slew of GOP states out there that no one has polled yet, but after Kansas, you can be guaranteed they will start polling)

And compare that with the DEM states that are too close and uncomfortable for the DEMS:

OR
CT
WI

 

The numbers game speaks for itself.

 

For comparison purposes, the percentages of the last 6 cycles:

 

YEAR

GOP

DEM

MARGIN

2004

62.00

36.62

25.38

2000

58.04

37.24

20.80

1996

54.29

36.08

18.21

1992

38.88

33.74

5.14

1988

55.79

42.56

13.23

1984

66.27

32.60

33.67

AVERAGE

55.88

36.47

+19.41



Once again, to re-iterate, I do not think that KS can be won for the DEMS, but if the margin stays this lean, then the GOP is in worse shape
than I thought.

DEM and GOP November 20 financial reports

The Nov. 20 financial reports for both major party campaign committees are in:

 

Committee

October Receipts

October Disbursements

October Cash-on-Hand

October Debts & Obligations

DSCC (est.)

$3,100,000

$2,600,000

$23,400,000

$2,500,000

NRSC (est.)

$2,900,000

$1,700,000

$9,500,000

$0

DCCC

$4,074,887.88

$3,196,607.00

$29,212,545.58

$2,082,500.00

NRCC

$3,567,461.32

$2,609,400.59

$2,556,566.34

$3,625,000

DNC

$5,558,909.70

$5,555,225.16

$3,257,856.75

$1,735,791.67

RNC

$8,467,022.10

$7,376,686.10

$17,633,966.94

$0

Total
Democrats

$12,733,797.58

$11,351,832.16

$55,870,402.33

$6,318,291.67

Total
Republicans

$14,934,483.42

$11,686,086.69

$29,690,533.28

$3,625,000

At this point, the Democratic committees hold a $26,179,869.05 advantage over their Republican rivals in cash-on-hand, about $2 million less than it's lead in last month's reports. When debts and obligations are taken into account, the Democratic committees' advantage is $23,486,577.38, CoH - only about $500,000 less than their lead last month (due to Democrats' efforts to pay down debts).

It's going to be very hard for the GOP to defend open seats with this much of a money gap between the two parties, much less to shoot money into potentially vulnerable DEM seats.

This is a complete reversal from the last 7 congressional election cycles: until now, the GOP was flush with cash and the DEMS were always struggling to fill their coffers with money. Now the situation is reversed. This coupled with a rash of sudden resignations from well known GOP congressmen and senators opens up the race in 2008 in a number of ways.